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#1
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 19,261 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 ![]() |
2011 SE CONUS/Bahamas Development Discussion Thread
The Map below shows the geographical area allowed for discussion in this thread. ![]() In here we will discussion and post about possible development of tropical systems prior to their classification to INVEST status by the NHC. Origin/Reason for development: African Waves aka Eastern Waves Low Pressure areas Frontal Boundaries ***Let the discussion flow well, unhindered by the violation of the forum rules.*** Thanks! -------------------- |
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#2
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 ![]() |
since 94L was DEACTIVATED...i will put this here...
QUOTE 000 FXUS62 KILM 081437 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1037 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CUBA TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND A DIVERSE SET OF SOLUTIONS EXISTS WITH THE MODELS AT THIS POINT. THE NAM TRIES TO INTENSIFY SYSTEM AND BRING IT NORTH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI AFTN AND CONTINUING UP THE COAST REACHING OFF THE GA COAST BY SAT MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING AN INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN...WITH A WEAKER SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW UP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE LOW REACHES OVER 350 MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH MAIN EFFECTS OF WEATHER COMING FROM THE COLD FRONT RATHER THAN THIS TROPICAL LOW. A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WHICH WILL HELP TO STEER THE LOW NORTHWARD INITIALLY BUT SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD HELP TO STEER SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND KICK FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WE MAY SEE A PUSH OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP TO COME FROM COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BOTH THE TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM LOCAL AREA MON INTO TUES. QUOTE 000 FXUS62 KCHS 081502 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1102 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. ON-THE-OTHER-HAND THE NAM SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OBVIOUSLY THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE TREMENDOUSLY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN...WILL FAVOR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. --- 12Z NAM This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 8 2011, 12:11 PM |
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
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#4
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 ![]() |
That is interesting on the NAM, showing the new tropical low developing near the Bahamas and moving north, passing east of the Carolinas. for now anyways, NWS for the coastal Carolina areas are sticking with the global model solutions which keep the system well off shore(GOM TUTT low initially steering the system northward, then the GL's shortwave that is kicking off severe WX the next few days helping to keep the system well off shore)... |
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
for now anyways, NWS for the coastal Carolina areas are sticking with the global model solutions which keep the system well off shore(GOM TUTT low initially steering the system northward, then the GL's shortwave that is kicking off severe WX the next few days helping to keep the system well off shore)... The low that will move through the NYC area sunday with showers will have a cold front moving off the carolinas sunday night, which would cause that low to take a more NE track offshore the EC early next week. |
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#6
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 ![]() |
The low that will move through the NYC area sunday with showers will have a cold front moving off the carolinas sunday night, which would cause that low to take a more NE track offshore the EC early next week. yes, but even tho it will be a relatively weak and shallow storm, im pretty sure its more of a case where the shortwave itself is causing the steering rather then the cold front... here is an example... @84hr the TUTT low in the NE GOM kicks the systems north out of the bahamas.... @120hr the shortwave moving thru the NE takes over and steers the storm OTS(plus shears it to bits,lol) This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 8 2011, 01:58 PM |
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
yes, but even tho it will be a relatively weak and shallow storm, im pretty sure its more of a case where the shortwave itself is causing the steering rather then the cold front... here is an example... @84hr the TUTT low in the NE GOM kicks the systems north out of the bahamas.... @120hr the shortwave moving thru the NE takes over and steers the storm OTS(plus shears it to bits,lol) Thanks very much for supplying those model maps for me to read. I noticed on the 6/13 model map, another low forming in the Gulf. That low may also have to be watched. |
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
Most models I've seen do appear to show some sort of a low pressure off the SE coast, but I'm wondering if the NAM is overdoing this storm... it seems that for the last 2 days, it intensified the storm near Florida towards the end of almost every run, trending weaker as that time frame gets closer. For example, yesterday's 06z/12z runs had a decently organized storm near Florida at 18z Friday, while today's 12z/18z runs have a weaker, further east and less organized storm at 18z Friday.
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#9
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 ![]() |
Most models I've seen do appear to show some sort of a low pressure off the SE coast, but I'm wondering if the NAM is overdoing this storm... it seems that for the last 2 days, it intensified the storm near Florida towards the end of almost every run, trending weaker as that time frame gets closer. For example, yesterday's 06z/12z runs had a decently organized storm near Florida at 18z Friday, while today's 12z/18z runs have a weaker, further east and less organized storm at 18z Friday. the emc/ncep tracking charts are down, anyways, today's 12Z NAM was strongest(by a few mb's and some decent surface wind barbs in the RFQ)flipping thru 5 or so runs...not sure im buying it tho,NAM has nailed systems before but not much global agreement this time around(if ECMWF was onboard it'd be a different story, CMC & NOGAPS not so much)... --- QUOTE 000
FXUS62 KCHS 082007 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 407 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY AS MANY MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. PREFER TO FOLLOW MORE OF A GFS TRACK AT THIS POINT WHICH INDICATES A TRACK WELL OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO GET CLOSE TO THE COAST WOULD NOT BE TROPICAL GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. |
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#10
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 8,938 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 ![]() |
Doubt that anything significant develops from it. NAM has been overdoing the Caribbean situation for a week now.
Tropics should be quiet for another two weeks or so... ![]() -------------------- Millersville University Meteorology Major
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#11
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,958 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
NAM 18z at hr 84.
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
NAM 18z at hr 84. ![]() That developing low looks really interesting on the NAM. The low could merge with the low moving across the NE this weekend and become an ocean storm next week well off the EC. This post has been edited by east coast storm: Jun 8 2011, 09:06 PM |
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
The 06z NAM significantly backed down from the earlier runs. Never reaches 1008 mb, while some of yesterday's runs almost had its pressure into the 990s.
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
The 06z NAM significantly backed down from the earlier runs. Never reaches 1008 mb, while some of yesterday's runs almost had its pressure into the 990s. This mornings visible loop still shows a nice circulation (former 94L) between bermuda and South Carolina. Looks to be moving slowly NE. |
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#15
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 19,261 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 ![]() |
This mornings visible loop still shows a nice circulation (former 94L) between bermuda and South Carolina. Looks to be moving slowly NE. Nothing that could cause any effects to the east coast, aside from some waves, will arise from that. Whatever deepens, would most likely be out in the open Atlantic past Bermuda. -------------------- |
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
Nothing that could cause any effects to the east coast, aside from some waves, will arise from that. Whatever deepens, would most likely be out in the open Atlantic past Bermuda. Thank you for replying. I agree. I think it would be mainly an Ocean storm in the N. Atlantic this coming week. |
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
The 06z NAM significantly backed down from the earlier runs. Never reaches 1008 mb, while some of yesterday's runs almost had its pressure into the 990s. I was looking at the 6Z GFS run and as you know shows a low spinning up of the SE coast for the June 23 -24th time frame drifting south, east of the Florida coast and then moving back north up the EC offshore. Whether that event accually occurs is anyones guess, but that run is interesting to look at anyway. |
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#18
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 19,261 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 ![]() |
12Z ECMWF EPS develops a pretty nice and decent subtropical storm off the coast of the outter banks inabout 8 days or so.
Will monitor it to see if there´s consistency and see if the the deterministic ECMWF picks it up as well, to see if something will actually develop next week. The 06Z GFS does the samething basically, but loops the system back SW towards the coast, then north and then NE out to sea again. -------------------- |
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#19
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 636 Joined: 30-August 10 From: Greenville, NC Member No.: 23,515 ![]() |
12Z ECMWF EPS develops a pretty nice and decent subtropical storm off the coast of the outter banks inabout 8 days or so. Will monitor it to see if there´s consistency and see if the the deterministic ECMWF picks it up as well, to see if something will actually develop next week. The 06Z GFS does the samething basically, but loops the system back SW towards the coast, then north and then NE out to sea again. As per the norm, I have nothing of substance to offer to the convo. Thanks for the heads up though, I will certainly be monitoring this thread. My daughter is going to camp out on the Pamlico river next week. ![]() This post has been edited by Nicole: Jun 13 2011, 09:24 PM -------------------- Don't try to argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. If it is that unbelievable... it is probably too good to be true! |
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
12Z ECMWF EPS develops a pretty nice and decent subtropical storm off the coast of the outter banks inabout 8 days or so. Will monitor it to see if there´s consistency and see if the the deterministic ECMWF picks it up as well, to see if something will actually develop next week. The 06Z GFS does the samething basically, but loops the system back SW towards the coast, then north and then NE out to sea again. Here is something interesting. The 12Z GFS run develops a weak low in the gulf in the June 27-28 timeframe, it moves east along the gulf coast and makes a left turn off the Georgia coast, passing east of North Carolina, moving NE basically OTS but also intensifying in the gulf stream along about Saturday July 2. Its an interesting scenerio. |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 22nd April 2018 - 01:42 AM |