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> Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends
Beck
post Apr 12 2012, 01:44 AM
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Either Neutral, Neutral/Warm or Weak El Nino seem to be the most likely scenarios next winter. We'll see...


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 3.94" (+1.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 2.94"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 1.23"*
*Beginning December 5th, 2014 (new location, Central Murrieta).

Temecula Weather Pages
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VASnowstormHunte...
post Apr 16 2012, 09:04 AM
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April 2012 forecast from the Euro... warmer than the previous 3 forecasts.

Posted below are the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 forecasts respectively.







This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Apr 16 2012, 09:05 AM
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grandpaboy
post Apr 16 2012, 11:55 AM
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JB already hyping the heck out of this........


Attached File  AqnX5KQCEAA_83Z.jpg ( 95.02K ) Number of downloads: 27



Joe Bastardi ‏ @BigJoeBastardi
FavoritedFavorite Close Open Details Okay, here it is , a warmingista nightmare, fall and winter WITH US COLD!. So lets see how they will report this


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/m....com%2FpHxsRieY


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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Niyologist
post Apr 16 2012, 12:40 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 16 2012, 12:55 PM) *
JB already hyping the heck out of this........


Attached File  AqnX5KQCEAA_83Z.jpg ( 95.02K ) Number of downloads: 27



Joe Bastardi ‏ @BigJoeBastardi
FavoritedFavorite Close Open Details Okay, here it is , a warmingista nightmare, fall and winter WITH US COLD!. So lets see how they will report this


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/m....com%2FpHxsRieY


This was to be expected. BTW, with a +Neutral, this is to be expected. This departure map reminds me of Autumn 2003.


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VASnowstormHunte...
post Apr 16 2012, 03:08 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 16 2012, 12:55 PM) *
JB already hyping the heck out of this........
Attached File  AqnX5KQCEAA_83Z.jpg ( 95.02K ) Number of downloads: 27

Joe Bastardi ‏ @BigJoeBastardi
FavoritedFavorite Close Open Details Okay, here it is , a warmingista nightmare, fall and winter WITH US COLD!. So lets see how they will report this
http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/m....com%2FpHxsRieY


I knew the April release of the JMA 2m temp anomalies for SON and DJF would surface sooner or later... I didnt even post it because it worth nothing right now really. Its the middle of April, not September/October ha!

This is nothing more than JB up to his usual antics IMHO, I feel like we should have a bell boy saying " Nothing to see here folks, keep moving along" when his stuff like this surfaces. wink.gif

This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Apr 16 2012, 03:08 PM
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VASnowstormHunte...
post Apr 16 2012, 03:23 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Apr 16 2012, 01:40 PM) *
This was to be expected. BTW, with a +Neutral, this is to be expected. This departure map reminds me of Autumn 2003.


Not that Im willing to go out on a limb here and predict it, but the way things are rolling now on a model basis "+Neutral" may be the lower bound come this fall and winter.

All of these are April releases:

Euro is showing moderate El Nino
CFS V2 is showing moderate El Nino
Lamont-Doherty is showing moderate El Nino
POAMA is showing weak El Nino
UKMET is showing moderate El Nino
ECHAMA is showing moderate El Nino
GFDL is showing moderate El Nino
GMAO is showing moderate El Nino
JMA is showing strong El Nino
JAMSTEC is showing weak El Nino

Granted this is just a sampling since I dont have time to go through all of them ( the IRI forecast that will get released for Mid-April should highlight the others I didnt here ), but a vast majority of the major models are going for a weak to moderate El Nino.

Obviously still a VERY LONG ways out and absolutely nothing to hang your hat on, but the trend is definitely warmer compared to those same model's forecasts three months ago.

This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Apr 16 2012, 03:24 PM
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Niyologist
post Apr 16 2012, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Apr 16 2012, 10:04 AM) *
April 2012 forecast from the Euro... warmer than the previous 3 forecasts.

Posted below are the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 forecasts respectively.







Looks like a West-Based El Nino.


--------------------
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grandpaboy
post Apr 16 2012, 09:20 PM
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Well I guess if we go with this, time to get an early start to saddling up the plow trucks and buying up leftover overflow of snow blowers.... dry.gif


Joe Bastardi ‏ @BigJoeBastardi Details
And speak of the devil, maybe its March followed by brutal winter. Jamstec fall/winter forecast.Its setting up.. again


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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NorEaster07
post Apr 17 2012, 05:26 AM
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Years with a weak El Nino since 1950

1951-1952
1963-1964
1968-1969
1969-1970
1976-1977
1977-1978
2004-2005
2006-2007

Using all those years, here's how the blend of temperature & precip look. Cold and Normal precip for most.



Who wants a snow graph of those years now? :-) smile.gif


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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fisherboy
post Apr 19 2012, 07:41 PM
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QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Apr 16 2012, 04:08 PM) *
I knew the April release of the JMA 2m temp anomalies for SON and DJF would surface sooner or later... I didnt even post it because it worth nothing right now really. Its the middle of April, not September/October ha!

This is nothing more than JB up to his usual antics IMHO, I feel like we should have a bell boy saying " Nothing to see here folks, keep moving along" when his stuff like this surfaces. wink.gif


I hav a good feeling he will be right this winter, and then everyone else will be laughing.


--------------------
Snowplowing events- 1
Ice control events 1

Total snowfall 2011-12 35.5


Snowfighters are not miracle works.
We are dedicated, hardworking human beings
who pit their will against the forces of nature.
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 19 2012, 08:13 PM
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QUOTE(fisherboy @ Apr 19 2012, 07:41 PM) *
I hav a good feeling he will be right this winter, and then everyone else will be laughing.

If he keeps calling for cold and snow a million times, eventually at least once it has to verify...


--------------------
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thedarkestclouds
post Apr 19 2012, 10:04 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 19 2012, 09:13 PM) *
If he keeps calling for cold and snow a million times, eventually at least once it has to verify...


Exactly, and then he'll be patting himself on the back while Tweeting about how it was 'predicted on Weather Bell almost a year ago'. Heck, he's already been doing that the 10% of the time he's been right lately. It's too bad he has to be so arrogant and obnoxious, because he really is extremely knowledgeable about weather.
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Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Apr 20 2012, 08:01 PM
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QUOTE(thedarkestclouds @ Apr 19 2012, 10:04 PM) *
Exactly, and then he'll be patting himself on the back while Tweeting about how it was 'predicted on Weather Bell almost a year ago'. Heck, he's already been doing that the 10% of the time he's been right lately. It's too bad he has to be so arrogant and obnoxious, because he really is extremely knowledgeable about weather.


Accuweather should rename this thread "*bleep* about Bastardi" I have said it before and I will say it again, give it a break, everyone, geese, Bastardi is entilted to his opinion just as everyone else
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jdrenken
post Apr 20 2012, 08:06 PM
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QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Apr 20 2012, 08:01 PM) *
Accuweather should rename this thread "*bleep* about Bastardi" I have said it before and I will say it again, give it a break, everyone, geese, Bastardi is entilted to his opinion just as everyone else


Any publicity is good publicity...right? You put yourself out there with tweets and comments during a lull time, it's bound to get attention. Otherwise, this thread would be dead.


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The Day After To...
post Apr 21 2012, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 17 2012, 06:26 AM) *
Years with a weak El Nino since 1950

1951-1952
1963-1964
1968-1969
1969-1970
1976-1977
1977-1978
2004-2005
2006-2007

Using all those years, here's how the blend of temperature & precip look. Cold and Normal precip for most.



Who wants a snow graph of those years now? :-) smile.gif

Me


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
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http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com
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stuffradio
post Apr 21 2012, 06:08 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Apr 21 2012, 01:03 PM) *
Me

Look how little precipitation I get.
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Celtic Spring
post Apr 22 2012, 07:05 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Apr 21 2012, 07:08 PM) *
Look how little precipitation I get.


You can have BN precipitation, and still have snow. With an El Nino on the rise, it just depends where you are.


--------------------
.:Winter Countdown:.
1. Days start getting shorter.
2. Trees start changing color.
3. First straight-form rainfall.
4. First sub-70 high temperature.
5. First frost.
6. First sub-60 high temperature.
7. First freeze.
8. Leaf-drop complete.
9. First flakes.
10. WINTER!
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Gilbertfly
post Apr 27 2012, 03:38 PM
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If I go to sleep with snow on the ground and wake up with snow on the ground just one night this coming winter...then my snowpack will have lasted longer then it did last winter...

It will be interesting to see how snowfall/cold predictions are accepted after last year...

Things sure have been dry in my neck of the woods thus far this spring...we'll have to keep an eye on how much precip ends up in the soil come fall...amongst other things of course lol

oh well, just bored...

cheers
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 27 2012, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Apr 27 2012, 04:38 PM) *
If I go to sleep with snow on the ground and wake up with snow on the ground just one night this coming winter...then my snowpack will have lasted longer then it did last winter...

It will be interesting to see how snowfall/cold predictions are accepted after last year...

Things sure have been dry in my neck of the woods thus far this spring...we'll have to keep an eye on how much precip ends up in the soil come fall...amongst other things of course lol

oh well, just bored...

cheers

After this "winter", the bolded would be easy to accomplish... since I started to record my weather observations in 2004, this is the first winter where I did not keep track of daily snow cover; not that it would be a lot of work because other than October all I'd have to do is add a handful of traces and a single 4" and that's it laugh.gif


--------------------
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NorEaster07
post May 1 2012, 02:53 PM
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April 30th Nino Update - PDF File


A fraction more confidence of an El Nino Winter than a Neutral Winter, but,
More confidence of an El Nino Winter than an El Nino Spring, and,
Less confidence of a Neutral Winter than a Neutral Spring, so,
El Nino confidence builds towards winter while Neutral confidence lessens.

Hows that for a tounge & mind twister? lol tongue.gif

Attached File  Nino.jpg ( 188.96K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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