Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends Options

[NYCSuburbs]

Don't know exactly how but I somehow ran into this January 1985 time period, where a very strong PV dropped into the US (850mb temps even reached -40C in the northern US!!). I would easily assume a very cold/snowy pattern is not so likely for the upcoming winter, although I don't care how much it snows as long as I get a polar vortex like this, I would be perfectly fine with not seeing a single flake the entire winter

 012000.png ( 101.18K ) Number of downloads: 12

[jdrenken]

Don't know exactly how but I somehow ran into this January 1985 time period, where a very strong PV dropped into the US (850mb temps even reached -40C in the northern US!!). I would easily assume a very cold/snowy pattern is not so likely for the upcoming winter, although I don't care how much it snows as long as I get a polar vortex like this, I would be perfectly fine with not seeing a single flake the entire winter

 012000.png ( 101.18K ) Number of downloads: 12

That was the analog that JB and his followers Firsthandweather were using for this past January.

[NYCSuburbs]

That was the analog that JB and his followers Firsthandweather were using for this past January.

Now I know what JB was talking about when he said 1985... why am I not surprised

Perhaps I should mention that time period was followed by several consecutive Mid Atlantic/NE cold snowstorms... only one word can describe this: the classic "sigh..."

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: May 1 2012, 04:59 PM

[Fire/Rescue]

After this "winter", the bolded would be easy to accomplish... since I started to record my weather observations in 2004, this is the first winter where I did not keep track of daily snow cover; not that it would be a lot of work because other than October all I'd have to do is add a handful of traces and a single 4" and that's it

Its a total disgrace to say, but your back yard still ended up with "More" snow then mine this past winter down here near Baltimore

My neck of the woods was just a bit to far South East of the Rain/Snow line for the October storm and all I got was a cold rain mixed with wet snow at times.

Now the only time I saw "Accumulation" here IMBY was sometime in February and that totaled a whopping (1" of very wet snow) on non paved surfaces that fell overnight and melted very quickly just after sunrise.

[NorEaster07]

I animated the CFS Monthly Temp Departure out to January as JB just pointed out.

He said, in order to get a big winter after a double La Nina we have to have the water cooler in Eastern Pacific then Central Pacific. You can have it warmer on both sides but the central Pacific needs to be warmer than the Eastern Pacific. OR just get that El Nino to develop.

2 second intervals(I can change it if you want)

[NYCSuburbs]

I animated the CFS Monthly Temp Departure out to January as JB just pointed out.

He said, in order to get a big winter after a double La Nina we have to have the water cooler in Eastern Pacific then Central Pacific. You can have it warmer on both sides but the central Pacific needs to be warmer than the Eastern Pacific. OR just get that El Nino to develop.

2 second intervals(I can change it if you want)

Funny how the CFS treats the warm pattern like it's nothing... we've gone through 14 (soon to be more) months of above average temperatures, and the CFS breaks it just like that and suddenly has 4+ below average months, some of them consecutive depending on the region.

[NorEaster07]

Steve D's new write up says We could be making up for Lost time this winter IF El Nino is west based. If El Nino is east based then it could be another warm winter.

Tid Bit.
"Changes in the stratosphere in the higher latitudes, as we know, has produced a far more favorable environment for a negative AO/NAO environment.

If this continues to be a trend combined with a weak west based El Nino, let’s just say we’ll be making up lost time from last year’s winter in a big way.

We won’t feel the complete influence of these changes until the Fall and Winter.." http://www.nynjpaweather.com/

[The Snowman]

JB

Lengthy, "unprecedented" cold spell hits Morocco; global warming blamed
Cold US winter next yr will be blamed on AGW too

[WinterStorm294]

My Winter Forecast 2012-2013:


Starting from about December 1st, which is the beginning of the meteorological winter, we will see just some snow showers and maybe some very light accumulation. Nothing major. But then, on about December 15th, the GFS hints at a monster storm with 5 inches of moisture heading from the gulf of Mexico up through the Ohio Valley. Then it drops it the next day, but the ECMWF says," Wow, this storm looks possible." On December nineteenth, the GFS, NAM, and the Euro are all surprisingly in agreement. This storm is expected to dump two feet on parts of Michigan. Schools are closed two days in advance of the storm.

Excitement ensues, then it turns out the Mayans were right. NO SNOW FOR US!



Note: This is not my actual winter forecast. This post was intended for a laugh.

[The Snowman]

My Winter Forecast 2012-2013:
Starting from about December 1st, which is the beginning of the meteorological winter, we will see just some snow showers and maybe some very light accumulation. Nothing major. But then, on about December 15th, the GFS hints at a monster storm with 5 inches of moisture heading from the gulf of Mexico up through the Ohio Valley. Then it drops it the next day, but the ECMWF says," Wow, this storm looks possible." On December nineteenth, the GFS, NAM, and the Euro are all surprisingly in agreement. This storm is expected to dump two feet on parts of Michigan. Schools are closed two days in advance of the storm.

Excitement ensues, then it turns out the Mayans were right. NO SNOW FOR US!
Note: This is not my actual winter forecast. This post was intended for a laugh.

My winter forecast: Some snow, some rain, some ice.

[The Snowman]

JB on Facebook/Twitter

Note on last 2 tweets: The US forgot what happened in winters of 09-10, 10-11. WInter will be back for revenge next year here

[stuffradio]

JB on Facebook/Twitter

Makes sense because of how much this feels like '09 to me with our nice warm May weather.

[Niyologist]

JB on Facebook/Twitter

More like Ice Cold Revenge, going based on my research.

[gulfofslides]

Makes sense because of how much this feels like '09 to me with our nice warm May weather.

Has not been warm here yet but it looks like the next 10 days will be 3-5 degrees above avg. After that in the 16-20 day below avg again for SNE. It does remind me of 09 but much wetter so far.

[jdrenken]

More like Ice Cold Revenge, going based on my research.

You know better than to post something like this w/o posting said research.

[NYCSuburbs]

JB on Facebook/Twitter

So if I understand this correctly, just because 2 winters had unprecedented cold/snow suddenly historic winters aren't very uncommon anymore

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: May 12 2012, 04:06 PM

[grandpaboy]

JB on Facebook/Twitter

Take one from JD on this comment...........



.......sigh..........

[NYCSuburbs]

Steve D's new write up says We could be making up for Lost time this winter IF El Nino is west based. If El Nino is east based then it could be another warm winter.

Tid Bit.
"Changes in the stratosphere in the higher latitudes, as we know, has produced a far more favorable environment for a negative AO/NAO environment.

If this continues to be a trend combined with a weak west based El Nino, let's just say we'll be making up lost time from last year's winter in a big way.

We won't feel the complete influence of these changes until the Fall and Winter.." http://www.nynjpaweather.com/

Fortunately my winter pattern archive wasn't so worthless after all... there was a visible change from January-February until now to replace low pressures with more frequent high pressures near northern Canada and Greenland. The PV has been significantly disrupted over the last 2 months, especially now with a temporary block building near northern Canada, another sign that the progressive, zonal pattern is falling apart.

With that part I agree with Steve D; as long as the pattern continues to evolve instead of returning back to where it was before, I don't see next winter having a similar pattern to the last one, and if a pattern similar to the current one persists, I'd expect to see at least some periods of blocking, regardless of whether it's persistent or not, by next winter. The question is what replaces the current pattern; perhaps blocking could become more frequent by next fall and winter, and depending on where the El Nino develops and its intensity, I would easily expect more snow than last winter. Probably not to the magnitude of 09-10, but still somewhat of a higher probability of snow ending up closer to average as opposed to well below.

A bit OT (off topic): Regarding my pattern archive, since I was asked about it before, it's still private (only on my computer) at this time, I'm still organizing it and adding to it since I have so many disorganized files, but eventually (maybe by next winter hopefully?) I hope to find some way to make parts of it published, although since it contains images from NCEP and RaleighWx I'd probably have to get approval before anything can be published. If you know of any way to combine a lot of pictures into a single animation I'd appreciate it if you could send me a PM.

[Niyologist]

The reason why I posted that earlier is because the evolution of the ENSO Pattern Evolution we're following is quite similar to 1956-1957. From 1956-1957, there were two consecutive La Ninas, which closely resemble 2011-2012.

The ENSO Pattern is very similar:
DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND
1956 -1.436 -1.3 -1.396 -1.156 -1.306 -1.516 -1.207 -1.14 -1.363 -1.463 -1.036 -1.014

1957 -.948 -.352 .152 .352 .915 .778 .945 1.128 1.183 1.098 1.133 1.231



2011 -1.678 -1.56 -1.559 -1.492 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968 -.98 -.979

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 Although, the PDO Evolution is quite different:


1956 -2.48 -2.74 -2.56 -2.17 -1.41 -1.70 -1.03 -1.16 -0.71 -2.30 -2.11 -1.28

1957 -1.82 -0.68 0.03 -0.58 0.57 1.76 0.72 0.51 1.59 1.50 -0.32 -0.55
2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79

2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05
The comparison between 1956-1957 and 2011-2012 is very intriguing in the ENSO department, but the PDO department takes a huge detour between the two. The only aspect of this subject that is similar for the PDO is that there are negatives for 1956 and 2011. I'll have to look deeper, perhaps solar wind and sunspots will give a helping hand in this subject.

PDO

ENSO

[NYCSuburbs]

The reason why I posted that earlier is because the evolution of the ENSO Pattern Evolution we're following is quite similar to 1956-1957. From 1956-1957, there were two consecutive La Ninas, which closely resemble 2011-2012.

The ENSO Pattern is very similar:
DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND
1956 -1.436 -1.3 -1.396 -1.156 -1.306 -1.516 -1.207 -1.14 -1.363 -1.463 -1.036 -1.014

1957 -.948 -.352 .152 .352 .915 .778 .945 1.128 1.183 1.098 1.133 1.231



2011 -1.678 -1.56 -1.559 -1.492 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968 -.98 -.979

2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 Although, the PDO Evolution is quite different:


1956 -2.48 -2.74 -2.56 -2.17 -1.41 -1.70 -1.03 -1.16 -0.71 -2.30 -2.11 -1.28

1957 -1.82 -0.68 0.03 -0.58 0.57 1.76 0.72 0.51 1.59 1.50 -0.32 -0.55
2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79

2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05
The comparison between 1956-1957 and 2011-2012 is very intriguing in the ENSO department, but the PDO department takes a huge detour between the two. The only aspect of this subject that is similar for the PDO is that there are negatives for 1956 and 2011. I'll have to look deeper, perhaps solar wind and sunspots will give a helping hand in this subject.

PDO

ENSO

Simply using an ENSO comparison is not nearly enough evidence to support a cold/snowy winter.