Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs Options

[Superstorm93]

[NYCSuburbs]

The 00z GGEM lost the tropical cyclone it developed out of the tropical wave. It now has simply an area of tropical moisture moving towards North Carolina and then takes it NE and well OTS from there. I'm not completely ruling out a tropical cyclone, but right now tropical development doesn't seem likely. Its environment doesn't seem to be very unfavorable, but this wave is under strong shear, ranging from 30 knots in its SW side to nearly 50 knots in its NE side.

[east coast storm]

The 00z GGEM lost the tropical cyclone it developed out of the tropical wave. It now has simply an area of tropical moisture moving towards North Carolina and then takes it NE and well OTS from there. I'm not completely ruling out a tropical cyclone, but right now tropical development doesn't seem likely. Its environment doesn't seem to be very unfavorable, but this wave is under strong shear, ranging from 30 knots in its SW side to nearly 50 knots in its NE side.

I was looking at the visible loop this afternoon and it looks like a tropical
low could possibly form east of the Bahamas. That low could move north
east of Florida and the Carolinas along the stalled cold front off the EC
thursday and friday. Henry had an interesting video discussion about
that earlier.

[NYCSuburbs]

I was looking at the visible loop this afternoon and it looks like a tropical
low could possibly form east of the Bahamas. That low could move north
east of Florida and the Carolinas along the stalled cold front off the EC
thursday and friday. Henry had an interesting video discussion about
that earlier.

There is an area of tropical moisture expected to move up near the East Coast during the late week, and eventually this should develop into an extra-tropical low by Sunday while moving towards Newfoundland/Greenland (which at this time, this appears to be the feature that helps to blocks the next surge of heat from easily spreading into the NE), but I'm not so sure if it becomes a tropical cyclone. By now, the NAM is the only model still showing this developing, and is constantly delaying its development. The NAM has a bias of developing tropical cyclones too frequently, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it back away from turning this into Bret as well.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr

this pattern seems stuck. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. in close development isnt likely to happen with this pattern. might have a winter like low off the coast.

[hckyplayer8]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr

this pattern seems stuck. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. in close development isnt likely to happen with this pattern. might have a winter like low off the coast.

Ens. spreads see a break from the above pattern.

[rainstorm]

Ens. spreads see a break from the above pattern.

that would be a welcome relief. however, for a while now the long range has shown a pattern change but it has yet to materialize.

[rainstorm]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

if you go here you can see the 384 hr gfs. normally, i wouldnt even bother to mention it that far out but for weeks it has shown the pattern will flip to one different from 2010. today, its gone right back to the same thing we have been stuck in. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. thats not a pattern conducive to a close in development off the se coast or bahamas. at best in this pattern you might get a sub tropical mess to develop at some point.

[east coast storm]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

if you go here you can see the 384 hr gfs. normally, i wouldnt even bother to mention it that far out but for weeks it has shown the pattern will flip to one different from 2010. today, its gone right back to the same thing we have been stuck in. neg nao, east coast trough, and se canada low. thats not a pattern conducive to a close in development off the se coast or bahamas. at best in this pattern you might get a sub tropical mess to develop at some point.

This mornings GGEM shows something interesting. First it shows the non tropical
low developing off the MA coast friday night and moving OTS saturday. Then
it shows a tropical low moving NE out of the NE GOM saturday morning, up
across N. Florida and moving slowly NE up across the SE coast this weekend
and then spinning off the NC coast monday, and then moving slowly OTS
tuesday.

[east coast storm]

Ens. spreads see a break from the above pattern.

As you know, the 12Z GFS shows the canadian front moving off the EC wednesday and
stalling east of the Carolinas late week and a low developing east of NC in the
7/16 timeframe. Could be interesting.

[Niyologist]

As you know, the 12Z GFS shows the canadian front moving off the EC wednesday and
stalling east of the Carolinas late week and a low developing east of NC in the
7/16 timeframe. Could be interesting.

That's why there will be Cloudy, Rainy and Very Cool Weather on the 16th.

[NorEaster07]

Anyone want to comment on this precipitable water loop? I'm not to knowledgeable on it but it looks like there's less water in the air now then there was last few days.

[Phased Vort]

Let's all pay attention and focus on the southeast coast come next weekend.

Something should try to develop there, and invest activation should occur.

If things go well, a close to the coast tropical storm shall arise.

[NorEaster07]

Let's all pay attention and focus on the southeast coast come next weekend.

Something should try to develop there, and invest activation should occur.

If things go well, a close to the coast tropical storm shall arise.

Take a look at the surface map from todays date in 2008 and the GFS forecast at 192hr. Look at the similarities of the High and the Low off the coast. Someone on Henry's fan page pointed out that the low last year turned into Cristobal and then Henry mentioned it moved up the coast.




This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jul 12 2011, 07:02 PM

[MAC292OH10]

Let's all pay attention and focus on the southeast coast come next weekend.

Something should try to develop there, and invest activation should occur.

If things go well, a close to the coast tropical storm shall arise.

check the typhoon ma-on thread if ya get a chance...

12Z TC GEN @144hr


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jul 12 2011, 07:08 PM

[east coast storm]

Take a look at the surface map from todays date in 2008 and the GFS forecast at 192hr. Look at the similarities of the High and the Low off the coast. Someone on Henry's fan page pointed out that the low last year turned into Cristobal and then Henry mentioned it moved up the coast.

I looked at the 12Z GFS and GGEM today 7/14 and nothing to write home about.
The potential SE coastal low that was advertised, is weak and moves NE up the
coast in the July 18-20 timeframe and just fizzles out, as the high that gives
us the heatwave next week tries to take over along the EC.

[NorEaster07]

Anyone notice the clouds off southEast coast this morning?

[east coast storm]

Anyone notice the clouds off southEast coast this morning?

It has a nice curviture. As you know, that low could drift SW into Florida or
drift NE offshore the Carolinas this coming week. As always it would be
interesting to see what happens.

[jdrenken]

It has a nice curviture. As you know, that low could drift SW into Florida or
drift NE offshore the Carolinas this coming week. As always it would be
interesting to see what happens.

No...


Provide guidance or don't make statements like this.

[hckyplayer8]

No...
Provide guidance or don't make statements like this.

Depending which direction it drifts, shear could become more favorable.



SST's are favorable



Upper level features definitely get better the longer it lasts and the farther South it manages to drift. Worth watching IMO.