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> Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs
jdrenken
post Oct 6 2011, 11:05 PM
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Frank's thoughts


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KSpring1
post Oct 7 2011, 02:20 PM
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RICHMOND, VA: Reliable local weather forecaster predicts "open tropical wave" which will bring "moisture" (in the form of about 1-2 inches) here to mid-atlantic (RIC) by late Tues. night and all day Wednesday.
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Fire/Rescue
post Oct 7 2011, 08:30 PM
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QUOTE(KSpring1 @ Oct 7 2011, 03:20 PM) *
RICHMOND, VA: Reliable local weather forecaster predicts "open tropical wave" which will bring "moisture" (in the form of about 1-2 inches) here to mid-atlantic (RIC) by late Tues. night and all day Wednesday.

Hopefully it remains just a 1-2 incher, now we dont need ANY more rain for a bit......but i think we can handle an inch or two (rather then another 4-8) wacko.gif
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jdrenken
post Oct 8 2011, 05:32 PM
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QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 1215 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
TROUGH HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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FORECASTER STEWART


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jdrenken
post Oct 8 2011, 05:35 PM
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Wave is from Honduras to Cuba


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KSpring1
post Oct 10 2011, 05:07 PM
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RICHMOND, VA: local weather now has a second low forming along SE coast while the other one moves inland. We are still predicted to get about 1 inch, though. So, no further tropical development, I guess.
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WEATHERFREAK
post Oct 10 2011, 10:11 PM
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The Euro this morning tries to break off an ULL(from weekend trough) at 30 degrees North and 64 degrees West(early next week) and pushes it southeastwards towards the Bahama's where it meanders for several days.

Wonder if that'll form into anything...


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east coast storm
post Oct 12 2011, 01:39 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Oct 10 2011, 11:11 PM) *
The Euro this morning tries to break off an ULL(from weekend trough) at 30 degrees North and 64 degrees West(early next week) and pushes it southeastwards towards the Bahama's where it meanders for several days.

Wonder if that'll form into anything...

Todays 12Z GFS shows a low (possibly tropical) moving north offshore the EC and turning into a
monster ocean storm ( hour 384) along about 10/28. The model runs are
always interesting to look at.
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 12 2011, 07:23 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Oct 12 2011, 02:39 PM) *
Todays 12Z GFS shows a low (possibly tropical) moving north offshore the EC and turning into a
monster ocean storm ( hour 384) along about 10/28. The model runs are
always interesting to look at.


In the 18z run it didn't show the monster low off the NE coast, but did show the development in the Caribbean as did the 12z run. I posted images of both runs in the other thread.
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east coast storm
post Oct 12 2011, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Oct 12 2011, 08:23 PM) *
In the 18z run it didn't show the monster low off the NE coast, but did show the development in the Caribbean as did the 12z run. I posted images of both runs in the other thread.

The 18Z run still shows that low winding up into a pretty good (tropical?) storm.
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rainstorm
post Nov 15 2011, 07:24 AM
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GFS shows late season subtropical or tropical storm. canadian also shows the same possibility.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr

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convectivecloud6
post Nov 30 2011, 03:47 PM
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QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Probably a last off-season subtropical cyclone for the active 2011 season?

This post has been edited by convectivecloud6: Nov 30 2011, 03:48 PM
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