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> June 6-10 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1, 2, 3 Slight Risk
MDH
post Jun 5 2011, 12:34 AM
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Well, since it's obvious something is going to happen on both of these days I thought I might as well start the thread up.


Some amazing looking hodographs in extreme southeastern Montana on June the 7th. The main problem appears to be a very strong cap with the mid-level temperatures approaching 15c within the warm front! Any storm that does develop, of course, would be very well organized with supportive 50kts above.

As the system moves east, another similar situation will unfold, this time in northern SD.

Looking forward to tomorrow night's model run (will update title to include 8th in MN as it becomes more predictable).

This post has been edited by jdrenken: Jun 5 2011, 01:13 PM
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snowlover2
post Jun 5 2011, 01:07 AM
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Need to fix the title so it reads "June 6-7 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather" and subtitle "SPC Risk Level: Day 2 Slight Risk Forecasts & OBS" just so it follows the guidelines.


--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

Biggest Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 5 2011, 01:16 AM
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New day 2
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MT...ND...NWRN SD...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER-AIR FEATURES INFLUENCING FLOW ALOFT AND SVR POTENTIAL
THIS PERIOD WILL BE
1. STG ANTICYCLONE OVER SRN PLAINS...WITH RIDGING NWWD OVER NRN
ROCKIES THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS LATE IN PERIOD...AND
2. PRONOUNCED CYCLONE...CENTER OF WHICH WAS EVIDENT IN 05/05Z
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY WOBBLING ERRATICALLY NEAR A POINT 225 WSW
SFO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EWD OVER DAKOTAS LATE IN PERIOD AS PAC LOW
EJECTS NEWD FROM CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TOWARD NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE..SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER LS REGION SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC SHORTLY BEFORE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH
TRAILING LOBE POSSIBLE OVER CAROLINAS AROUND 6/18Z.

AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY AND CONVECTIVELY MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE --
INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD ACROSS NRN KS -- IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE/REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY BY
6/12Z...INTERSECTING SEPARATE COLD FRONT OVER MN. BY THAT
TIME...WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED ALONG THAT SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND...WHILE WRN LIMB OF FRONT BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN SD AND SERN/S-CENTRAL MT. BY 7/00Z...APCHG
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL ENGENDER STG LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SRN MT
COLLOCATED WITH LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO SRN MN AND CENTRAL/NRN WI. SFC CYCLONE
SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER SERN MT OVERNIGHT...WHILE FRONTAL ZONE
STRENGTHENS...AS WILL LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME TO ITS N.

...NRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
ROCKIES DURING DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS ADJOINING
PLAINS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE
ISOLATED DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE FARTHER E ACROSS
DAKOTAS ALONG AND N OF FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND
MOVING NEWD TOWARD CANADIAN BORDER.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO ORGANIZED
SVR THREAT. MEANWHILE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALSO WILL
STRENGTHEN...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM
6/00Z AT LEAST THROUGH 6/09Z AS REGIME LIFTS NWD. SFC-BASED TSTMS
OVER MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR...AND DEEPER SUPERCELLS MAY
FORM IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL MT.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SPREAD INTO PORTIONS ND WILL BRING THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...WIND POTENTIAL BEING GREATEST NEAR
SFC FRONT.

PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELY/ESELY FLOW N OF FRONT WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS AND WITHIN NARROW
CORRIDOR N OF FRONT INTO SRN/CENTRAL MT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS IN PRE-STORM
REGIME...GIVEN EXPECTED MASS RESPONSE TO APCHG WAVE ALOFT.
THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON...SFC DIABATIC HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR
MASS CONSIDERABLY BOTH IN HIGHER TERRAIN S OF FRONT AND WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF...IN SUPPORT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AFTER
DARK...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS/COMPLEXES OF TSTMS MAY BE AIDED BY RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING AND MOISTENING SELY LLJ...WHICH MAY REACH 40-50 KT FROM
NWRN SD ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN MT.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT EXISTS OVER THIS REGION NEAR ERN LIMB OF
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. MOISTURE...BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MRGL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL LIFT
AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION/COVERAGE ARE IN QUESTION. AREA
WILL BE UNDER WNWLY FLOW FOR MOST OF DAY...WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
PSBL AS RIDGE APCHS. CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF HIGH PW/MIXING RATIO
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF FRONT...COMBINING WITH SFC DIABATIC
HEATING TO YIELD MLCAPE POTENTIALLY IN 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH WLY COMPONENT WILL LIMIT BOTH BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...ALTHOUGH SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT
AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT FROM FCST
SOUNDINGS


--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

Biggest Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 5 2011, 03:40 AM
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Wrong thread IB. This is still part of the May 31 - June 5 thread.


--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

Biggest Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 5 2011, 03:42 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 5 2011, 03:40 AM) *
Wrong thread IB. This is still part of the May 31 - June 5 thread.


Blah mad.gif

Thanks for the heads up tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Illinois blizzard: Jun 5 2011, 03:44 AM


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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snowlover2
post Jun 5 2011, 12:46 PM
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Updated day 2
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MT...NRN
WY...SW ND AND NW SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND SRN LOWER MI...

....MT/WRN-SRN ND/NW ND...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM SD EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS SRN AND WRN MT WHERE MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING CAP AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NRN SIDE OF A
DEEPENING SFC LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN MT
AT 00Z TUESDAY SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT.
THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM
SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL. THE
MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER WHERE A 30 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 250 TO 450 M2/S2 SUGGESTING TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS WRN ND
AND NW SD...THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING AND
HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/LOWER MI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED IN THE NCNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EXTENDING
EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND SCNTRL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING IN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z TUESDAY FROM SRN MN TO SRN WI SHOW MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500 J/KG AND 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTING SUPERCELL OR BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...A POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 850 MB
FLOW OF 25 KT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY
WITH PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS.



--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

Biggest Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
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snowlover2
post Jun 6 2011, 01:13 AM
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Joined: 30-December 08
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New day 1
Attached Image


Tornado
Attached Image


Hail
Attached Image


Wind
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT...FAR NRN
WY...NWRN SD...AND WRN ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WI INTO UPPER
AND LOWER MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN EWD SHIFT OF THE STRONG
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS RIDGE TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES TO SRN
QUEBEC...BETWEEN THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND A DEEP VORTEX CENTERED
INVOF HUDSON BAY.

...MT/WRN DAKOTAS TO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SSEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TODAY...THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN SD INTO SRN MT. HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
NEWD TOWARD MT TODAY...WITH GREATEST FALLS EXPECTED AFTER
07/00Z...WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING LEE LOW MOVING NWD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACKING NWD THROUGH ERN MT
TONIGHT. ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WWD INTO MT
BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ALONG AND N OF THE W-E ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER FORCING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST OF MT INTO PARTS OF WRN ND/NWRN SD. THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND
VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/SERN MT AS A ESELY LLJ
STRENGTHENS INTO THE EVENING.

FARTHER W/SW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO NRN GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING.
FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE CA CLOSED LOW
BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED...TRACKING NEWD...WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGESTS A
FEW STORMS COULD BE ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES.

...WI/PARTS OF UPPER MI AND MUCH OF LOWER MI...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT MAY BE LEFT
OVER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
MN INTO WRN WI. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER SERN MN. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY DELAY STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE THIS LIMITING
FACTOR...MOISTURE ADVECTION /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 F/ APPEAR LIKELY INTO WI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THESE VALUES NOW OVER IA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
EML/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES SHOULD
SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
BE WEAK...MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AS IT ADVANCE INTO ERN WI AND EVENTUALLY LOWER MI...WITH
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH EWD EXTENT SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS POSSIBLE SHOULD BE GREATEST FROM CENTRAL/ERN WI INTO
UPPER AND LOWER MI. MODELS SUGGEST ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM SRN MN TO LOWER MI.


--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

Biggest Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
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snowlover2
post Jun 6 2011, 01:17 AM
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From: Dayton,OH
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New day 2
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...STG ANTICYCLONE NOW COVERING MUCH OF
S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH
PERIOD...CORE OF WHICH WILL REACH TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS REGION
BY 8/12Z. PRONOUNCED CYCLONE...CURRENTLY APCHG CENTRAL CA
COAST...IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY INTO STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION/VORTICITY LOBE OVER NWRN WY/SRN MT BY 7/12Z.
FULL TRANSITION TO OPEN-WAVE STRUCTURE SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN
PERIOD...WITH RESULTING TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD TO NEAR ND/MN BORDER
AND SERN MB BY 8/12Z. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER
W COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH TWO PERTURBATIONS...
1. OPEN-WAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF
WA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED
DAY-2...MOVING ONSHORE CENTRAL CA COAST DURING DAY...AND REACHING
CENTRAL/SRN NV AND AREAS OFFSHORE SRN CA BY END OF PERIOD.
2. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN PANHANDLE OF AK -- FCST TO DIG
SEWD OVER WRN BC DAY-1 AS CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW...THEN MOVE SLOWLY
SSEWD/SEWD OVER WA DAY-2.

AT SFC...OCCLUSION/TRIPLE POINT LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN
PERIOD OVER ERN ND...WITH OCCLUDED FRONT BENDING BACK WNWWD TO OLDER
CYCLONE OVER ERN MT...AND WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS SRN MN...WI..LM AND
LOWER MI. BY 8/00Z...WRN LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER WRN ND...WITH
TROUGH AND COLLOCATED REMNANTS OF OCCLUDED FRONT EWD TO MAIN SFC LOW
OVER NWRN MN. WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD OVER NERN MN...WRN LS
AND UPPER MI. COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SWWD ACROSS ERN SD AND
CENTRAL NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS AS PART OF
COMBINED LEE-TROUGHING/FRONTAL-WAVE PROCESS. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND
FROM ERN SD SWD ACROSS POSITIONS CENTRAL KS/OK AND CENTRAL TX.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
SCATTERED/ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD OVER PORTIONS NERN MT...NWRN SD AND/OR WRN-CENTRAL
ND...CARRYING OVER DAY-1 CONVECTIVE REGIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HAIL. IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT NEWD
OVER CANADA...ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON ALONG BENT-BACK FRONTAL SEGMENT. SUCH
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY STG COOLING ALOFT WITH ATTENDANT
STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF EJECTING TROUGH...AS WELL AS
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SFC DIABATIC HEATING...FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND WNWWD-PROTRUDING LOBE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WITH AXIS OF 50S TO LOW-60S SFC DEW POINTS.

ADDITIONAL STG-SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS ERN ND/NRN
MN...SOME OF WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND VERY LARGE BUOYANCY EXPECTED FROM
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE SWD. CINH AT ROOT OF STG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...HOWEVER MOST OPERATIONAL AND SREF PROGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR OF WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S ALONG COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...IS
VERY CONDITIONAL AND LESS PROBABLE...GIVEN ITS COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE...MORE VEERED SFC FLOW AND EVEN STRONGER
CAPPING. ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...BEFORE EVOLVING UPSCALE INTO NOCTURNAL
COMPLEX OVER WI/LS REGION.

...INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AS STG SFC HEATING AND
LIFT INVOF ERN LOBE OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE OCCURS...BENEATH ZONE OF
DIFLUENT WNWLY-NWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH OCNL SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ALSO MAY PROVIDE MORE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE FOCI.
LIMITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SVR WILL BE LACK OF
STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS...AND ACCORDINGLY...WEAKNESS OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...MID-60S TO LOWER 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON OVER
MUCH OF THIS AREA...SUPPORTING STG-EXTREME CAPE EXPECTED PORTIONS
LOWER MI ACROSS OH...WITH VALUES IN 3000-5000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH NEWD FROM OH ACROSS WRN/NRN
NY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
STILL IN PLACE. WHILE MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR MODE SHOULD
PREDOMINATE...PROBABLE DENSITY OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO JUSTIFY PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL
RISK ATTM.



...SRN PLAINS....
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY BEHIND SFC DRYLINE...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE/HEATING
POSSIBLE TO OVERCOME CINH AND SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG.
THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED...TIED STRICTLY
TO DIABATIC BOUNDARY-LAYER PROCESSES...AND SHOULD TERMINATE FAST
AFTER DARK. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEPTH/LOW RH OF SUBCLOUD LAYER...HOWEVER UNCONDITIONAL SVR
THREAT IS TOO LOW FOR AOA 5% PROBABILITIES ATTM.


--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

Biggest Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Jun 6 2011, 02:40 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,928
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New day 3
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN KS TO LM...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STG ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER SERN CONUS...AND POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH FROM
NRN ROCKIES OFFSHORE SRN CA. SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING -- OVER GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN PERIOD -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
09/12Z. MID-UPPER CYCLONE NOW APCHG CA COAST WILL HAVE DEAMPLIFIED
TO WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NWRN ONT BY ABOUT 08/18Z. STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER AK PANHANDLE SHOULD EVOLVE TO CLOSED LOW MOVING
SLOWLY SSEWD OVER INTERIOR NW DAY-3.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING NRN-STREAM TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH ERN LS...WI AND IA BY 09/00Z. AT THAT TIME...WRN
SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN KS...WITH
COMBINED FRONTAL-WAVE/LEE-SIDE LOW OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS AREA. WARM
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN QUE SEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN KS...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON IN FRONTAL
BELT AT LEAST BETWEEN ERN WI AND STJ/MKC REGION...WITH CONDITIONAL
THREAT NEWD OVER UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI. DISCRETE AND MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED BACKBUILDING ALSO MAY OCCUR ATOP SOMEWHAT
DRIER/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SWWD TOWARD CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL KS.
MAIN THREAT THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT FRONTAL LIFT AND STG
DIABATIC HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT TO ERODE CINH FAIRLY QUICKLY
DURING AFTERNOON OVER WI/IA. HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE...SUPPORTED
BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S AND 70S F OVER CORN BELT...WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE IN 4000-5000 J/KG RANGE NERN KS TO WI...DIMINISHING TO
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL KS AND UPPER MI.
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AS WELL
AS SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT OF MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY. THREAT
SHOULD BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED AND MRGL AFTER DARK...THOUGH A STG-SVR
CLUSTER OR TWO MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FOOTHILLS REGION...
AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SMALL BUT FAIRLY
WELL-FOCUSED AREA...SPECIFICALLY ALONG AND JUST E OF FOOTHILLS AND
CHEYENNE AND/OR PALMER RIDGES WHERE DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD REMOVE CINH. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
COMBINE WITH AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT TSTM
POTENTIAL...IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE SUBSTANTIAL ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES TO BOTH LIFT AND VARIOUS MEASURES OF VERTICAL
SHEAR. AS SUCH...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
BEING LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD
OVER PORTIONS NERN CO...ERN WY...EXTREME SWRN SD AND NEB
PANHANDLE...BEFORE WEAKENING IN LATE EVENING AS MLCINH STRENGTHENS.

...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
AFTERNOON...IN REGIME OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND AT
LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NWRN CONUS MID-UPPER CYCLONE.
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND RELATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS
AND OCNL HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
EXPECT RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL TSTM
CLUSTERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCNL STG-SVR GUSTS...AS PLUME OF VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR SLOWLY SPREADS FURTHER INLAND TOWARD
MID-SOUTH. STG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND LIFT ALONG SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE MAIN FOCI.


--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

Biggest Snowfall:5" 11/16+17/14

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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SADBadger
post Jun 6 2011, 08:52 AM
Post #10




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My weather radio went off before my alarm clock did this morning, sending the guinea pig scurrying for cover (smart pig!). We are under a Svr Tstrm Watch right now. No warnings, but it is dark.


--------------------
Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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SADBadger
post Jun 6 2011, 09:18 AM
Post #11




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It looks like they're cancelling the watch box on the back side of this line of storms. Still expecting more storms later, as I hear.

Rain and thunder currently. Not looking forward to the mugginess on the back side of the front.



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Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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SADBadger
post Jun 6 2011, 12:47 PM
Post #12




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New Day 1 outlook (visual below)

QUOTE
PC AC 061614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN RCKYS/GRT BASIN
EWD INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL CA AND WILL ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON TO WY/SRN MT BY 12Z TUE.

N/S COLD FRONT THRU NV WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS SERN ID/UT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY WITH THE SUPPORT OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS LEE OF WY MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEEPENS NNEWD INTO SERN MT TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSPORT AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
ERN/CNTRL MT.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS EXPANDS EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT ACROSS THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE.

..MT/DAKOTAS INTO NRN RCKYS/NRN GRT BASIN TODAY/TNGT...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING WWD THRU THE DAY E OF THE
DIVIDE IN MT HOWEVER CAP WILL DELAY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS BEGINNING BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN/SCENTRAL MT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
INITIAL THREAT...HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NWD FROM WY AND
STRONG ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH UPPER TROUGH...AN UPSWING
IN INTENSITY AND NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER
DARK AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF MT POSSIBLY INTO WRN ND/NWRN
SD. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL THRU AT LEAST
THE EVENING...AND AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE
MCS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN ALONG WITH THE LARGE
HAIL.

W OF THE DIVIDE IN WY AND SWRN MT...A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY AS THE
INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING FRONT
FROM THE NRN WASATCH FRONT/SERN ID BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEWD
ACROSS WRN WY THIS EVENING.

FURTHER E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WOULD BE DRIVEN BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHERE SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
JET AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE W. HAIL POSSIBLY VERY LARGE WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY BE ELEVATED WITHIN A
MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...UPR GRT LKS......
ELEVATED STORMS NOW OVER ERN WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
GENERALLY EWD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING INFLUENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS REGION
LATER TODAY. THE WI STORM CLUSTER ALSO ESSENTIALLY MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF EML CAP SPREADING ENEWD WITH EXPANDING UPR RIDGE.
THE CAP LIKELY WILL DELAY AND MAY PROHIBIT DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR STORMS BOTH ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE EXISTING CLUSTER...ALONG
NE-MOVING WARM FRONT...AND ALONG STNRY FRONT IN CENTRAL MN. STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW COULD SUPPORT
A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS BY EVE...INCLUDING A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
OTHER LESS SUSTAINED STRUCTURES.

WITH MLCAPE LIKELY AOA 3000 J/KG...THE STORMS WITH ALL FORMS OF SVR
WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES. FORWARD PROPAGATING MCSS MAY
EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF WI...AND INTO MI THIS EVE AS
WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM SRN MN TO LWR MI.

...SERN STATES/GULF CST THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...STRONG SFC HEATING OF MOISTURE-RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SCTD WWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF
STRONG/BRIEFLY SVR PULSE STORMS IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON
SIDE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS.

..HALES/SMITH.. 06/06/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1743Z (12:43PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


This post has been edited by SADBadger: Jun 6 2011, 12:48 PM
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Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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SADBadger
post Jun 6 2011, 12:58 PM
Post #13




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New Day 2
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SADBadger
post Jun 6 2011, 02:13 PM
Post #14




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QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061902Z - 062100Z

STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WRN UPPER MI AND
ADJACENT NRN WI...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL
EVIDENT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN UPPER MI...WHERE 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER CU INCREASE -- AND EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
-- OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

ALOFT...THIS REGION LIES ON THE NRN FRINGE OF FLAT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING...WITH 40 TO 50 KT WLYS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS CAN MERGE/EXPAND ALONG A FUTURE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...THREAT FOR A FORWARD/ESEWD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE COULD EVOLVE -- AND EVENTUALLY
AFFECT PARTS OF ERN UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI.


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Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 6 2011, 03:05 PM
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--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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WeatherMonger
post Jun 6 2011, 03:16 PM
Post #16




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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





I don't see a topic for the dates in question, so I'll post it here until a new thread is made or dates are extended

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
211 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS COULD PROVE TO BE A
VERY EFFICIENT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CLOSELY
FOR THAT PERIOD. AMOUNT OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DETERMINE THE
ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM THAT THE FRONT GETS FOR MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.


BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO HOW FAR THE FRONT IS
ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
TO PUSH THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH WITH LAST FEW RUNS. THIS MAY
ALLOW US TO GET DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE COOL AIR TO DRY OUT A BIT
FOR THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL ADJUST TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. WILL NOT QUITE
BRING FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS CURRENT HPC PROGS BUT WILL TREND THAT
DIRECTION...AND WILL GO WITH ONLY LOW POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.
THIS ASSUMES THE FRONT WILL SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THIS CONCLUSION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN GENERAL...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH THROUGH
MIDWEEK TRENDING TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

BARKER

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SADBadger
post Jun 6 2011, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(Illinois blizzard @ Jun 6 2011, 03:05 PM) *
Attached Image


Weird that there's no hail or wind probability in the slight risk area across the Nrn Plains/Grt Lks area but a very small probability of a tornado, while in OK/KS there is a 45% hatched hail risk but no tornado risk.





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Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 6 2011, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(SADBadger @ Jun 6 2011, 03:29 PM) *
Weird that there's no hail or wind probability in the slight risk area across the Nrn Plains/Grt Lks area but a very small probability of a tornado, while in OK/KS there is a 45% hatched hail risk but no tornado risk.

Think you may be having a Cache issue






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WeatherMonger
post Jun 6 2011, 03:43 PM
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Not sure if ID is within this regio or not, but the tornado warned storm out there

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SADBadger
post Jun 6 2011, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jun 6 2011, 03:34 PM) *
Think you may be having a Cache issue



You're probably right there.


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Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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