June 24 - ? West (CA) Troughs/June Gloom, Forecasts and OBS Options

[alxz310]

As we enter late may, the dry season is starting to settle in along with the typical night through morning low clouds regime. A trough will skirt through the west tomorrow, followed by a warm up towards Friday as a ridge off the coast of western mexico pushes north. The long range points to possible continued troughs or a cutoff low moving through the west coast, resulting in continuing onshore flow and a deeper marine layer. No major heatwaves in sight for the moment.

This post has been edited by alxz310: Jun 23 2011, 05:32 PM

[Jet Developer]

Starting to sound familiar to last year. First major heat wave probably not till mid-July and hottest day of 2011 may not be until late September or October. Did get a few hours of sunshine today, but the overcast was back by 5:30.

[Beck]

Starting to sound familiar to last year. First major heat wave probably not till mid-July and hottest day of 2011 may not be until late September or October. Did get a few hours of sunshine today, but the overcast was back by 5:30.

I doubt it'll be in October, that's nearly impossible even for us. Though San Diego did reach 100F on 11/01 last year

[Jet Developer]

It was a nice reverse clearing day today. Other than that, not much to talk about.

[alxz310]

The marine layer barely affected us yesterday and today, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. It has been much cooler than normal in the mornings (51f today) and generally cooler than average. The GFS and ECMWF show another trough approaching the area this weekend after a slight warm up... continued onshore flow will really prevent it from getting too warm in areas closer to the coast. Anyone have any thoughts on the summer? For now, there are no significant heatwaves in sight, with numerous troughs affecting the west coast, preventing any ridge from fully settling in.

This post has been edited by alxz310: May 25 2011, 01:11 AM

[alxz310]

Interesting trend developing in the GFS... the past couple of runs show a few troughs moving through followed by a low cutting off west of California towards the end of next week. If that continues and moves any closer we could be looking at some early june precipitation!

[Jet Developer]

The marine layer barely affected us yesterday and today, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. It has been much cooler than normal in the mornings (51f today) and generally cooler than average. The GFS and ECMWF show another trough approaching the area this weekend after a slight warm up... continued onshore flow will really prevent it from getting too warm in areas closer to the coast. Anyone have any thoughts on the summer? For now, there are no significant heatwaves in sight, with numerous troughs affecting the west coast, preventing any ridge from fully settling in.

My guess is for another cool summer, as it is looking a lot like last spring. However, things could change unexpectedly.

[Artisane]

Tornados in Northern California yesterday.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/25/torn...k-yard-tonight/

[wxrat01]

Shaping up to be an interesting few days across SoCal. There should be some pretty gusty northwest to north winds across the area today through Saturday (at the least). Gusts to 50 to 55 MPH are pretty likely in the usual northerly wind spots (I-5 corridor and Santa Ynez range). With the winds...I would not be surprised to see quite a few small brush fires through the weekend.

Further out...it could be very interesting either way late next week. The 00Z GFS still developing a rather significant upper low off the West Coast late next week which could bring a shot of some precip. However the 00z ECMWF is 180 degrees opposite with its solution. The ECMWF builds a very strong upper ridge over the Southwest with some offshore flow. if this pattern would prevail...it would be very...very warm late next week.

Personally...I am hoping for the warm ECMWF solution as I am tired of the cool, drizzly weather. Of course...I am truly likely in the minority . Can't wait to see how it plays out.

[Jet Developer]

Personally...I am hoping for the warm ECMWF solution as I am tired of the cool, drizzly weather. Of course...I am truly likely in the minority . Can't wait to see how it plays out.

I am hoping for some warm and sunny weather as well and hopefully this summer will be warmer than last.

[alxz310]

Tornados in Northern California yesterday.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/25/torn...k-yard-tonight/

Wow, I read about some severe thunderstorms up there yesterday but didn't hear about these tornadoes.

Shaping up to be an interesting few days across SoCal. There should be some pretty gusty northwest to north winds across the area today through Saturday (at the least). Gusts to 50 to 55 MPH are pretty likely in the usual northerly wind spots (I-5 corridor and Santa Ynez range). With the winds...I would not be surprised to see quite a few small brush fires through the weekend.

Further out...it could be very interesting either way late next week. The 00Z GFS still developing a rather significant upper low off the West Coast late next week which could bring a shot of some precip. However the 00z ECMWF is 180 degrees opposite with its solution. The ECMWF builds a very strong upper ridge over the Southwest with some offshore flow. if this pattern would prevail...it would be very...very warm late next week.

Personally...I am hoping for the warm ECMWF solution as I am tired of the cool, drizzly weather. Of course...I am truly likely in the minority . Can't wait to see how it plays out.

I'm on the other boat, I like the cool, drizzly weather . I actually welcome so warmth and sun from time to time as well. What's really perfect imo is variation in the weather; some cool days, some warm/hot days and some rain.

[Beck]

It's not the daytime summer heat that bothers me - it's those nasty, stuffy, super-warm summer nights....

[alxz310]

It's not the daytime summer heat that bothers me - it's those nasty, stuffy, super-warm summer nights....

Yup, and the problem with that is, even if it does cool off in the very late night hours (3-6am), it's not enough to cool down the house and it warms up quickly.

On to the weather, today was about 68F/54F (+4F/-4F from average) and mostly sunny, so not much going on really. Some strong winds should kick up tomorrow and Sunday near the coasts and the antelope valley/mountains, but no precipitation is expected from the trough moving through over the weekend, plus the models have trended more NE with it. After that, a low moves down off the NorCal coast.

[Jet Developer]

They say it could be up to 35 degrees below average inland on Sunday. If that were to happen, Riverside would have a high of 47 and Palm Springs would have a high of 63. Somehow, I'm not seeing that.

[alxz310]

They say it could be up to 35 degrees below average inland on Sunday. If that were to happen, Riverside would have a high of 47 and Palm Springs would have a high of 63. Somehow, I'm not seeing that.

Lol San Diego NWS? The LA/Oxnard NWS only says that the mountains and antelope valley will be 15-25F cooler than Saturday. Actually, though, Palm Spring's average for Sunday would be 98F (per the weather channel) and they are forecast to be at 73F, so that's a good -25F departure). The only city I see that's close to that is Big Bear.. (avg 69F, high of 42F on Sun)... still think they're dramatizing a bit.

[Artisane]

Yeah, we're looking to be around low 60s for a high. We should be mid to upper 80s by now. It was a lovely day for our garage sale, but it doesn't look that nice for tomorrow. We've still got a lot of stuff to sell.

[Jet Developer]

Very strange marine layer day today. This morning around sunrise it was reaching just a few miles inland. Then it ever so slowly (but not completely) burned off over most of Orange County but began spreading into the Inland Empire and the L.A. mountain slopes. By late afternoon, the marine layer was deep enough to fog up the Mt. Wilson Observatory, but it was still mostly sunny over Orange County with clouds along the foothills and much of the Inland Empire.

[alxz310]

The medium/long range is looking quite interesting as a low develops off the California coast. A chance of some rain perhaps? At the very least well see continued cool weather, and if ocean temps anamolies continue to e negative it might stay cool for a while near the coast

[Beck]

Verrry windy today.

[idecline]

Dry spell...? We had rain again on Saturday afternoon..several heavier cells hit me as I drove back from Monterey to Santa Cruz about 5:30 pm.....The weather has been very unusual with the lows pushing much further South than normal for May...June is almost here and we have yet to have a heatwave or even a spate of windy 'Spring' days. I fear that we will have a cool, foggy summer ( the usual) and have to wait until September for "Offshore Flo(w)" that brings the heat to the beaches.