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> Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends
Niyologist
post Mar 14 2012, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE(harley8778 @ Mar 14 2012, 09:31 AM) *
Dumb question, but where can I see what those winters were like for different parts of the country? Thanks!


Here ya go! smile.gif

Source


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harley8778
post Mar 15 2012, 10:37 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Mar 14 2012, 02:12 PM) *
Here ya go! smile.gif

Source


Thanks! Looks pretty promising...
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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 15 2012, 05:49 PM
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Aren't weak west based El Ninos best for snow and cold for the northeast?


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Niyologist
post Mar 15 2012, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(FarmingdaleFarmer @ Mar 15 2012, 06:49 PM) *
Aren't weak west based El Ninos best for snow and cold for the northeast?


Yes.


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mr freeze
post Mar 16 2012, 12:45 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Mar 15 2012, 06:44 PM) *
Yes.



And strong east based Ninos are the worst for the east coast. Remember the god awful winter of 1997-1998? A memory I'd like to forget. Good riddance. That was worse than what we just went through, atleast in the cities. Atleast this past winter we had several blasts of arctic air eventhough they only lasted a day or two. In 97-98, we really had Zero blasts of arctic air. The warmth was consistent and endless with virtually no interruptions! Hard to imagine anything being worse than what we just encountered this past winter but for the east coast cities, it was. Oddly enough, much further north up towards Maine, 97-98 was bad because of some bad ice storms. Real bad!


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"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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FarmingdaleFarme...
post Mar 16 2012, 05:14 PM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Mar 16 2012, 01:45 AM) *
And strong east based Ninos are the worst for the east coast. Remember the god awful winter of 1997-1998? A memory I'd like to forget. Good riddance. That was worse than what we just went through, atleast in the cities. Atleast this past winter we had several blasts of arctic air eventhough they only lasted a day or two. In 97-98, we really had Zero blasts of arctic air. The warmth was consistent and endless with virtually no interruptions! Hard to imagine anything being worse than what we just encountered this past winter but for the east coast cities, it was. Oddly enough, much further north up towards Maine, 97-98 was bad because of some bad ice storms. Real bad!



I was too young to remember that winter, but I have herd stories about it and it sounds like it might have been worse that this winter was.


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mr freeze
post Mar 16 2012, 09:02 PM
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QUOTE(FarmingdaleFarmer @ Mar 16 2012, 06:14 PM) *
I was too young to remember that winter, but I have herd stories about it and it sounds like it might have been worse that this winter was.


Well, let's put it this way........they both sucked immensely! As for NYC and Long Island, the 97-98 winter had virtually no cold days at all. If I am not mistaken, we had an arctic blast to ring in the new year. However, there was virtually no cold air at all following that short lived cold blast. I don't think NYC had even 2 inches of snow through March 1st. When March arrived, we finally had a quick hitting 4-5 inch wet snow event (can't recall the exact date). So as far as snow goes, they were about the same despite occuring in different time frames. Still when it comes to the cold air, this winter of 11-12 has it beat eventhough that's not saying much! Atleast this winter had some one or two day cold blasts sprinkled in but 97-98 was endless warmth without interruption. Ask a few more folks who are weather buffs and you'll probably see they agree with me. Further north, a whole different story! Crippling ice storms (97-98)!


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"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 19 2012, 03:19 PM
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This should have gone into the Long Range Fall 2012 thread but since there has not been a thread for Fall 2012 opened I thought I would put it here for now.

I got this off JB's twitter feed. Take it for what it is worth since it is long range. I believe it is the JMA model. The picture on the left shows the March 1, 2011 forecast for September, October, November 2011. The picture on the right shows the March 1, 2012 forecast for September, October, November 2012. I also put the actual Temperature Anomalies for Sept. - Nov. 2011 in the bottom picture to see how well the March 1, 2011 JMA run verified.

To me it looks like it did a pretty good job for the USA. Not sure for the rest of the globe but the USA was pretty close to what it predicted. SE areas where predicted warmer than they actually where but the JMA did show below normal temps for Florida so it was showing some coolness in that area just off a bit geographically.






Attached File(s)
Attached File  SONAoWnZrQCIAEsAfZ.jpg ( 92.65K ) Number of downloads: 24
Attached File  cd10_16_0_56_78_14_3_10_prcp.png ( 130.74K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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fisherboy
post Mar 21 2012, 09:05 PM
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Just in the past few days it looks like a la nada may be in the cards for this winter blink.gif


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mr freeze
post Mar 21 2012, 10:57 PM
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QUOTE(fisherboy @ Mar 21 2012, 10:05 PM) *
Just in the past few days it looks like a la nada may be in the cards for this winter blink.gif


A few nuggets from Joe Daleo: Some different scenarios (not an official forecast)



The La Nadas following El Nino, looked like El Nino with cold east and southeast warm west. All had warm PDO which likely played a key role in that.


The La Nadas that had a cold PDO remembered the classic La Nina pattern of cool northwest and warm southeast. Actually more likely the cold PDO drives the pattern.


The warm PDO La Nada/borderline El Nino of 1976/77 which followed 4 of 6 years of La Nina was brutal. It followed la ninas in 1970/71/, 1971/72, an El Nino in 1972/73 and then La Ninas in 1973/4, 1974/75 and 1975/76.


So if we want a winter more like 2009/10 or 2010/11, we want the ENSO to go to at least weak El Nino strength or the PDO weaken. It is hard to get the PDO to flip without the ENSO flipping.


Source: Weatherbell


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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 26 2012, 03:56 PM
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El Nino?
Attached File  1.gif ( 39.09K ) Number of downloads: 5

Attached File  3.gif ( 17.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Niyologist
post Mar 26 2012, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Mar 26 2012, 04:56 PM) *
El Nino?
Attached File  1.gif ( 39.09K ) Number of downloads: 5

Attached File  3.gif ( 17.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


+Neutral ENSO or a Very Weak El Nino.


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SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6

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bigmt
post Mar 26 2012, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(harley8778 @ Mar 14 2012, 09:31 AM) *
Dumb question, but where can I see what those winters were like for different parts of the country? Thanks!


This is a good site.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/...es/printpage.pl

Also, this one is a bit easier to use.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

Here are the two winters in question.

57-58, 500mb pattern:

Attached File  500mb1958.png ( 12.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface temps:

Attached File  temp1958.png ( 13.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  StMap_Mar2617_48_527366943359.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

Attached File  StMap_Mar2617_49_058404846191.gif ( 413.08K ) Number of downloads: 1


77-78, 500mb pattern:

Attached File  500mb1978.png ( 13.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


Surface temps:

Attached File  temp1978.png ( 15.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  StMap_Mar2617_50_090220336914.gif ( 416.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

Attached File  StMap_Mar2617_49_581827392578.gif ( 413.08K ) Number of downloads: 0
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The Snowman
post Apr 1 2012, 04:32 PM
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Anyone see this? huh.gif
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2012_04_01_at_4.30.29_PM.png ( 308.23K ) Number of downloads: 40
 


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2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
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Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
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paletitsnow63
post Apr 2 2012, 07:56 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Apr 1 2012, 05:32 PM) *
Anyone see this? huh.gif

Interesting. I knew JB and Ryan were friends in their profession so I can easily believe that they may help each other out.
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harley8778
post Apr 2 2012, 08:31 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 26 2012, 05:52 PM) *
This is a good site.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/...es/printpage.pl

Also, this one is a bit easier to use.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

Here are the two winters in question.

57-58, 500mb pattern:



Surface temps:



Precip:



77-78, 500mb pattern:



Surface temps:



Precip:


Thanks for the information. Good websites!
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jdrenken
post Apr 8 2012, 03:11 PM
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Bringing an "Oldie, but goodie" back from last year. JB called for the 2012/2013 winter being colder than 2011/2012. I think he has a good chance of it verifying. laugh.gif


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jdrenken
post Apr 8 2012, 09:47 PM
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For those who are running with the CFS...look at what it's showing for December.
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Attached File  April_CFS__2012_December.JPG ( 67.26K ) Number of downloads: 20
 


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Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Apr 9 2012, 07:26 AM
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[uote nae='harley8778' date='Apr 2 2012, 08:31 AM' post='1545744'][font="Century Gothic"][/font]
Thanks for the information. Good websites!
[/quote]

Yea, wouldnt take much for that to be true
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jdrenken
post Apr 10 2012, 07:03 AM
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It looks like the JAMSTEC will be updated today. I've looked at the website and April is an option, but the picture isn't coming up.


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It's a work in progress!

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