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> Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs
goblue96
post Jun 16 2011, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jun 16 2011, 02:55 PM) *
Here is something interesting. The 12Z GFS run develops a weak low in the gulf in
the June 27-28 timeframe, it moves east along the gulf coast and makes a left
turn off the Georgia coast, passing east of North Carolina, moving NE basically
OTS but also intensifying in the gulf stream along about Saturday July 2.
Its an interesting scenerio.


It's been there for awhile. It's a question of intensity and where it goes in the gulf.


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First Day above 60: April 2

First Day above 65: April 10

First Day above 70: April 13

First Day above 75: April 13

First Day above 80: May 12

First Day above 85: May 12

First Day above 90:

First Day above 95:

Days 90+:
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east coast storm
post Jun 16 2011, 05:29 PM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Jun 16 2011, 04:17 PM) *
It's been there for awhile. It's a question of intensity and where it goes in the gulf.

As you know the GFS and Canadian are indicating that Gulf low would take a
track going east from the Texas coast to the Fla. panhandle then NE to
off the SE coast. It would be interesting to see what happens.
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goblue96
post Jun 16 2011, 05:46 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jun 16 2011, 06:29 PM) *
As you know the GFS and Canadian are indicating that Gulf low would take a
track going east from the Texas coast to the Fla. panhandle then NE to
off the SE coast. It would be interesting to see what happens.


Today has been really the first day that it has arced along the gulf. Before today, it would make landfall and keep plowing north.


--------------------
First Day above 60: April 2

First Day above 65: April 10

First Day above 70: April 13

First Day above 75: April 13

First Day above 80: May 12

First Day above 85: May 12

First Day above 90:

First Day above 95:

Days 90+:
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east coast storm
post Jun 16 2011, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Jun 16 2011, 06:46 PM) *
Today has been really the first day that it has arced along the gulf. Before today, it would make landfall and keep plowing north.

Guess what Buddy. I looked at the 18Z GFS and you probably know that
run does not even take the gulf low to the EC it takes the low north up
to near Tennessee. We know it will probably change in future runs.
There will be a low developing off the Carolinas next week. That
could also be interesting.
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shane o mac
post Jun 16 2011, 08:37 PM
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It looks like it can develop but it will be post tropical the one developing off the coast of carolinas but the one in the gulf could be a different story as u know there is a upper level trouph in the eastern usa at this time period and that usually pushes the chances of tropical development to the gulf and east pacific then it usally switches to the eastern seaboard during the middle of the season for chances of tropical activity not saying it wont happen it just not likely this early in the game something to watch tho ..


And welcome back everybody back for some tropical storm and hurricane talk again this year took the snow year off since we had just about nothing lol have fun this year and no trash talk ;0 and stay safe
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east coast storm
post Jun 16 2011, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Jun 16 2011, 09:37 PM) *
It looks like it can develop but it will be post tropical the one developing off the coast of carolinas but the one in the gulf could be a different story as u know there is a upper level trouph in the eastern usa at this time period and that usually pushes the chances of tropical development to the gulf and east pacific then it usally switches to the eastern seaboard during the middle of the season for chances of tropical activity not saying it wont happen it just not likely this early in the game something to watch tho ..
And welcome back everybody back for some tropical storm and hurricane talk again this year took the snow year off since we had just about nothing lol have fun this year and no trash talk ;0 and stay safe

Thank you for replying. When the wave of low pressue moves off the Carolina
coast next week, you never know. The gulf stream ocean temperature
is in the 80s, so any low that moves off the SE coast in June could develop
tropically.
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shane o mac
post Jun 16 2011, 09:43 PM
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I agree but it will weaken sustancaly when it moves off the gulf stream but nether the less there will be a low pressure system for sure but how strong will it be tropical and where is it going to be is anybodys guess till we get farther in
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goblue96
post Jun 16 2011, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jun 16 2011, 08:39 PM) *
Guess what Buddy. I looked at the 18Z GFS and you probably know that
run does not even take the gulf low to the EC it takes the low north up
to near Tennessee. We know it will probably change in future runs.
There will be a low developing off the Carolinas next week. That
could also be interesting.



It's flopped around so many different ways and taken different tracks. It's almost like following a winter storm at this point. The only difference between this storm and a winter storm is we know this storm will be all rain. Just a question of how much and where does it fall.


--------------------
First Day above 60: April 2

First Day above 65: April 10

First Day above 70: April 13

First Day above 75: April 13

First Day above 80: May 12

First Day above 85: May 12

First Day above 90:

First Day above 95:

Days 90+:
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east coast storm
post Jun 17 2011, 09:21 PM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Jun 16 2011, 10:59 PM) *
It's flopped around so many different ways and taken different tracks. It's almost like following a winter storm at this point. The only difference between this storm and a winter storm is we know this storm will be all rain. Just a question of how much and where does it fall.

Todays 18Z GFS continues to show a low spinning up in the ocean
off the Georgia coast in the 6/30 timeframe and moving up
east of the NC coast in the 7/1 timeframe.
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east coast storm
post Jun 20 2011, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Jun 16 2011, 09:37 PM) *
It looks like it can develop but it will be post tropical the one developing off the coast of carolinas but the one in the gulf could be a different story as u know there is a upper level trouph in the eastern usa at this time period and that usually pushes the chances of tropical development to the gulf and east pacific then it usally switches to the eastern seaboard during the middle of the season for chances of tropical activity not saying it wont happen it just not likely this early in the game something to watch tho ..
And welcome back everybody back for some tropical storm and hurricane talk again this year took the snow year off since we had just about nothing lol have fun this year and no trash talk ;0 and stay safe

Todays 6Z GFS run and the Canadian are showing the low spinning up off the SE coast
I know the GFS runs have been showing that low on and off for a while now, so
it would be interesting to see what happens in the June 29 -30 timeframe.
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east coast storm
post Jun 20 2011, 05:07 PM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Jun 16 2011, 10:59 PM) *
It's flopped around so many different ways and taken different tracks. It's almost like following a winter storm at this point. The only difference between this storm and a winter storm is we know this storm will be all rain. Just a question of how much and where does it fall.

The 18Z GFS is still showing a weak low forming in the gulf next week , moving NE
and spinning up off the SE coast later next week. June 29-30 could still be an
interesting time frame.
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Majorpotter
post Jun 22 2011, 07:10 PM
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I think I am about ready for a good TS to come to Georgia, If the heat dont kill us the smoke is!!!!!!!!

This post has been edited by Majorpotter: Jun 22 2011, 07:10 PM


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NorEaster07
post Jun 24 2011, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE(Majorpotter @ Jun 22 2011, 08:10 PM) *
I think I am about ready for a good TS to come to Georgia, If the heat dont kill us the smoke is!!!!!!!!


Well... the latest 18zGFS from today long long range comes close..lol

I left the very last frame off as a NorthEast tease.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 24 2011, 06:21 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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rainstorm
post Jun 24 2011, 08:31 PM
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thats looks like a winterlike pattern with a low pressure developing on a front.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 26 2011, 07:40 AM
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Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 26 2011, 07:40 AM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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east coast storm
post Jun 27 2011, 09:38 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 24 2011, 07:20 PM) *
Well... the latest 18zGFS from today long long range comes close..lol

I left the very last frame off as a NorthEast tease.


Attached Image

Actually it could be interesting friday and saturday, July 1 and 2 as a low
forms on the front off the SE coast. The GGEM shows it spinning up
east of Hatteras.
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east coast storm
post Jul 2 2011, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 24 2011, 07:20 PM) *
Well... the latest 18zGFS from today long long range comes close..lol

I left the very last frame off as a NorthEast tease.


Attached Image

As you know the 18Z GFS and GGEM does show a tropical low moving north from
Cuba and spinning up east of Fla and moving north off the NC coast in the
July 7-9 timeframe. This time it could be interesting.
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jdrenken
post Jul 3 2011, 09:03 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 2 2011, 10:19 PM) *
Is there a thread for discussing areas of interest near Africa?? I didnt see one. Maybe I missed it.

Strong wave coming off Africa right now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/030003.shtml?
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM
20N23W TO 10N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM AROUND 9N TO 17N.

[attachment=136318:WaveAfrica.jpg]


For future reference look here. I will move the said post and reply to said thread.


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east coast storm
post Jul 4 2011, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 24 2011, 07:20 PM) *
Well... the latest 18zGFS from today long long range comes close..lol

I left the very last frame off as a NorthEast tease.


Attached Image

As you know the GGEM (Canadian) model is showing a low spinning up east
of Florida, thursday and friday of this week as a front stalls along the EC,
and shows the low moving up off the NC coast next Saturday. It would
still be interesting to see what happens later this week.
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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 5 2011, 12:26 AM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jul 4 2011, 11:52 AM) *
As you know the GGEM (Canadian) model is showing a low spinning up east
of Florida, thursday and friday of this week as a front stalls along the EC,
and shows the low moving up off the NC coast next Saturday. It would
still be interesting to see what happens later this week.

It's probably just the regular GGEM tropical cyclone bias, as it often likes to develop tropical cyclones in its medium-long range which fail to verify. The NAM also shows the same disturbance currently near the Bahamas that the GGEM is developing apparently becoming a weak tropical cyclone near Florida with the DGEX taking it towards North Carolina, but both of these models also tend to exaggerate tropical cyclone formation. If the NAM/GGEM had any other support, I'd take this more seriously, but for now, they are the only models I saw showing this. While I'm not ruling out any tropical cyclone, I'd much rather wait to see other more reliable models show this more frequently before I start to take this potential more seriously.

HPC also agrees with their discussion from yesterday afternoon, calling the GGEM an extreme solution:

QUOTE
AS FOR OTHER DETAILS... THE PAST COUPLE ECMWF
RUNS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS WITH POSSIBLE
ENERGY SETTLING OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC LATER IN THE PERIOD...
WHILE THE CANADIAN IS AN EXTREME SOLN WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NEAR THE EAST COAST.

Source

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jul 5 2011, 12:36 AM


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