April 29 - May 3rd Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS Options

[SEMIweather]

Each run of the GFS keeps bringing the severe weather threat closer to Oklahoma on Saturday...why not.

[Chicago Storm]

Marginal threat.

[SEMIweather]

Marginal threat.

I'm aware...but this is pretty much the only thing going on in the near future after the current system.

[Southern Indiana]

Marginal threat.

Doesnt mean it should be disqualified from discussion. I dislike some of the elitist attitude this place has.

[andersonIN]

Doesnt mean it should be disqualified from discussion. I dislike some of the elitist attitude this place has.

well there is a slight risk for parts of south east OK and parts of north east texas so it does qualify for discussion. btw i agree with some of these attitudes! but thats what it is!

[Chicago Storm]

Doesnt mean it should be disqualified from discussion. I dislike some of the elitist attitude this place has.

All I said was "Marginal threat", which it is.

Never did I say it shouldn't be discussed.

Nice try though.

[The Snowman]

Everyone keep in mind the jet stream will be shifting north in coming weeks, bringing April 27 type systems up here.

[melissa from ill...]

I thought there were moderators on these forums that monitored for people being "catty" with their posts. These forums are for civil discussion, not tongue lashing remarks. It's very distracting when people start being impolite to one another. I think the mods need to send out a friendly reminder about forum activity.

[Southern Indiana]

Everyone keep in mind the jet stream will be shifting north in coming weeks, bringing April 27 type systems up here.

While I think the threat of severe weather will certainly be greater for us than it has been, I am not expecting a once in a lifetime event to occur two weeks apart.

[wsushox1]

Everyone keep in mind the jet stream will be shifting north in coming weeks, bringing April 27 type systems up here.

It will also, as typical, not be as amplitudal as it is now.

However this is not a typical year.

This post has been edited by wsushox1: Apr 28 2011, 08:21 PM

[Gilbertfly]

While I think the threat of severe weather will certainly be greater for us than it has been, I am not expecting a once in a lifetime event to occur two weeks apart.

probably just referencing a generality that was brought up by LOT in this article today

[TJ Schulte]

Everyone keep in mind the jet stream will be shifting north in coming weeks, bringing April 27 type systems up here.

Please stop with these kind of remarks. I mean really I'm not expecting NW Ohio to soon be devastated in a months time and with all of the relative newbies and guests on here things like this can scare the heck out of em

This post has been edited by TJ Schulte: Apr 28 2011, 08:18 PM

[Southern Indiana]

Please stop with these kind of remarks. I mean really I'm not expecting NW Ohio to soon be devastated in a months time and with all of the relative newbies and guests on here things like this can scare the heck out of em

Thats what I am saying. Everyone should be aware that the threat is very real, and its important with the fresh memory to get the word out to people in your area not to be complacent.

But to say we are going to experience in a couple weeks a weather event that produced a tornado that could only be compare to one from 86 years ago and a massive outbreak that can only be compared to one that occurred 37 years ago is a reach of extreme proportions.

Lets also keep in mind that with the exception of 2008 (which is only 1 year by the way out of the many years we have been collecting storm data) May and June do not experience the same increase in outbreak compared to the average may or june.

[andersonIN]

Please stop with these kind of remarks. I mean really I'm not expecting NW Ohio to soon be devastated in a months time and with all of the relative newbies and guests on here things like this can scare the heck out of em

i tend to agree. i say we are looking at the typical storms we normally have(wind damage), with a few weak tornadoes, and i deffinitely dont expect to see anything like we just seen for a few more years (10+) hopefully! anything is possible tho!

[HassayWx2306]

Please stop with these kind of remarks. I mean really I'm not expecting NW Ohio to soon be devastated in a months time and with all of the relative newbies and guests on here things like this can scare the heck out of em

100% agreed! With all this new people around even though I've only been around a year you can't make remarks about another place getting devastated. Let me say this yesterday was simple no words speak for what happened, but us people who know the weather, and forecasts that we're not involved here up north need to keep on moving and keep our knowledge on here for the fact of the new people. so we move on to this. the goal is to watch it, and if severe weather is possible keep everyone safe

This post has been edited by HassayWx2306: Apr 29 2011, 12:21 AM

[jdrenken]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...NERN
TX...SERN OK...SERN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN
UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY BY
00Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE FLOW ALOFT TO
OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ONE LOW WILL BE OVER
NRN MN BY 00Z...WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE
MS RIVER AND THEN SWWD INTO SRN OK/NWRN TX. SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID RETURN NWD OF MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS TX...LA...AR AND ERN OK.

...NERN TX/SERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO...
THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A WARM
NOSE NEAR 700 MB...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST S OF THE FRONT
AS THE MOISTURE RETURNS AND HEATING OCCURS. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
PERSISTENT LIFTING NEAR THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NERN TX/SERN OK
INTO AR AND SRN MO...MOST LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING THAT STORM STRUCTURE COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT
LINEAR...OR AT LEAST WITH MERGED STORMS LEADING TO TRAINING ECHOS.
THIS IN TURN SHOULD YIELD MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH SOME
HAIL THREAT AS WELL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ACQUIRE
ROTATION BEFORE MERGING. BUT...POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOWEST 3KM...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK...WILL HELP MITIGATE THE TORNADO
THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 04/29/2011

[Southern Indiana]

100% agreed! With all this new people around even though I've only been around a year you can't make remarks about another place getting devastated. Let me say this yesterday was simple no words speak for what happened, but us people who know the weather, and forecasts that we're not involved here up north need to keep on moving and keep our knowledge on here for the fact of the new people. so we move on to this. the goal is to watch it, and if severe weather is possible keep everyone safe

Ive only been on this forum for a week, and That dudes had a plethora of questionable posts.

Lets just understand that we arent out of the severe weather woods yet, and take it one storm at a time (and predict based on the current data infront of us... not wishcasting)

[Southern Indiana]

[SEMIweather]

Everyone just needs to settle down...especially with calling out other members & comparing systems to April 27th for no reason at all. This is a quiet thread so I'm not going to go back and retroactively warn people, but please calm down.

[SADBadger]

Everyone just needs to settle down...especially with calling out other members & comparing systems to April 27th for no reason at all. This is a quiet thread so I'm not going to go back and retroactively warn people, but please calm down.

I'm calling you out. Who gave you the right to be the voice of reason?

(actually, thank you, from someone who has been caught outside in severe weather with no shelter several times and has a very healthy respect for the weather gods...)