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#41
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 8,938 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 ![]() |
-------------------- Millersville University Meteorology Major
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#42
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
The 00z GGEM lost the tropical cyclone it developed out of the tropical wave. It now has simply an area of tropical moisture moving towards North Carolina and then takes it NE and well OTS from there. I'm not completely ruling out a tropical cyclone, but right now tropical development doesn't seem likely. Its environment doesn't seem to be very unfavorable, but this wave is under strong shear, ranging from 30 knots in its SW side to nearly 50 knots in its NE side.
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#43
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
The 00z GGEM lost the tropical cyclone it developed out of the tropical wave. It now has simply an area of tropical moisture moving towards North Carolina and then takes it NE and well OTS from there. I'm not completely ruling out a tropical cyclone, but right now tropical development doesn't seem likely. Its environment doesn't seem to be very unfavorable, but this wave is under strong shear, ranging from 30 knots in its SW side to nearly 50 knots in its NE side. I was looking at the visible loop this afternoon and it looks like a tropical low could possibly form east of the Bahamas. That low could move north east of Florida and the Carolinas along the stalled cold front off the EC thursday and friday. Henry had an interesting video discussion about that earlier. |
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#44
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
I was looking at the visible loop this afternoon and it looks like a tropical low could possibly form east of the Bahamas. That low could move north east of Florida and the Carolinas along the stalled cold front off the EC thursday and friday. Henry had an interesting video discussion about that earlier. There is an area of tropical moisture expected to move up near the East Coast during the late week, and eventually this should develop into an extra-tropical low by Sunday while moving towards Newfoundland/Greenland (which at this time, this appears to be the feature that helps to blocks the next surge of heat from easily spreading into the NE), but I'm not so sure if it becomes a tropical cyclone. By now, the NAM is the only model still showing this developing, and is constantly delaying its development. The NAM has a bias of developing tropical cyclones too frequently, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it back away from turning this into Bret as well. |
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#45
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 204 Joined: 6-March 09 Member No.: 17,856 ![]() |
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr
this pattern seems stuck. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. in close development isnt likely to happen with this pattern. might have a winter like low off the coast. |
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#46
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 11,225 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Grand Forks,ND Member No.: 16,148 ![]() |
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr this pattern seems stuck. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. in close development isnt likely to happen with this pattern. might have a winter like low off the coast. Ens. spreads see a break from the above pattern. -------------------- The opinions in my posts are of my own and do not represent those of the USAF.
Grand Forks AFB 2015-2016 Snowfall - 28.85" 52 days of trace |
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#47
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 204 Joined: 6-March 09 Member No.: 17,856 ![]() |
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#48
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 204 Joined: 6-March 09 Member No.: 17,856 ![]() |
http://tc.met.psu.edu/
if you go here you can see the 384 hr gfs. normally, i wouldnt even bother to mention it that far out but for weeks it has shown the pattern will flip to one different from 2010. today, its gone right back to the same thing we have been stuck in. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. thats not a pattern conducive to a close in development off the se coast or bahamas. at best in this pattern you might get a sub tropical mess to develop at some point. |
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#49
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
http://tc.met.psu.edu/ if you go here you can see the 384 hr gfs. normally, i wouldnt even bother to mention it that far out but for weeks it has shown the pattern will flip to one different from 2010. today, its gone right back to the same thing we have been stuck in. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. thats not a pattern conducive to a close in development off the se coast or bahamas. at best in this pattern you might get a sub tropical mess to develop at some point. This mornings GGEM shows something interesting. First it shows the non tropical low developing off the MA coast friday night and moving OTS saturday. Then it shows a tropical low moving NE out of the NE GOM saturday morning, up across N. Florida and moving slowly NE up across the SE coast this weekend and then spinning off the NC coast monday, and then moving slowly OTS tuesday. |
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#50
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
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#51
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,695 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 ![]() |
As you know, the 12Z GFS shows the canadian front moving off the EC wednesday and stalling east of the Carolinas late week and a low developing east of NC in the 7/16 timeframe. Could be interesting. That's why there will be Cloudy, Rainy and Very Cool Weather on the 16th. ![]() |
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#52
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
Anyone want to comment on this precipitable water loop? I'm not to knowledgeable on it but it looks like there's less water in the air now then there was last few days.
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#53
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 19,261 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 ![]() |
Let's all pay attention and focus on the southeast coast come next weekend.
Something should try to develop there, and invest activation should occur. If things go well, a close to the coast tropical storm shall arise. -------------------- |
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#54
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
Let's all pay attention and focus on the southeast coast come next weekend. Something should try to develop there, and invest activation should occur. If things go well, a close to the coast tropical storm shall arise. Take a look at the surface map from todays date in 2008 and the GFS forecast at 192hr. Look at the similarities of the High and the Low off the coast. Someone on Henry's fan page pointed out that the low last year turned into Cristobal and then Henry mentioned it moved up the coast. This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jul 12 2011, 07:02 PM |
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#55
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,071 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 ![]() |
Let's all pay attention and focus on the southeast coast come next weekend. Something should try to develop there, and invest activation should occur. If things go well, a close to the coast tropical storm shall arise. check the typhoon ma-on thread if ya get a chance... ![]() 12Z TC GEN @144hr ![]() This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 12 2011, 07:08 PM |
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#56
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
Take a look at the surface map from todays date in 2008 and the GFS forecast at 192hr. Look at the similarities of the High and the Low off the coast. Someone on Henry's fan page pointed out that the low last year turned into Cristobal and then Henry mentioned it moved up the coast. I looked at the 12Z GFS and GGEM today 7/14 and nothing to write home about. The potential SE coastal low that was advertised, is weak and moves NE up the coast in the July 18-20 timeframe and just fizzles out, as the high that gives us the heatwave next week tries to take over along the EC. |
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#57
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
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#58
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,304 Joined: 20-May 10 From: Melbourne Fla Member No.: 22,816 ![]() |
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#59
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
It has a nice curviture. As you know, that low could drift SW into Florida or drift NE offshore the Carolinas this coming week. As always it would be interesting to see what happens. No... Provide guidance or don't make statements like this. -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#60
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 11,225 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Grand Forks,ND Member No.: 16,148 ![]() |
No... Provide guidance or don't make statements like this. Depending which direction it drifts, shear could become more favorable. SST's are favorable ![]() Upper level features definitely get better the longer it lasts and the farther South it manages to drift. Worth watching IMO. -------------------- The opinions in my posts are of my own and do not represent those of the USAF.
Grand Forks AFB 2015-2016 Snowfall - 28.85" 52 days of trace |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 25th April 2018 - 07:27 AM |