 Invest 94L, Tropical Fomation Development Level: Low - 0% |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Current Tropical Season Weather  |
  Jun 3 2011, 01:39 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 12,766 Joined: 29-November 08 From: Mt. Pleasant, MI Member No.: 16,278  |
QUOTE BEGIN
NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106031758 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END AL, 94, 2011060318, , BEST, 0, 160N, 780W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, -------------------- University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor DTW Stats: 2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19 Max Temp: 100F (7/21) |
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Jun 3 2011, 01:43 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Time to bring out the USNRL TC page.
 Remember to click on the first link and accept the government certificate to view the picture below if it doesn't show up. 
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Jun 3 2011, 01:47 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,766 Joined: 29-November 08 From: Mt. Pleasant, MI Member No.: 16,278 |
You've read my mind. I was rushing through my old bookmarks to find that. Thanks for the link.
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jun 3 2011, 02:43 PM)  Time to bring out the USNRL TC page.
This post has been edited by kab2791: Jun 3 2011, 01:48 PM -------------------- University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor DTW Stats: 2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19 Max Temp: 100F (7/21) |
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Jun 3 2011, 02:08 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,766 Joined: 29-November 08 From: Mt. Pleasant, MI Member No.: 16,278 |
-------------------- University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor DTW Stats: 2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19 Max Temp: 100F (7/21) |
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Jun 3 2011, 02:13 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(kab2791 @ Jun 3 2011, 01:47 PM) You've read my mind. I was rushing through my old bookmarks to find that. Thanks for the link. My hurricane folder isn't as filled as the other ones...so easier to find. Plus, I have two subfolders in there...1. USN 2. FSU.
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Jun 3 2011, 02:21 PM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
there it is...gotta run to pay some bills..lol...bbl...
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Jun 3 2011, 05:17 PM
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#7
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,830 Joined: 4-October 09 From: Wichita, Kansas Member No.: 19,356 |
Not Looking too bad at all. It doesn't appear cirrus is being blown downstream of the convection, so one could assume that there is little shear in/around the system
This post has been edited by wsushox1: Jun 3 2011, 05:18 PM -------------------- Synoptics>>>>>
University of Kansas, Atmospheric Science |
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Jun 3 2011, 06:07 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,766 Joined: 29-November 08 From: Mt. Pleasant, MI Member No.: 16,278 |
QUOTE(wsushox1 @ Jun 3 2011, 06:17 PM) Not Looking too bad at all. It doesn't appear cirrus is being blown downstream of the convection, so one could assume that there is little shear in/around the system Correct, shear to the north providing some UL divergence. Shear Analysis: (Note the anticyclonic flow overhead)
Divergence:
Here's a look at LL convergence:
Overall, shear/divergence is favorable for some development, but as NHC has noted, dry air is allowing for only slow development of this very broad area of low pressure. This post has been edited by kab2791: Jun 3 2011, 06:12 PM -------------------- University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor DTW Stats: 2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19 Max Temp: 100F (7/21) |
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Jun 3 2011, 06:43 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,766 Joined: 29-November 08 From: Mt. Pleasant, MI Member No.: 16,278 |
Mandarin:
 QUOTE 1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. -------------------- University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor DTW Stats: 2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19 Max Temp: 100F (7/21) |
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Jun 3 2011, 08:45 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
overall conditions appear slightly more favorable then forecast models would lead to believe, hence the NHC 30%...interesting to see what happens if it does in fact meander for a while...not good for hispanola and PR flooding risks...
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 3 2011, 08:48 PM |
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Jun 3 2011, 08:57 PM
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#11
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 17,815 Joined: 13-January 08 From: White Plains, NY Member No.: 12,468 |
There it is!
So now, will this one spin up on the NE shores of Hispaniola, or fizzle out and rebuild itself farther to the NW into the Caribbean closer to western Cuba? Not sure yet. Should be fun watching this during the weekend. -------------------- |
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Jun 3 2011, 09:29 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
00Z early
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Jun 3 2011, 09:35 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
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Jun 3 2011, 09:50 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jun 3 2011, 10:35 PM) another meandering storm...although it was a November storm, pretty similar set-up... This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 3 2011, 09:53 PM |
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Jun 4 2011, 10:07 AM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 529 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Windsor Locks Ct. Member No.: 12,104 |
Probably stationary through the weekend. Impressive blowup this morning. Models certainly all over the place. Gotta watch it.
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Jun 4 2011, 10:33 AM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,766 Joined: 29-November 08 From: Mt. Pleasant, MI Member No.: 16,278 |
Recon canceled for Today, scheduled for tomorrow/monday
QUOTE 000 NOUS42 KNHC 041515 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 05/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 05/1430Z D. 17.0N 78.0W E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 06/0600Z B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE C. 06/0145Z D. 17.0N 78.0W E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1300Z. -------------------- University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor DTW Stats: 2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19 Max Temp: 100F (7/21) |
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Jun 4 2011, 02:15 PM
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#17
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,098 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Chicken Capital,PA Member No.: 16,148 |
Not so much agreement between the globals. Several solutions from a slow NE drift towards the ULL to duel splits with one drifting NE and the other NW.
-------------------- Troll Mode engaged due to the explosion of the Philadelphia Flyers by their worthless management.
"The solar system is so humongous big... like net to shooters that face me in shootout." "We lose shootout and I get paid big money to do nothing but don't worry be happy" ~Ilya Bryzgalov |
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Jun 4 2011, 02:18 PM
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#18
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 214 Joined: 6-September 09 From: Atlanta Member No.: 19,147 |
Hey is it just me or are the thunderstorms beginning to wrap around the center?
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Jun 4 2011, 02:55 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 587 Joined: 9-January 09 From: (803) Member No.: 16,839 |
QUOTE(alfoman @ Jun 4 2011, 02:18 PM) Hey is it just me or are the thunderstorms beginning to wrap around the center? I don't think so. If you're referring to the spin around ~17N 74W I think that's a mid level low, looks like the surface low is around 17N 78W. -------------------- "If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." - U.S. President James Madison "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box." -Italian Proverb |
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Jun 4 2011, 04:04 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,070 Joined: 27-January 08 From: Buckeye Lake ,OH Member No.: 13,231 |
IR/Shear/SAL
--- 18Z early
This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 4 2011, 04:14 PM |
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