Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs Options

[Phased Vort]

2011 SE CONUS/Bahamas Development Discussion Thread

The Map below shows the geographical area allowed for discussion in this thread.




In here we will discussion and post about possible development of tropical systems prior to their classification to INVEST status by the NHC.

Origin/Reason for development:
African Waves aka Eastern Waves
Low Pressure areas
Frontal Boundaries

***Let the discussion flow well, unhindered by the violation of the forum rules.***
Thanks!

[MAC292OH10]

since 94L was DEACTIVATED...i will put this here...

000
FXUS62 KILM 081437
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1037 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CUBA TONIGHT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND A DIVERSE SET OF SOLUTIONS EXISTS
WITH THE MODELS AT THIS POINT. THE NAM TRIES TO INTENSIFY SYSTEM AND
BRING IT NORTH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI AFTN AND
CONTINUING UP THE COAST REACHING OFF THE GA COAST BY SAT MORNING.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING AN INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN...WITH A WEAKER
SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW UP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND
CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE LOW REACHES OVER 350 MILES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING WHILE A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH MAIN
EFFECTS OF WEATHER COMING FROM THE COLD FRONT RATHER THAN THIS
TROPICAL LOW. A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WHICH WILL HELP TO STEER THE LOW NORTHWARD INITIALLY BUT
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD HELP TO STEER SYSTEM FARTHER
EAST AND KICK FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WE
MAY SEE A PUSH OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP TO COME FROM COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BOTH THE
TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AWAY
FROM LOCAL AREA MON INTO TUES.

000
FXUS62 KCHS 081502
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1102 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
ON-THE-OTHER-HAND THE NAM SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTHWARD
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. OBVIOUSLY THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A DRASTICALLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ALONG
WITH THE TREMENDOUSLY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH
OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN...WILL FAVOR THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

---

12Z NAM










This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 8 2011, 12:11 PM

[east coast storm]

since 94L was DEACTIVATED...i will put this here...
---

12Z NAM

That is interesting on the NAM, showing the new tropical low developing near the
Bahamas and moving north, passing east of the Carolinas.

[MAC292OH10]

That is interesting on the NAM, showing the new tropical low developing near the
Bahamas and moving north, passing east of the Carolinas.

for now anyways, NWS for the coastal Carolina areas are sticking with the global model solutions which keep the system well off shore(GOM TUTT low initially steering the system northward, then the GL's shortwave that is kicking off severe WX the next few days helping to keep the system well off shore)...

[east coast storm]

for now anyways, NWS for the coastal Carolina areas are sticking with the global model solutions which keep the system well off shore(GOM TUTT low initially steering the system northward, then the GL's shortwave that is kicking off severe WX the next few days helping to keep the system well off shore)...

The low that will move through the NYC area sunday with showers will have a cold
front moving off the carolinas sunday night, which would cause that low to take
a more NE track offshore the EC early next week.

[MAC292OH10]

The low that will move through the NYC area sunday with showers will have a cold
front moving off the carolinas sunday night, which would cause that low to take
a more NE track offshore the EC early next week.

yes, but even tho it will be a relatively weak and shallow storm, im pretty sure its more of a case where the shortwave itself is causing the steering rather then the cold front...

here is an example...
@84hr the TUTT low in the NE GOM kicks the systems north out of the bahamas....






@120hr the shortwave moving thru the NE takes over and steers the storm OTS(plus shears it to bits,lol)





This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 8 2011, 01:58 PM

[east coast storm]

yes, but even tho it will be a relatively weak and shallow storm, im pretty sure its more of a case where the shortwave itself is causing the steering rather then the cold front...

here is an example...
@84hr the TUTT low in the NE GOM kicks the systems north out of the bahamas....






@120hr the shortwave moving thru the NE takes over and steers the storm OTS(plus shears it to bits,lol)

Thanks very much for supplying those model maps for me to read. I noticed on the 6/13
model map, another low forming in the Gulf. That low may also have to be watched.

[NYCSuburbs]

Most models I've seen do appear to show some sort of a low pressure off the SE coast, but I'm wondering if the NAM is overdoing this storm... it seems that for the last 2 days, it intensified the storm near Florida towards the end of almost every run, trending weaker as that time frame gets closer. For example, yesterday's 06z/12z runs had a decently organized storm near Florida at 18z Friday, while today's 12z/18z runs have a weaker, further east and less organized storm at 18z Friday.

[MAC292OH10]

Most models I've seen do appear to show some sort of a low pressure off the SE coast, but I'm wondering if the NAM is overdoing this storm... it seems that for the last 2 days, it intensified the storm near Florida towards the end of almost every run, trending weaker as that time frame gets closer. For example, yesterday's 06z/12z runs had a decently organized storm near Florida at 18z Friday, while today's 12z/18z runs have a weaker, further east and less organized storm at 18z Friday.

the emc/ncep tracking charts are down, anyways, today's 12Z NAM was strongest(by a few mb's and some decent surface wind barbs in the RFQ)flipping thru 5 or so runs...not sure im buying it tho,NAM has nailed systems before but not much global agreement this time around(if ECMWF was onboard it'd be a different story, CMC & NOGAPS not so much)...

---

000
FXUS62 KCHS 082007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
TRICKY AS MANY MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. PREFER TO FOLLOW MORE
OF A GFS TRACK AT THIS POINT WHICH INDICATES A TRACK WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO GET CLOSE TO
THE COAST WOULD NOT BE TROPICAL GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

[Superstorm93]

Doubt that anything significant develops from it. NAM has been overdoing the Caribbean situation for a week now.

Tropics should be quiet for another two weeks or so...

[NorEaster07]

NAM 18z at hr 84.

[east coast storm]

NAM 18z at hr 84.

That developing low looks really interesting on the NAM. The low could merge with
the low moving across the NE this weekend and become an ocean storm next
week well off the EC.

This post has been edited by east coast storm: Jun 8 2011, 09:06 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

The 06z NAM significantly backed down from the earlier runs. Never reaches 1008 mb, while some of yesterday's runs almost had its pressure into the 990s.

[east coast storm]

The 06z NAM significantly backed down from the earlier runs. Never reaches 1008 mb, while some of yesterday's runs almost had its pressure into the 990s.

This mornings visible loop still shows a nice circulation (former 94L) between
bermuda and South Carolina. Looks to be moving slowly NE.

[Phased Vort]

This mornings visible loop still shows a nice circulation (former 94L) between
bermuda and South Carolina. Looks to be moving slowly NE.

Nothing that could cause any effects to the east coast, aside from some waves, will arise from that.

Whatever deepens, would most likely be out in the open Atlantic past Bermuda.

[east coast storm]

Nothing that could cause any effects to the east coast, aside from some waves, will arise from that.

Whatever deepens, would most likely be out in the open Atlantic past Bermuda.

Thank you for replying. I agree. I think it would be mainly an Ocean storm
in the N. Atlantic this coming week.

[east coast storm]

The 06z NAM significantly backed down from the earlier runs. Never reaches 1008 mb, while some of yesterday's runs almost had its pressure into the 990s.

I was looking at the 6Z GFS run and as you know shows a low spinning up of the
SE coast for the June 23 -24th time frame drifting south, east of the Florida coast
and then moving back north up the EC offshore. Whether that event accually
occurs is anyones guess, but that run is interesting to look at anyway.

[Phased Vort]

12Z ECMWF EPS develops a pretty nice and decent subtropical storm off the coast of the outter banks inabout 8 days or so.

Will monitor it to see if there´s consistency and see if the the deterministic ECMWF picks it up as well, to see if something will actually develop next week.


The 06Z GFS does the samething basically, but loops the system back SW towards the coast, then north and then NE out to sea again.

[Nicole]

12Z ECMWF EPS develops a pretty nice and decent subtropical storm off the coast of the outter banks inabout 8 days or so.

Will monitor it to see if there´s consistency and see if the the deterministic ECMWF picks it up as well, to see if something will actually develop next week.
The 06Z GFS does the samething basically, but loops the system back SW towards the coast, then north and then NE out to sea again.

As per the norm, I have nothing of substance to offer to the convo. Thanks for the heads up though, I will certainly be monitoring this thread. My daughter is going to camp out on the Pamlico river next week.

This post has been edited by Nicole: Jun 13 2011, 09:24 PM

[east coast storm]

12Z ECMWF EPS develops a pretty nice and decent subtropical storm off the coast of the outter banks inabout 8 days or so.

Will monitor it to see if there´s consistency and see if the the deterministic ECMWF picks it up as well, to see if something will actually develop next week.
The 06Z GFS does the samething basically, but loops the system back SW towards the coast, then north and then NE out to sea again.

Here is something interesting. The 12Z GFS run develops a weak low in the gulf in
the June 27-28 timeframe, it moves east along the gulf coast and makes a left
turn off the Georgia coast, passing east of North Carolina, moving NE basically
OTS but also intensifying in the gulf stream along about Saturday July 2.
Its an interesting scenerio.