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> Invest 94L, Tropical Fomation Development Level: Low - 0%
kab2791
post Jun 3 2011, 01:39 PM
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QUOTE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106031758
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

AL, 94, 2011060318, , BEST, 0, 160N, 780W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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jdrenken
post Jun 3 2011, 01:43 PM
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Time to bring out the USNRL TC page. wink.gif

Remember to click on the first link and accept the government certificate to view the picture below if it doesn't show up.


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kab2791
post Jun 3 2011, 01:47 PM
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You've read my mind. I was rushing through my old bookmarks to find that. Thanks for the link.
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jun 3 2011, 02:43 PM) *
Time to bring out the USNRL TC page. wink.gif


This post has been edited by kab2791: Jun 3 2011, 01:48 PM


--------------------
University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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kab2791
post Jun 3 2011, 02:08 PM
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Attached Image


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University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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jdrenken
post Jun 3 2011, 02:13 PM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Jun 3 2011, 01:47 PM) *
You've read my mind. I was rushing through my old bookmarks to find that. Thanks for the link.


My hurricane folder isn't as filled as the other ones...so easier to find. Plus, I have two subfolders in there...1. USN 2. FSU. wink.gif


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It's a work in progress!

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MAC292OH10
post Jun 3 2011, 02:21 PM
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there it is...gotta run to pay some bills..lol...bbl...
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wsushox1
post Jun 3 2011, 05:17 PM
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Not Looking too bad at all. It doesn't appear cirrus is being blown downstream of the convection, so one could assume that there is little shear in/around the system

This post has been edited by wsushox1: Jun 3 2011, 05:18 PM


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kab2791
post Jun 3 2011, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(wsushox1 @ Jun 3 2011, 06:17 PM) *
Not Looking too bad at all. It doesn't appear cirrus is being blown downstream of the convection, so one could assume that there is little shear in/around the system


Correct, shear to the north providing some UL divergence.

Shear Analysis: (Note the anticyclonic flow overhead)
Attached Image


Divergence:
Attached Image


Here's a look at LL convergence:
Attached Image



Overall, shear/divergence is favorable for some development, but as NHC has noted, dry air is allowing for only slow development of this very broad area of low pressure.

This post has been edited by kab2791: Jun 3 2011, 06:12 PM


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University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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kab2791
post Jun 3 2011, 06:43 PM
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Mandarin:
Attached Image

QUOTE
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA.




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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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MAC292OH10
post Jun 3 2011, 08:45 PM
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overall conditions appear slightly more favorable then forecast models would lead to believe, hence the NHC 30%...interesting to see what happens if it does in fact meander for a while...not good for hispanola and PR flooding risks...

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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 3 2011, 08:48 PM
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Phased Vort
post Jun 3 2011, 08:57 PM
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There it is!


So now, will this one spin up on the NE shores of Hispaniola, or fizzle out and rebuild itself farther to the NW into the Caribbean closer to western Cuba?


Not sure yet.


Should be fun watching this during the weekend.


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MAC292OH10
post Jun 3 2011, 09:29 PM
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00Z early

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jdrenken
post Jun 3 2011, 09:35 PM
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To say that the 94L CLIQR output likes Marco would be an understatement.

11/16 is the score.


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MAC292OH10
post Jun 3 2011, 09:50 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jun 3 2011, 10:35 PM) *
To say that the 94L CLIQR output likes Marco would be an understatement.

11/16 is the score.


another meandering storm...although it was a November storm, pretty similar set-up...

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 3 2011, 09:53 PM
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hurricanehunter
post Jun 4 2011, 10:07 AM
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Probably stationary through the weekend. Impressive blowup this morning. Models certainly all over the place. Gotta watch it.
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kab2791
post Jun 4 2011, 10:33 AM
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Recon canceled for Today, scheduled for tomorrow/monday
QUOTE
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.



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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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hckyplayer8
post Jun 4 2011, 02:15 PM
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Not so much agreement between the globals. Several solutions from a slow NE drift towards the ULL to duel splits with one drifting NE and the other NW. laugh.gif


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alfoman
post Jun 4 2011, 02:18 PM
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Hey is it just me or are the thunderstorms beginning to wrap around the center?

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tatertim
post Jun 4 2011, 02:55 PM
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QUOTE(alfoman @ Jun 4 2011, 02:18 PM) *
Hey is it just me or are the thunderstorms beginning to wrap around the center?



I don't think so. If you're referring to the spin around ~17N 74W I think that's a mid level low, looks like the surface low is around 17N 78W.


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MAC292OH10
post Jun 4 2011, 04:04 PM
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IR/Shear/SAL
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---

18Z early

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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 4 2011, 04:14 PM
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