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> Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends
Beck
post Jul 1 2012, 12:47 AM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jun 30 2012, 10:39 PM) *
Or something that doesn't leave me with being tied for least amount of hours of sun in June since 1952. laugh.gif

Is that true for your area this month? Opposite down here - sunniest June I've ever observed (only three days featured any clouds whatsoever).


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Removed_Member_weathertree4u_*
post Jul 1 2012, 05:43 AM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Jul 1 2012, 12:47 AM) *
Is that true for your area this month? Opposite down here - sunniest June I've ever observed (only three days featured any clouds whatsoever).


Whatever the Winter turns out to be, it is hard to be worse than last year; I know we all want a Winter that makes up for the last one but I would be happy with simply an average Winter; those Winters that featured an average to maderate Nino gave Nashville pretty good seasonal snowfall totals, again, anything is better than last year!
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futureweatherman...
post Jul 1 2012, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Jun 30 2012, 11:38 PM) *
I don't think we should rely on that extreme of a forecast (E3).

E1 shows the El Nino just barely reaching moderate (1.0) at peak strength.

E2 shows a moderate El Nino along the lines of what we saw in 2002-2003.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but E3 is the newest member forecasts, while the E1 and E2 are previous, outdated forecasts


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Niyologist
post Jul 1 2012, 04:59 PM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ Jul 1 2012, 05:37 PM) *
Correct me if I'm wrong, but E3 is the newest member forecasts, while the E1 and E2 are previous, outdated forecasts


laugh.gif
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Beck
post Jul 1 2012, 06:32 PM
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QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Jul 1 2012, 03:43 AM) *
Whatever the Winter turns out to be, it is hard to be worse than last year; I know we all want a Winter that makes up for the last one but I would be happy with simply an average Winter; those Winters that featured an average to maderate Nino gave Nashville pretty good seasonal snowfall totals, again, anything is better than last year!

I agree. It's better to wait until September or October, when the models and we ourselves can get a better idea of what will really happen. Putting all your faith into forecasts this early on is jumping the gun. We'll have to be patient until then.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 1 2012, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jul 1 2012, 05:59 PM) *
laugh.gif

What's funny about that?
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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 1 2012, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Jul 1 2012, 06:43 AM) *
Whatever the Winter turns out to be, it is hard to be worse than last year; I know we all want a Winter that makes up for the last one but I would be happy with simply an average Winter; those Winters that featured an average to maderate Nino gave Nashville pretty good seasonal snowfall totals, again, anything is better than last year!

That by itself is a solid winter outlook... even having 2 snowstorms in Dec-Feb would automatically make it a better winter for the northern Mid Atlantic, which along with coastal parts of the Mid Atlantic had the least Dec-Feb number of snow events in the entire Mid Atlantic/Northeast region. I'm somewhat optimistic for chances to approach and maybe even pass average based on early indications, but it's way too early to get into specifics anyways.
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Niyologist
post Jul 2 2012, 12:32 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jul 1 2012, 08:16 PM) *
What's funny about that?


It's because he's right. It seems that no one bothers to look at the date of the updated data.
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Beck
post Jul 2 2012, 12:45 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jul 1 2012, 10:32 PM) *
It's because he's right. It seems that no one bothers to look at the date of the updated data.

It says they were all updated today, July 1st. Nothing has changed.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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VASnowstormHunte...
post Jul 2 2012, 05:42 AM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Jul 2 2012, 01:45 AM) *
It says they were all updated today, July 1st. Nothing has changed.


Dont look at the Update Date.... look right below it and you will see the Initial Conditions line.

As of July 1:

E1 data is based on data that originated from: June 1 to June 10
E2 data is based on data that originated from: June 11 to June 20
E3 data is based on data that originated from: June 21 to June 30

Therefore, E3 data is most recent and E1 data is most outdated. This is a rather moot point though because if you look across all three cuts of data you will begin to appreciate why the CFS is a terrible ENSO model since they all three show completely different outcomes.
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Beck
post Jul 2 2012, 10:06 AM
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QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Jul 2 2012, 03:42 AM) *
Dont look at the Update Date.... look right below it and you will see the Initial Conditions line.

As of July 1:

E1 data is based on data that originated from: June 1 to June 10
E2 data is based on data that originated from: June 11 to June 20
E3 data is based on data that originated from: June 21 to June 30

Therefore, E3 data is most recent and E1 data is most outdated. This is a rather moot point though because if you look across all three cuts of data you will begin to appreciate why the CFS is a terrible ENSO model since they all three show completely different outcomes.

Haha, I couldn't agree more laugh.gif


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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jdrenken
post Jul 2 2012, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jul 2 2012, 12:32 AM) *
It's because he's right. It seems that no one bothers to look at the date of the updated data.


The ability to overlook finer details hits us all. Did anyone laugh at your misguided post earlier?


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Niyologist
post Jul 2 2012, 11:08 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 2 2012, 09:49 PM) *
The ability to overlook finer details hits us all. Did anyone laugh at your misguided post earlier?


No.
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WinterStorm294
post Jul 3 2012, 03:25 PM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Jun 23 2012, 01:43 PM) *
There is nothing like spending time in the winter forum in June. It shows how much we all appreciate a cold snowy winter. By the way, winterstorm294, is your name referencing to Feb 1994. Just wondering because that was an awesome month from a cold and snow lover's point of view on the east coast in NYC. Not sure about Michigan though that year!


Sorry about the late response. No, it is not referencing to that. 294 is just my lucky number. wink.gif

On another note, here is the latest Scripps Model ENSO Forecast from this month (July):



Attached File(s)
Attached File  fcst_made_2012_07_for_2012_12.jpg ( 74K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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dab719
post Jul 3 2012, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(WinterStorm294 @ Jul 3 2012, 04:25 PM) *
Sorry about the late response. No, it is not referencing to that. 294 is just my lucky number. wink.gif

On another note, here is the latest Scripps Model ENSO Forecast from this month (July):


Looking like an east base el nino, NOT GOOD mad.gif
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stuffradio
post Jul 3 2012, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(dab719 @ Jul 3 2012, 02:48 PM) *
Looking like an east base el nino, NOT GOOD mad.gif

Wait until September/October to be more definitive.
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Hertz
post Jul 3 2012, 06:20 PM
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It's just one model, and its ENSO 3.4 (which is at least central region) anomalies are slightly higher for DJF this month than in June, FWIW.

Does Scripps or the model it's based on produce temperature forecasts?


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Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
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Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Beck
post Jul 3 2012, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(dab719 @ Jul 3 2012, 02:48 PM) *
Looking like an east base el nino, NOT GOOD mad.gif

Huh. The model I was looking at seems to like central-based more, but even I believe that's unlikely. Most central-based El Nino's I've ever seen were weak and only occurred during +PDO.

Attached File  glbSSTSeaInd5.gif ( 47.27K ) Number of downloads: 1


QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jul 3 2012, 03:00 PM) *
Wait until September/October to be more definitive.

Yeah. It seems that the models are only good for telling whether it will be La Nina or El Nino at this point, but the models fail at forecasting strength.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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The Snowman
post Jul 3 2012, 09:06 PM
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Does anyone know of a correlation between SH blocking and weather in the US? I say this because JB posted something on his twitter on how the June 2002/2009 conditions are so similar to now and how that signals a 'wild winter'.

I'm on my phone and can't find the exact tweet, but it has a picture of the anomalies.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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jdrenken
post Jul 3 2012, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 3 2012, 09:06 PM) *
Does anyone know of a correlation between SH blocking and weather in the US? I say this because JB posted something on his twitter on how the June 2002/2009 conditions are so similar to now and how that signals a 'wild winter'.

I'm on my phone and can't find the exact tweet, but it has a picture of the anomalies.


Throw me some of his other analogs and I'll verify...

Let's look at June 2010 positive AAO in the SH for your answer...
Attached File  compday_3.gif ( 13.11K ) Number of downloads: 1


We all know blocking the following winter of '10-'11...Not to mention multiple people tried to us the AAO for below normal temperatures last winter.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  compday_4.gif ( 13.89K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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