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> Long Range Fall 2011 Outlook, Forecasts and discussion
Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jun 13 2011, 04:36 PM
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Fall 2011 is fast approaching, so I have felt the need to start a new topic for the discussion of temperatures and what impact that tis will have on how our next winter will be affected by what will take place during this up coming fall season.


So feel free to post your forecasts on what you think will take place next fall.
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TheMaineMan
post Jun 22 2011, 04:58 PM
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My favorite season! At first glance into early fall (September) I'm thinking cool and dry conditions overall, but nothing extreme. After last year's (lack of) fall foliage due to dry weather, I'm hoping for a little more summer rain this year so that we can enjoy a more colorful canopy of autumn leaves in 2011.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jun 22 2011, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Jun 22 2011, 05:58 PM) *
My favorite season! At first glance into early fall (September) I'm thinking cool and dry conditions overall, but nothing extreme. After last year's (lack of) fall foliage due to dry weather, I'm hoping for a little more summer rain this year so that we can enjoy a more colorful canopy of autumn leaves in 2011.



The only thing that will make this fall better would be if the NFL will resolve its labor dispute!!!!
laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Jul 2 2011, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Jun 22 2011, 05:58 PM) *
My favorite season! At first glance into early fall (September) I'm thinking cool and dry conditions overall, but nothing extreme. After last year's (lack of) fall foliage due to dry weather, I'm hoping for a little more summer rain this year so that we can enjoy a more colorful canopy of autumn leaves in 2011.

Agreed, as we need some decent rains thruout the Summer season to add a spark into the fall foliage. Our "Foliage" was just OK down here in the Mid-Atlantic last year, however in years past it has been Brilliant and bursting with color following at least a minimum of (Average) rain fall thruout the Summer.
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Jul 16 2011, 10:07 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jul 2 2011, 03:43 PM) *
Agreed, as we need some decent rains thruout the Summer season to add a spark into the fall foliage. Our "Foliage" was just OK down here in the Mid-Atlantic last year, however in years past it has been Brilliant and bursting with color following at least a minimum of (Average) rain fall thruout the Summer.



Over here in the NYC area, we did not have that great of fall colors last year, but I am hoping that next year brings something better.
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justintime2989
post Jul 17 2011, 04:33 AM
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again feels like last summer hot and dry sad.gif, so hopefully coming up get more rain for better foilage.
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NorEaster07
post Jul 17 2011, 06:14 AM
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Yes, last year in CT colors weren't vibrant either but there were still reds, oranges around. We had a long duration drought and heat all summer last year.

Does anyone have any stats on a La Nina fall in NorthEast?

here's a pic during my hike on Mt. Bear in CT.

Attached File  100_1755.jpg ( 1.26MB ) Number of downloads: 5


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NewEnglander
post Jul 17 2011, 11:55 AM
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I was inactive for a very long time on this forum, but I want to get back into it. I had to get a new password and get my username again (thats how long I was away, I forgot my username biggrin.gif)

I have a question: Does anyone know what this fall could be like for southern New England?
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Fire/Rescue
post Jul 19 2011, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 17 2011, 07:14 AM) *
Yes, last year in CT colors weren't vibrant either but there were still reds, oranges around. We had a long duration drought and heat all summer last year.

Does anyone have any stats on a La Nina fall in NorthEast?

here's a pic during my hike on Mt. Bear in CT.

Attached File  100_1755.jpg ( 1.26MB ) Number of downloads: 5

Very photogenic picture and quite beautiful...thanks for sharing smile.gif
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TheMaineMan
post Jul 24 2011, 09:24 AM
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New England:

Bursts of cool weather late August and early September, then overall warmer and wetter than normal October through mid-December. Lots of post-tropical activity late October through early December.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Hertz
post Jul 24 2011, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Jul 24 2011, 10:24 AM) *
New England:

Bursts of cool weather late August and early September, then overall warmer and wetter than normal October through mid-December. Lots of post-tropical activity late October through early December.


For me in Cleveland - should I be west of at least the heart of the main warm surge up in the east?

How many deg F above/below normal would you estime for me by month from Aug-Nov?


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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hckyplayer8
post Jul 24 2011, 04:04 PM
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Attached File  590x497_07180250_falltmp.jpg ( 96.12K ) Number of downloads: 10


Attached File  590x497_07180251_fallpcp.jpg ( 101.2K ) Number of downloads: 6


--------------------
The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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stuffradio
post Jul 25 2011, 01:48 AM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Jul 24 2011, 02:04 PM) *
Attached File  590x497_07180250_falltmp.jpg ( 96.12K ) Number of downloads: 10


Attached File  590x497_07180251_fallpcp.jpg ( 101.2K ) Number of downloads: 6

When was that updated and where did you get it from? It looks like what Brett posted.
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TheMaineMan
post Jul 25 2011, 04:43 PM
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Shift those maps south and west and you've got my fall forecast.

Cleveland will be warmer than normal but not too bad... maybe 1 degree F?


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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hckyplayer8
post Jul 25 2011, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jul 25 2011, 01:48 AM) *
When was that updated and where did you get it from? It looks like what Brett posted.


It is in fact Mr. Anderson's Euro Monthlies maps. I got it off his blog. Think its the 3rd or 4th most recent post.


--------------------
The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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Hertz
post Jul 25 2011, 06:53 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Jul 25 2011, 05:43 PM) *
Shift those maps south and west and you've got my fall forecast.

Cleveland will be warmer than normal but not too bad... maybe 1 degree F?


As in +1F for the Sep/Oct/Nov combined departure?

That's not bad at all..I'd almost call it near normal. More just "leaning" on the warm side than actually warm. Certainly nothing that is going to reproduce anything resembling last week's miserable heat. smile.gif

If you don't mind going into a little further detail:

1) What would you see for Cleveland departures by month for Sep/Oct/Nov (is it each month around +1F, or will it be something like two months of +2F and one month of -2F, or something of that sort)?

2) What do you see for fall departures in New England and the East Coast (where you predict the core of the mildness to be)? Are they more, less, or about the same above normal as your predicted departures for my area?

If you could clarify that you mean the fall average here will be about 1F above normal in your opinion, that would be appreciated. smile.gif Again, the other questions are just if you don't mind going into a little further detail.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Jul 25 2011, 06:54 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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stuffradio
post Jul 25 2011, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Jul 25 2011, 02:49 PM) *
It is in fact Mr. Anderson's Euro Monthlies maps. I got it off his blog. Think its the 3rd or 4th most recent post.

Yeah, just wanted to see if it was what you were forecasting or if it was his forecast. smile.gif
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hckyplayer8
post Jul 25 2011, 10:16 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jul 25 2011, 09:59 PM) *
Yeah, just wanted to see if it was what you were forecasting or if it was his forecast. smile.gif


Nah. I usually post his version of the monthlies for fall-winter.


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The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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frankie989
post Jul 29 2011, 10:53 PM
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Fall 2011 in Nova Scotia will be Wetter than Normal and there will be a Hurricane and a Tropical Storm Threat in Nova Scotia around September and the rest of the fall and in the end of the September and Early October Nova Scotia will have a Extended Summer and once we reach the end of the October the weather starts turning Cold by Halloween and November will be Colder than Normal and the around the Middle of November it will be milder than normal and the End of the November in Nova Scotia it will be Colder and Snowier than Normal that is my Prediction for Fall 2011 outlook for Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland including Sydney Nova Scotia and Halifax Nova Scotia.

This post has been edited by frankie989: Jul 29 2011, 10:54 PM
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TheMaineMan
post Jul 30 2011, 09:35 AM
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I don't know the specifics to that detail... I'm just looking at natural signs and making general predictions.

I'm very concerned about fall foliage once again... this summer has turned out very dry so far, and if we don't get plenty of rain soon, it will be another bummer year for fall colors.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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