Super Typhoon Songda, Western Pacific Options

[MAC292OH10]

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 200758Z
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, ENHANCED
OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, FUELED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING STR WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY.
C. TS 04W WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72. A SECONDARY STR
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, 04W
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING 90 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

110kt gusts @D4...







00Z ECMWF shows a glancing blow to the northern Philipines & Taiwan





This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 26 2011, 02:14 PM

[MAC292OH10]

Songda looks to be blossoming into a massive Typhoon...





MSLP

[MAC292OH10]

and bang...from a bird fart to a 140kt Super Typhoon(nearly 920mb estimated)...thankfully NO landmasses should take a direct hit...

WDPN31 PGTW 261200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (260936Z CORIOLIS AND 261157Z
SSMIS) DEPICT A 16 NM CONCENTRIC EYE-WALL WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON
THE 26/1132Z PGTW EYE FIX AND THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF
140 KNOTS. FUELED BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5-10 KNOTS), AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STY 04W HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY, INDICATING
THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY SONGDA IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AND MAINTAIN SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE. STY 04W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFERS SLIGHTLY IN
TRACK SPEED. EGRR AND JGSM REMAIN THE SLOWER MODELS, WHILE NOGAPS
AND GFDN ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE JTWC FORECAST IN THE EARLY TAUS
REMAINS SLIGHTLY INSIDE AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 04W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE LOW AFTER TAU 72, BUT OVER THE PAST 12-
24 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT POLEWARD TREND IN MODEL
TRACKERS, WITH NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INLAND JUST
SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN. BASED ON THIS TREND, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, BUT
REMAINS INSIDE AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE
FORECASTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN, AND KNOWN MODEL ERROR
IN A RE-CURVE TYPE SCENARIO, A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN

[wsushox1]

Excellent images Mac!! typhoons outside of the atlantic have always interested me.

[MAC292OH10]

Excellent images Mac!! typhoons outside of the atlantic have always interested me.

thx...i have a ton of links, but im trying to get my brain refreshed on alot of the terminology and tracking tricks i forgotten, focusing so hard on work it feels like my brain has been erased the last 8mos...

Songda struggled for a little while and then just exploded once the upper level environment got conducive for development...Songda is in the phases of weakening now, cooler waters and encountering shear from the trough over SE Asia, the storm will go extra-tropical as it phases with the trough near southern japan...typically these systems have some sort of down stream effect on our WX pattern but its too soon to tell what that may be...Songda will end up putting a pretty good dent in WPAC ACE stats...probably end up around 22-25 final ACE...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 27 2011, 04:27 PM

[MAC292OH10]

TRMM imagery and "fly-by"...old data btw









This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: May 28 2011, 09:05 PM