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> Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends
Spwild47
post Oct 22 2012, 11:49 PM
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It was more of a joke about alleged anthropogenic global warming than an attempt to put forth a new hypothesis on sea ice and polar bear survival.


QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 22 2012, 10:21 PM) *
And I'm supposed to believe there won't be significant melting by then which would prevent "polar bears from drowning"? Take a look at how recent years have had much lower sea ice during the summer. If next year follows the average of recent years, which I don't see why it shouldn't, there will be plenty of sea ice melting by the summer and into September.

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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 23 2012, 12:02 AM
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QUOTE(Spwild47 @ Oct 23 2012, 12:49 AM) *
It was more of a joke about alleged anthropogenic global warming than an attempt to put forth a new hypothesis on sea ice and polar bear survival.

I know you weren't talking about polar bear survival, which is why I put the quotation marks around it. This isn't the place for climate change discussion, it's for winter forecasting. Unfortunately, there's plenty of other forecasters out there that turn even the simplest aspect of weather forecasting into political and climate change rants and blur the line between weather and politics.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 23 2012, 12:03 AM
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Spwild47
post Oct 23 2012, 12:08 AM
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Friendly place..appreciate your hospitality.

QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 23 2012, 12:02 AM) *
I know you weren't talking about polar bear survival, which is why I put the quotation marks around it. This isn't the place for climate change discussion, it's for winter forecasting. Unfortunately, there's plenty of other forecasters out there that turn even the simplest aspect of weather forecasting into political and climate change rants and blur the line between weather and politics.

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Beck
post Oct 23 2012, 01:13 AM
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Australian Bureau of Meteorology updated their ENSO Wrap-Up this evening:

Pacific's late retreat to neutral considered unusual


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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jdrenken
post Oct 23 2012, 09:20 AM
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TWC NDJ forecast





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CrazyDon
post Oct 23 2012, 10:35 AM
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I like it! happy.gif
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ErieWx
post Oct 23 2012, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 23 2012, 09:20 AM) *
TWC NDJ forecast





The explanation for this was a little vague. Of course, to take heart...they were as wrong as the rest of us last year

I would be very hesitant releasing any long range forecast with the current data. IMO there are too many variables right now.

The only forecast that seems to be on course is NOAA which gives much of the country EC.

This post has been edited by ErieWx: Oct 23 2012, 11:04 AM
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grandpaboy
post Oct 23 2012, 02:44 PM
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QUOTE(ErieWx @ Oct 23 2012, 11:59 AM) *
The explanation for this was a little vague. Of course, to take heart...they were as wrong as the rest of us last year

I would be very hesitant releasing any long range forecast with the current data. IMO there are too many variables right now.

The only forecast that seems to be on course is NOAA which gives much of the country EC.


But does giving most of the country EC a cop out is the question.........can't deny the wounds are still fresh from last winter, but given EC to everyone is not really a forecast.....


--------------------
just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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RobB
post Oct 23 2012, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Oct 23 2012, 03:44 PM) *
But does giving most of the country EC a cop out is the question.........can't deny the wounds are still fresh from last winter, but given EC to everyone is not really a forecast.....


This is one thing I agree with JB on....An evil probability scheme it is smile.gif
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CrazyDon
post Oct 23 2012, 03:56 PM
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Is it evil or is it honest? It may have a lesser degree of accuracy, but it's valid. Nearly every attempt at a seasonal forecast goes out on some limbs to piece together a plausible scenario that could unfold, but the way the CPC sees it, you could roll some dice and come up with a forecast just as likely to pan out except in some rare cases where the pattern is driven by one major factor.

So far, most of the long range forecasts have been plausible but give me no reason to suspect they know anything more about the unfolding pattern than what I already know.

This post has been edited by CrazyDon: Oct 23 2012, 03:56 PM
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ErieWx
post Oct 23 2012, 04:29 PM
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QUOTE(CrazyDon @ Oct 23 2012, 03:56 PM) *
Is it evil or is it honest? It may have a lesser degree of accuracy, but it's valid. Nearly every attempt at a seasonal forecast goes out on some limbs to piece together a plausible scenario that could unfold, but the way the CPC sees it, you could roll some dice and come up with a forecast just as likely to pan out except in some rare cases where the pattern is driven by one major factor.

So far, most of the long range forecasts have been plausible but give me no reason to suspect they know anything more about the unfolding pattern than what I already know.



That's the thing. Every forecast this year has a scenario in which their perceptive can ring true if you have a bias toward either warm or cold. There are so many variables. I actually find NOAA's forecast refreshing, just being honest and saying..."who the heck knows!" is honorable. I can respect the view that it's percieved as a cop out, I just don't feel this way.

Time will tell, I'm waiting to see if we get a decent blocking pattern going. In my (very) humble opinion....we snow lovers have a lot riding on the NAO & Greenland this year with the lack of interference from ENSO. The nature of these are pretty variable as well.

It's a *bleep* shoot. Eh, It's all a part of the fun I guess. wink.gif
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MarylandChris8
post Oct 23 2012, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 23 2012, 10:20 AM) *
TWC NDJ forecast





Not at all surprised. According to the TWC, this winter "more closely resembles a La Nina winter". How is that possible after we just came to the end of a brief El Nino event and are currently are in ENSO-neutral conditions? I just can't take the TWC seriously anymore when it comes to actual weather, it seems they are more interested in making a business profit.
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RobB
post Oct 23 2012, 07:03 PM
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QUOTE(MarylandChris8 @ Oct 23 2012, 07:36 PM) *
Not at all surprised. According to the TWC, this winter "more closely resembles a La Nina winter". How is that possible after we just came to the end of a brief El Nino event and are currently are in ENSO-neutral conditions? I just can't take the TWC seriously anymore when it comes to actual weather, it seems they are more interested in making a business profit.



Bingo-Front Row (If I may borrow that from Bastardi). I agree....I have no problem with going with the money route except they do lose something in Met skillz it seems. Though I am and shall always be a fan of Jim Cantore...
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 23 2012, 07:00 PM
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Already seeing frequent blocking starting over the northern latitudes in North America - hopefully this is a signal that continues into the winter. If I remember correctly, November 2010 had blocking, especially late in the month, before the freezing December started.

Attached File  f0.gif ( 84.71K ) Number of downloads: 8
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RobB
post Oct 23 2012, 07:04 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 23 2012, 08:00 PM) *
Already seeing frequent blocking starting over the northern latitudes in North America - hopefully this is a signal that continues into the winter. If I remember correctly, November 2010 had blocking, especially late in the month, before the freezing December started.

Attached File  f0.gif ( 84.71K ) Number of downloads: 8


God bless amplitude smile.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 23 2012, 07:31 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Oct 23 2012, 08:04 PM) *
God bless amplitude smile.gif

If we saw this type of set up at any point last year in November or December, last winter would not have been close to what it actually was. This season so far seems favorable for high latitude blocking, certainly far more than last year, but then the question as always is where the blocking sets up.
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kpk33x
post Oct 24 2012, 03:29 PM
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Question - if Hurricane Sandy verifies at all on any track northeastward through MA/NE US and into the maritime provinces, would that not impact water temperatures and churn up some colder water than what would otherwise be anticipated and then affect winter forecasts? A "game changer"?

If it does verify, it looks like my winter could start Oct. 30 blink.gif


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Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

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6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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shaulov4
post Oct 24 2012, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Oct 24 2012, 04:29 PM) *
Question - if Hurricane Sandy verifies at all on any track northeastward through MA/NE US and into the maritime provinces, would that not impact water temperatures and churn up some colder water than what would otherwise be anticipated and then affect winter forecasts? A "game changer"?

If it does verify, it looks like my winter could start Oct. 30 blink.gif

If it does cool the water down Steve d will have to change his forecast from average to above average snowfall in the east coast. BTW Joe D from weather bell was mentioning that the El niņo might be reemerging.
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stuffradio
post Oct 24 2012, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Oct 24 2012, 02:16 PM) *
If it does cool the water down Steve d will have to change his forecast from average to above average snowfall in the east coast. BTW Joe D from weather bell was mentioning that the El niņo might be reemerging.

I think you mean Joe B.
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The Snowman
post Oct 24 2012, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Oct 24 2012, 04:16 PM) *
If it does cool the water down Steve d will have to change his forecast from average to above average snowfall in the east coast. BTW Joe D from weather bell was mentioning that the El niņo might be reemerging.

Really? Even someone as biased as him should have seen the latest ENSO update...



--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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