 Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts  |
 Apr 12 2012, 01:44 AM
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#161
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 28,351 Joined: 2-December 09 From: Temecula, California Member No.: 19,931  |
Either Neutral, Neutral/Warm or Weak El Nino seem to be the most likely scenarios next winter. We'll see...
-------------------- Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2012-2013: 7.27" (-6.52") Normal to-date precipitation: 13.79" East Murrieta Seasonal Precipitation 2012-2013: 7.11" Season began July 1st, 2012. Temecula Weather Pages |
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Apr 16 2012, 09:04 AM
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#162
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 503 Joined: 4-March 09 From: Powhatan, VA Member No.: 17,848 |
April 2012 forecast from the Euro... warmer than the previous 3 forecasts.
Posted below are the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 forecasts respectively.   
This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Apr 16 2012, 09:05 AM |
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Apr 16 2012, 11:55 AM
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#163
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,843 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978 |
JB already hyping the heck out of this........
AqnX5KQCEAA_83Z.jpg ( 95.02K )
Number of downloads: 27Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details Okay, here it is , a warmingista nightmare, fall and winter WITH US COLD!. So lets see how they will report this http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/m....com%2FpHxsRieY -------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13---------
First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention |
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 Apr 16 2012, 12:40 PM
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#164
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,691 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 16 2012, 12:55 PM)  JB already hyping the heck out of this........
AqnX5KQCEAA_83Z.jpg ( 95.02K )
Number of downloads: 27Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details Okay, here it is , a warmingista nightmare, fall and winter WITH US COLD!. So lets see how they will report this http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/m....com%2FpHxsRieY This was to be expected. BTW, with a +Neutral, this is to be expected. This departure map reminds me of Autumn 2003. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Apr 16 2012, 03:08 PM
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#165
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 503 Joined: 4-March 09 From: Powhatan, VA Member No.: 17,848 |
QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 16 2012, 12:55 PM) JB already hyping the heck out of this........
AqnX5KQCEAA_83Z.jpg ( 95.02K )
Number of downloads: 27Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details Okay, here it is , a warmingista nightmare, fall and winter WITH US COLD!. So lets see how they will report this http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/m....com%2FpHxsRieY I knew the April release of the JMA 2m temp anomalies for SON and DJF would surface sooner or later... I didnt even post it because it worth nothing right now really. Its the middle of April, not September/October ha! This is nothing more than JB up to his usual antics IMHO, I feel like we should have a bell boy saying " Nothing to see here folks, keep moving along" when his stuff like this surfaces. 
This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Apr 16 2012, 03:08 PM |
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Apr 16 2012, 03:23 PM
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#166
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 503 Joined: 4-March 09 From: Powhatan, VA Member No.: 17,848 |
QUOTE(Niyologist @ Apr 16 2012, 01:40 PM) This was to be expected. BTW, with a +Neutral, this is to be expected. This departure map reminds me of Autumn 2003. Not that Im willing to go out on a limb here and predict it, but the way things are rolling now on a model basis "+Neutral" may be the lower bound come this fall and winter. All of these are April releases: Euro is showing moderate El Nino CFS V2 is showing moderate El Nino Lamont-Doherty is showing moderate El Nino POAMA is showing weak El Nino UKMET is showing moderate El Nino ECHAMA is showing moderate El Nino GFDL is showing moderate El Nino GMAO is showing moderate El Nino JMA is showing strong El Nino JAMSTEC is showing weak El Nino Granted this is just a sampling since I dont have time to go through all of them ( the IRI forecast that will get released for Mid-April should highlight the others I didnt here ), but a vast majority of the major models are going for a weak to moderate El Nino. Obviously still a VERY LONG ways out and absolutely nothing to hang your hat on, but the trend is definitely warmer compared to those same model's forecasts three months ago. This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Apr 16 2012, 03:24 PM |
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Apr 16 2012, 07:55 PM
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#167
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,691 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Apr 16 2012, 10:04 AM) April 2012 forecast from the Euro... warmer than the previous 3 forecasts. Posted below are the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 forecasts respectively. Looks like a West-Based El Nino. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Apr 16 2012, 09:20 PM
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#168
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,843 Joined: 24-January 08 From: 39.96N, 74.2W Member No.: 12,978 |
Well I guess if we go with this, time to get an early start to saddling up the plow trucks and buying up leftover overflow of snow blowers....
 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · Details And speak of the devil, maybe its March followed by brutal winter. Jamstec fall/winter forecast.Its setting up.. again -------------------- Fall/Winter 2012/13---------
First Snow: 11/7/12 - 7 inches Bunch of Clippers that produced a total of 3 inches... 2/8/13 - Blizzard backend snows - 6.5 inches +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WINTER 2009/2010 Season 73.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2010/2011 Season total - 49 inches ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WINTER 2011/2012 Season Toal - Too little to mention |
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Apr 17 2012, 05:26 AM
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#169
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,736 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
Years with a weak El Nino since 1950
1951-1952 1963-1964 1968-1969 1969-1970 1976-1977 1977-1978 2004-2005 2006-2007 Using all those years, here's how the blend of temperature & precip look. Cold and Normal precip for most.  Who wants a snow graph of those years now? :-) 
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Apr 19 2012, 07:41 PM
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#170
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 261 Joined: 14-August 08 From: greentown, pa Member No.: 15,365 |
QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Apr 16 2012, 04:08 PM) I knew the April release of the JMA 2m temp anomalies for SON and DJF would surface sooner or later... I didnt even post it because it worth nothing right now really. Its the middle of April, not September/October ha! This is nothing more than JB up to his usual antics IMHO, I feel like we should have a bell boy saying " Nothing to see here folks, keep moving along" when his stuff like this surfaces. I hav a good feeling he will be right this winter, and then everyone else will be laughing. -------------------- Snowplowing events- 1
Ice control events 1 Total snowfall 2011-12 35.5 Snowfighters are not miracle works. We are dedicated, hardworking human beings who pit their will against the forces of nature. |
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Apr 19 2012, 08:13 PM
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#171
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,446 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(fisherboy @ Apr 19 2012, 07:41 PM) I hav a good feeling he will be right this winter, and then everyone else will be laughing. If he keeps calling for cold and snow a million times, eventually at least once it has to verify... -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Apr 19 2012, 10:04 PM
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#172
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 81 Joined: 29-January 10 From: Central NJ Member No.: 21,176 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 19 2012, 09:13 PM) If he keeps calling for cold and snow a million times, eventually at least once it has to verify... Exactly, and then he'll be patting himself on the back while Tweeting about how it was 'predicted on Weather Bell almost a year ago'. Heck, he's already been doing that the 10% of the time he's been right lately. It's too bad he has to be so arrogant and obnoxious, because he really is extremely knowledgeable about weather. |
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| Removed_Member_weathertree4u_* |
Apr 20 2012, 08:01 PM
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#173
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Guests |
QUOTE(thedarkestclouds @ Apr 19 2012, 10:04 PM) Exactly, and then he'll be patting himself on the back while Tweeting about how it was 'predicted on Weather Bell almost a year ago'. Heck, he's already been doing that the 10% of the time he's been right lately. It's too bad he has to be so arrogant and obnoxious, because he really is extremely knowledgeable about weather. Accuweather should rename this thread "*bleep* about Bastardi" I have said it before and I will say it again, give it a break, everyone, geese, Bastardi is entilted to his opinion just as everyone else |
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Apr 20 2012, 08:06 PM
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#174
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,437 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Apr 20 2012, 08:01 PM) Accuweather should rename this thread "*bleep* about Bastardi" I have said it before and I will say it again, give it a break, everyone, geese, Bastardi is entilted to his opinion just as everyone else Any publicity is good publicity...right? You put yourself out there with tweets and comments during a lull time, it's bound to get attention. Otherwise, this thread would be dead. -------------------- |
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Apr 21 2012, 03:03 PM
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#175
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,560 Joined: 17-April 10 From: Wappinger Falls, NY Member No.: 22,541 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 17 2012, 06:26 AM) Years with a weak El Nino since 1950 1951-1952 1963-1964 1968-1969 1969-1970 1976-1977 1977-1978 2004-2005 2006-2007 Using all those years, here's how the blend of temperature & precip look. Cold and Normal precip for most. Who wants a snow graph of those years now? :-) Me -------------------- SvrWxWARN |
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Apr 21 2012, 06:08 PM
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#176
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 833 Joined: 12-September 08 From: SW BC, Canada Member No.: 15,716 |
QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Apr 21 2012, 01:03 PM) Me Look how little precipitation I get. |
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Apr 22 2012, 07:05 PM
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#177
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 96 Joined: 4-February 12 From: Suffolk, VA Member No.: 26,397 |
QUOTE(stuffradio @ Apr 21 2012, 07:08 PM) Look how little precipitation I get. You can have BN precipitation, and still have snow. With an El Nino on the rise, it just depends where you are. -------------------- .:Winter Countdown:.
1. Days start getting shorter. 2. Trees start changing color. 3. First straight-form rainfall. 4. First sub-70 high temperature. 5. First frost. 6. First sub-60 high temperature. 7. First freeze. 8. Leaf-drop complete. 9. First flakes. 10. WINTER! |
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Apr 27 2012, 03:38 PM
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#178
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,904 Joined: 15-February 08 From: Bolingbrook, IL Member No.: 13,723 |
If I go to sleep with snow on the ground and wake up with snow on the ground just one night this coming winter...then my snowpack will have lasted longer then it did last winter...
It will be interesting to see how snowfall/cold predictions are accepted after last year... Things sure have been dry in my neck of the woods thus far this spring...we'll have to keep an eye on how much precip ends up in the soil come fall...amongst other things of course lol oh well, just bored... cheers |
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Apr 27 2012, 04:07 PM
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#179
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,446 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Apr 27 2012, 04:38 PM) If I go to sleep with snow on the ground and wake up with snow on the ground just one night this coming winter...then my snowpack will have lasted longer then it did last winter... It will be interesting to see how snowfall/cold predictions are accepted after last year... Things sure have been dry in my neck of the woods thus far this spring...we'll have to keep an eye on how much precip ends up in the soil come fall...amongst other things of course lol oh well, just bored... cheers After this "winter", the bolded would be easy to accomplish... since I started to record my weather observations in 2004, this is the first winter where I did not keep track of daily snow cover; not that it would be a lot of work because other than October all I'd have to do is add a handful of traces and a single 4" and that's it 
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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May 1 2012, 02:53 PM
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#180
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,736 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
April 30th Nino Update - PDF File
A fraction more confidence of an El Nino Winter than a Neutral Winter, but, More confidence of an El Nino Winter than an El Nino Spring, and, Less confidence of a Neutral Winter than a Neutral Spring, so, El Nino confidence builds towards winter while Neutral confidence lessens. Hows that for a tounge & mind twister? lol 
Nino.jpg ( 188.96K )
Number of downloads: 2 |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 19th June 2013 - 06:38 AM |