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> Long Range Winter 2012-2013 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends
NorEaster07
post Mar 2 2013, 07:29 AM
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Pieced together from http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/inde...n&region=US

Attached File  temps35.jpg ( 444.43K ) Number of downloads: 5


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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RobB
post Mar 2 2013, 08:47 AM
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Only a few more days left of posting the NAEFS and such smile.gif

0Z NAEFS and Day 8 to 10 500 millibar means:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 47.49K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  test8.gif ( 94.71K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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snowsux
post Mar 2 2013, 09:51 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 2 2013, 08:47 AM) *
Only a few more days left of posting the NAEFS and such smile.gif

0Z NAEFS and Day 8 to 10 500 millibar means:


Why? Winter doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.
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RobB
post Mar 2 2013, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2013, 09:51 AM) *
Why? Winter doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.


Oh it is not because I am saying the wintry weather is over, it is just once I get to March 10th, I am personally done posting the NAEFS and such unless the potential for a severe cold snap happens to be hinted at....
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snowsux
post Mar 2 2013, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 2 2013, 10:02 AM) *
Oh it is not because I am saying the wintry weather is over, it is just once I get to March 10th, I am personally done posting the NAEFS and such unless the potential for a severe cold snap happens to be hinted at....


According to JB the blocking is going to be strengthening and becoming more entrenched in the coming weeks, leading to one of the coldest Marches ever on the east coast.
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longislandwx
post Mar 2 2013, 10:39 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2013, 09:51 AM) *
Why? Winter doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.

Lol idk where you live but I will assure you that the march 6-8th storm will be the last shot at a winter storm till next year for many.


--------------------
LONG ISLAND !

Snow Events:

11/8: 0.50"
12/14: 1"
12/27: 16"
1/7: 2.5"
1/9: 0.5"
1/12: 15.8
1/18: 0.6"
1/21: 4"
1/24: 0.5"
1/25: 16.5"


Total snowfall: 57.9"

Ronkonkoma's total accumulated snow fall for 2009-2010 : 63.5 Inches.
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Doctor McGee
post Mar 2 2013, 12:22 PM
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Cousins, it is time to say farewell until next winter and to wish you all, in the meantime, three seasons of good times and dreams fulfilled. 44 inches of snow here during February salvaged this winter from a second straight embarrasment to something very close to normal. But to everything there is a season, and it's time to close the book on this one. Onward and upward, hasta la pasta, the ol' Docosaurus here, over and out ...
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 2 2013, 12:39 PM
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QUOTE(longislandwx @ Mar 2 2013, 10:39 AM) *
Lol idk where you live but I will assure you that the march 6-8th storm will be the last shot at a winter storm till next year for many.

agreed......this point in the year even SLIGHTLY BELOW normal temps are in the 40s still.....it would take MAJOR below anoms to make it actual "winter like"
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stuffradio
post Mar 2 2013, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 2 2013, 09:39 AM) *
agreed......this point in the year even SLIGHTLY BELOW normal temps are in the 40s still.....it would take MAJOR below anoms to make it actual "winter like"

I think that's the same here. Right now, the average high for my area is around 48 or 49 F. so I don't really flinch if I see 850 mb temps at -10C.
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NorEaster07
post Mar 2 2013, 05:51 PM
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I was shocked today. Was in New Fairfield, CT in NW CT and drove into an area with impressive snowpack..

Considering it hasnt snowed in 3 weeks PLUS had 4 rainstorms! and in the 40s a few times it was a bit surprising to see this.

It was 1000' up but still pretty shocking to see.


Attached File  172.jpg ( 1.43MB ) Number of downloads: 2



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 2 2013, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 28 2013, 04:11 PM) *
Honestly I can't wait until winter ends, really looking forward to sprig and summer... The pattern this season was definitely more interesting than last year, but in my experience this snow season was yet another disaster, barely better than last year. Just can't wait for whatever's left of the winter to end so I can enjoy the spring and summer, and I'm 9 months get a chance to start winter off with a fresh note.

I'm with ya burbs smile.gif
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thedarkestclouds
post Mar 2 2013, 07:36 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2013, 10:10 AM) *
According to JB the blocking is going to be strengthening and becoming more entrenched in the coming weeks, leading to one of the coldest Marches ever on the east coast.


I agree that March should end up below normal nationally (the extent of the negative departure will depend on what happens at the end of the month), but I'm not seeing any reason to believe that this will be among the five coldest on record. According to this site (and beware, it's an extremely addicting site), March would have to average 6.8 degrees below the 1981-2010 average in order for that to happen. And the east coast is probably the part of the country least likely to achieve that, especially New England.

On a related note, it looks like February was slightly below normal in the lower 48. If March is below normal too, it would be the first pair of back-to-back below normal months since February/March 2011 (using the 1981-2010 averages).

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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 2 2013, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(thedarkestclouds @ Mar 2 2013, 07:36 PM) *
I agree that March should end up below normal nationally (the extent of the negative departure will depend on what happens at the end of the month), but I'm not seeing any reason to believe that this will be among the five coldest on record. According to this site (and beware, it's an extremely addicting site), March would have to average 6.8 degrees below the 1981-2010 average in order for that to happen. And the east coast is probably the part of the country least likely to achieve that, especially New England.

On a related note, it looks like February was slightly below normal in the lower 48. If March is below normal too, it would be the first pair of back-to-back below normal months since February/March 2011 (using the 1981-2010 averages).

I find it hard to believe JB's cold outlook after how his outlook this year has gone (widespread -2 to -4 degrees colder than average in the East every month of the winter - Dec and Jan were the opposite, and Feb was close but not well below average). I don't think the weakening block next week is the last of the blocking we'll see this month, but I find it hard to believe we'll see such a frigid March as he's painting. The only cold pattern he's been right on so far was late Jan-mid Feb and he overestimated that one as well (comparing it to 1985, when that one was far more extreme).

I repeatedly said this fall that I was using this winter as the final test, and if he blows this winter's outlook it would be the final nail in the coffin for him for me... like it or not, he once again performed poorly this winter. Of course, he did happen to be right with the strong cold in late January and the early month blizzard, but when you call for so many huge cold outbreaks and big snowstorms, eventually you'll get one right.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Mar 2 2013, 07:56 PM
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MarylandChris8
post Mar 2 2013, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2013, 10:10 AM) *
According to JB the blocking is going to be strengthening and becoming more entrenched in the coming weeks, leading to one of the coldest Marches ever on the east coast.


What else would you expect from JB? I'm sure he's expecting one of the coldest springs ever too. And summers. And falls, And.... dry.gif
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NorEaster07
post Mar 2 2013, 09:11 PM
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Latest GFS shows a break in the troughiness after this week but then its back. Just a bit north more. And sure enough another storm which would be north more than the mid week storm this week.

lol ... Brrrr. blink.gif

Danbury, CT
CODE
                                            18Z MAR02   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    
SUN 18Z 17-MAR  -2.1    -8.0    1015      87      99    0.31     545     534    
MON 06Z 18-MAR  -4.8    -9.3    1005      93      89    0.57     529     525    
MON 18Z 18-MAR  -2.4   -12.0    1006      80      75    0.04     522     517


NYC

CODE
                                            18Z MAR02   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    
SUN 18Z 17-MAR  -0.1    -5.1    1012      89      99    0.46     547     538    
MON 06Z 18-MAR  -4.2    -8.0    1005      92      81    0.54     530     526    
MON 18Z 18-MAR  -1.5   -11.1    1008      80      74    0.03     524     518


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 2 2013, 09:12 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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bingobobbo
post Mar 2 2013, 10:07 PM
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I am in the early stages of grieving this frustrating winter. I am sometimes in denial (thinking there may be a big storm in store for us in the next seven weeks because we can get a big storm as late as April 22). I also feel anger because we have had some near-misses and we haven't had an eight-inch storm in almost exactly two years. There is also bargaining: if we can't have heavy snow, I'll take light snow. If we can't have any snow, I hope for either sunshine or mild weather. Unfortunately, we may be receiving none of the above: a long series of overcast, cold days with almost no snow.


--------------------
Binghamton--the home of the snow doughnut hole!
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bingobobbo
post Mar 2 2013, 10:11 PM
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QUOTE(MarylandChris8 @ Mar 2 2013, 09:01 PM) *
What else would you expect from JB? I'm sure he's expecting one of the coldest springs ever too. And summers. And falls, And.... dry.gif


LOl! This was an excellent skewering of Joe, though I used to enjoy him when he gave the weather summary on our local station. His cold bias is the ultimate professional wishcast.


--------------------
Binghamton--the home of the snow doughnut hole!
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OhioBlizzard
post Mar 3 2013, 12:57 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2013, 10:10 AM) *
According to JB the blocking is going to be strengthening and becoming more entrenched in the coming weeks, leading to one of the coldest Marches ever on the east coast.

Don't drink the kool aid wink.gif

QUOTE(longislandwx @ Mar 2 2013, 10:39 AM) *
Lol idk where you live but I will assure you that the march 6-8th storm will be the last shot at a winter storm till next year for many.

Yeah as we head into mid march, its normally I-80 and north for snowstorm possibilities, if not I-90

QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 2 2013, 07:55 PM) *
I repeatedly said this fall that I was using this winter as the final test, and if he blows this winter's outlook it would be the final nail in the coffin for him for me... like it or not, he once again performed poorly this winter. Of course, he did happen to be right with the strong cold in late January and the early month blizzard, but when you call for so many huge cold outbreaks and big snowstorms, eventually you'll get one right.

Exactly



--------------------
Average Seasonal Snowfall 92.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total Thus Far 95.7"
Significant Events:
November 11th-12th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 4.5"
November 23rd-27th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 8.5"
December 14th-15th Synoptic Snow 5.6"
December 30th-January 3rd Synoptic Snow 13.5"
January 25th Synoptic Snow (Clipper)/Lake Effect 9.8"
February 5th-6th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 4.4"
February 17th-18th Synoptic Snow 7.3"

Current Snow Depth- 0"

2012-2013 Winter Total 64.2"
2011-2012 Winter Total 56.0"
2010-2011 Winter Total 130.0" 'A Year To Remember'
2009-2010 Winter Total 91.1"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here!
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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OhioBlizzard
post Mar 3 2013, 01:02 AM
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QUOTE(MarylandChris8 @ Mar 2 2013, 09:01 PM) *
I'm sure he's expecting one of the coldest springs ever too. And summers. And falls, And.... dry.gif

+1



--------------------
Average Seasonal Snowfall 92.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total Thus Far 95.7"
Significant Events:
November 11th-12th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 4.5"
November 23rd-27th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 8.5"
December 14th-15th Synoptic Snow 5.6"
December 30th-January 3rd Synoptic Snow 13.5"
January 25th Synoptic Snow (Clipper)/Lake Effect 9.8"
February 5th-6th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 4.4"
February 17th-18th Synoptic Snow 7.3"

Current Snow Depth- 0"

2012-2013 Winter Total 64.2"
2011-2012 Winter Total 56.0"
2010-2011 Winter Total 130.0" 'A Year To Remember'
2009-2010 Winter Total 91.1"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here!
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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OhioBlizzard
post Mar 3 2013, 01:08 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Mar 2 2013, 10:11 PM) *
LOl! This was an excellent skewering of Joe, though I used to enjoy him when he gave the weather summary on our local station. His cold bias is the ultimate professional wishcast.

Unfortunately I think its more than just wishcasting. He's probably making some decent money from certain people/organizations for spreading all his cold rhetoric. So I certainly think he has his motives. But thats just my opinion.


--------------------
Average Seasonal Snowfall 92.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total Thus Far 95.7"
Significant Events:
November 11th-12th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 4.5"
November 23rd-27th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 8.5"
December 14th-15th Synoptic Snow 5.6"
December 30th-January 3rd Synoptic Snow 13.5"
January 25th Synoptic Snow (Clipper)/Lake Effect 9.8"
February 5th-6th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 4.4"
February 17th-18th Synoptic Snow 7.3"

Current Snow Depth- 0"

2012-2013 Winter Total 64.2"
2011-2012 Winter Total 56.0"
2010-2011 Winter Total 130.0" 'A Year To Remember'
2009-2010 Winter Total 91.1"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here!
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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