 Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts  |
 Dec 27 2011, 10:53 PM
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#41
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 7,689 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006  |
QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Dec 26 2011, 12:37 PM)  Figured that would happen. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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 Dec 27 2011, 10:58 PM
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#42
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,689 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(Snowstorms @ Dec 26 2011, 10:01 PM) Hmm, this Nina currently reminds me off the late 60's/mid 70's ENSO event and late 90's ENSO event. As an example this is what I mean; more recent in brackets. 69/70 (06-07): El Nino 70-72 (07-09): La Nina 72-73 (09-10): Strong El Nino 73-74 (10-11): Strong Nina 74-75 (11-12): Nina 75-76 (12-13): Strong Nina? Given the deeply negative PDO anomaly and La Nina enriched atmosphere lets see what happens 40% chance of a Nina. Which means a Strong La Nina is pretty unlikely. Lets also keep in mind that the Western Section of the ENSO is ear neutral and the CFS v1/2 are both showing signs of a weak West-Based El Nino, with CFS v2 being the warmest. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Dec 29 2011, 10:09 AM
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#43
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,461 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
I would be OK with a west Nino.
I've done a little research on it, so please correct me if i'm wrong on this. During a West-Based El Nino... •+PNA is favored •-AO is favored I haven't looked up the NAO but because the AO and NAO are so close I would hazard a guess that a -NAO is favored. And here I thought all Nino's were bad. -------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 3 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Dec 29 2011, 12:36 PM
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#44
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 503 Joined: 4-March 09 From: Powhatan, VA Member No.: 17,848 |
QUOTE(The Snowman @ Dec 29 2011, 10:09 AM) I would be OK with a west Nino. I've done a little research on it, so please correct me if i'm wrong on this. During a West-Based El Nino... •+PNA is favored •-AO is favored I haven't looked up the NAO but because the AO and NAO are so close I would hazard a guess that a -NAO is favored. And here I thought all Nino's were bad. For someone in Chicago that wouldnt be the most ideal setup for you unless you had an east-based -NAO. + PNA / - AO / - west or central based NAO = cold and dry for Chi-town since chances are you'd be in the middle of the trough. + PNA / - AO / - east based NAO = cold and potentially stormy as the east-based NAO would help drive storms up the Ohio Valley and not up the Eastern Seaboard. Either way... still a long ways out and of all the two year Nina events ( since 1900 ).... 40% became a three year Nina and 60% became El Nino the following winter. 60-40 ( especially since those odds are based on a n=10 ) arent what I would call definitive odds 
This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Dec 31 2011, 10:22 AM |
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| Removed_Member_weathertree4u_* |
Dec 31 2011, 06:22 AM
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#45
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Guests |
QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Dec 29 2011, 11:36 AM) For someone in Chicago that wouldnt be the most ideal setup for you unless you had an east-based -NAO. + PNA / - AO / - west or central based NAO = cold and dry for Chi-town since chances are you'd be in the middle of the trough. + PNA / - AO / - east based NAO = cold and potentially stormy as the east-based NAO would help drive storms up the Ohio Valley and not up the Eastern Seaboard. Either way... still a long ways out and of all the two year Nina events.... 40% became a three year Nina and 60% became El Nino the following winter. 60-40 ( especially since those odds are based on a n=10 ) arent what I would call definitive odds I dont know if I could take another Nina next year! |
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Dec 31 2011, 11:03 AM
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#46
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,461 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Dec 31 2011, 07:22 AM) I dont know if I could take another Nina next year! If there's a strong +NAO/+AO on December 1 next year, i will be pulling my hair out. 
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 3 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Dec 31 2011, 01:33 PM
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#47
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,944 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Denver, PA Member No.: 16,714 |
Something to look to in the coming winters as PDO has gone cold and AMO is / will be heading that direction.
Tweeted from JB: "PDO turned cold in 50s, amo in 60s. Similar cycle starting now. Look at last time it did this..50s thru 70s"
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Dec 31 2011, 01:36 PM
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#48
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,944 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Denver, PA Member No.: 16,714 |
More long term from JB.
"Not cyclical? You have to be blind.30-55, warm pdo 56-81 cold, 82-07 warm, then last 3 winters as pdo turns cold "
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 Dec 31 2011, 01:40 PM
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#49
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,689 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Dec 31 2011, 01:36 PM) More long term from JB. "Not cyclical? You have to be blind.30-55, warm pdo 56-81 cold, 82-07 warm, then last 3 winters as pdo turns cold " Looks like we in a calm winter before the upcoming winters are gonna put the hurtin' on energy bills and wallets. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Dec 31 2011, 01:48 PM
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#50
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
There are no guarantees that the AMO will switch to it's negative phase by next winter or any time soon necessarily. It could continue positive for quite a while yet if past history if to be repeated, but of course one never knows.
amophase.jpg ( 74.71K )
Number of downloads: 1 |
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Dec 31 2011, 02:33 PM
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#51
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,944 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Denver, PA Member No.: 16,714 |
QUOTE(Niyologist @ Dec 31 2011, 01:40 PM) Looks like we in a calm winter before the upcoming winters are gonna put the hurtin' on energy bills and wallets. Throw in low solar activity and if a volcano like Katla erupts you have the right ingredients for some serious cold. |
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Dec 31 2011, 02:35 PM
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#52
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,944 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Denver, PA Member No.: 16,714 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 31 2011, 01:48 PM) There are no guarantees that the AMO will switch to it's negative phase by next winter or any time soon necessarily. It could continue positive for quite a while yet if past history if to be repeated, but of course one never knows.
amophase.jpg ( 74.71K )
Number of downloads: 1Looks like AMO is heading downward. But as you said will it continue downward into a negative phase or spike again. Who knows? I guess anybody's guess. |
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Dec 31 2011, 04:14 PM
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#53
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Dec 31 2011, 02:35 PM) Looks like AMO is heading downward. But as you said will it continue downward into a negative phase or spike again. Who knows? I guess anybody's guess. Yes, it's impossible to say with any accuracy. Past cycles indicate that the warm phase could continue for perhaps another 10 years but then again the reliable dataset is so small that it may not be a reliable indicator. Even in a +AMO regime, brief bursts into negative territory are common. We'll have to wait and see. |
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Jan 15 2012, 02:20 PM
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#54
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 481 Joined: 21-January 08 From: Belle Harbor, Queens N.Y. 11694 (right across Marine Park Bridge) Member No.: 12,802 |
Although I haven't officially thrown in the towel on winter 11-12, I think it's time to start investing input into this thread! I think the european weeklies have been garbage in general so don't take it as gospel for the balance of this winter we are in. There has been lots of talk about how next winter will be the one for the ages. JB has been touting this for almost a year now. He believes an el nino will return in weak to moderate fashion. Looking ahead to 12-13 sure beats the dickens out of following this paltry winter, atleast until things flip (big if). Some of the more seasoned posters on this site should start to look into next winter in the near future!
-------------------- "FOR THE WINTER 2012-2013................all I can say for now.............Are we ready to rock n' roll?
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Jan 15 2012, 03:18 PM
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#55
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,689 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
Looks like the CFS v2 is going with a Weak Central-Based El Nino until October 2012. The warmest SSTs start to shift west from August 2012. That's a good start.
-------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Jan 15 2012, 08:17 PM
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#56
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,827 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
If I were to hazard a guess at the ENSO state for next winter I'd say:
40% neutral, weak warmth favoured over cold 30% El Nino 30% La Nina I weight a Nina as likely as a Nino based on the overall -PDO. |
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Jan 15 2012, 08:35 PM
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#57
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,121 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
-Lets do some more JB posts. He can't get individual storms correct, he can't get 30 dayer's correct, he can't get 30+ correct, so he's got the next 10+ years down correct? Stop drinkin the K-ade. If he doesn't hype, he doesn't exist.
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Jan 16 2012, 08:08 PM
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#58
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,098 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Chicken Capital,PA Member No.: 16,148 |
Zombie Apocalypse.
-------------------- Troll Mode engaged due to the explosion of the Philadelphia Flyers by their worthless management.
"The solar system is so humongous big... like net to shooters that face me in shootout." "We lose shootout and I get paid big money to do nothing but don't worry be happy" ~Ilya Bryzgalov |
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Jan 21 2012, 09:25 PM
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#59
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 143 Joined: 12-February 08 Member No.: 13,640 |
QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 15 2012, 08:35 PM) -Lets do some more JB posts. He can't get individual storms correct, he can't get 30 dayer's correct, he can't get 30+ correct, so he's got the next 10+ years down correct? Stop drinkin the K-ade. If he doesn't hype, he doesn't exist. Don't be a hater. |
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Jan 24 2012, 12:29 AM
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#60
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 15 2012, 08:35 PM) -Lets do some more JB posts. He can't get individual storms correct, he can't get 30 dayer's correct, he can't get 30+ correct, so he's got the next 10+ years down correct? Stop drinkin the K-ade. If he doesn't hype, he doesn't exist. Wow... 
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 19th May 2013 - 11:16 PM |