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> Long Range Fall 2011 Outlook, Forecasts and discussion
Niyologist
post Jul 30 2011, 09:30 AM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Jul 30 2011, 10:35 AM) *
I don't know the specifics to that detail... I'm just looking at natural signs and making general predictions.

I'm very concerned about fall foliage once again... this summer has turned out very dry so far, and if we don't get plenty of rain soon, it will be another bummer year for fall colors.


As long as we have a Tropical Cyclone or a rainy period from the -NAO next month, rain shouldn't be a problem. wink.gif


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Fire/Rescue
post Jul 30 2011, 09:45 AM
Post #22




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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jul 30 2011, 10:30 AM) *
As long as we have a Tropical Cyclone or a rainy period from the -NAO next month, rain shouldn't be a problem. wink.gif

True.....but were gonna need to get some appreciable RAIN here in the East soon, as we are beginning to run out of time. So bring on the rain (for MANY reasons) smile.gif
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NewEnglander
post Jul 30 2011, 10:57 AM
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For the year so far, I have 29.52 inches of rain. For July I have 1.98 inches and my July avg is 3.82 inches. Don;t know how much rain June had.

Is this going to be a bad or good foliage season for me?

And where can I find the stats for the other months?
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jdrenken
post Jul 30 2011, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jul 30 2011, 10:57 AM) *
For the year so far, I have 29.52 inches of rain. For July I have 1.98 inches and my July avg is 3.82 inches. Don;t know how much rain June had.

Is this going to be a bad or good foliage season for me?

And where can I find the stats for the other months?


Since you didn't place your location, the best I can tell you is to go to weather.gov, click on your area, click on the 'Climate' tab, and then select 'Monthly Weather Summary'. Locate the nearest city to you from their selections.
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NewEnglander
post Jul 30 2011, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 30 2011, 12:35 PM) *
Since you didn't place your location, the best I can tell you is to go to weather.gov, click on your area, click on the 'Climate' tab, and then select 'Monthly Weather Summary'. Locate the nearest city to you from their selections.


I live in Massachusetts. And I will look at that site. thanks.
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jdrenken
post Jul 30 2011, 12:06 PM
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jul 30 2011, 11:39 AM) *
I live in Massachusetts. And I will look at that site. thanks.


No problem! I also forgot about this website. The earlier suggestion I gave you is more specific though.

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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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NewEnglander
post Jul 30 2011, 01:20 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 30 2011, 01:06 PM) *
No problem! I also forgot about this website. The earlier suggestion I gave you is more specific though.


So will I have good fall foliage this year or not?
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TheMaineMan
post Aug 2 2011, 04:50 PM
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Fall foliage is largely a product of how much rain you get in the summer. How much rain have you had compared to average?

I'm not counting on great foliage up here in Maine unless the rain picks up soon. Last year's was terrible, but 2009 was great.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 3 2011, 09:25 AM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Aug 2 2011, 05:50 PM) *
Fall foliage is largely a product of how much rain you get in the summer. How much rain have you had compared to average?

I'm not counting on great foliage up here in Maine unless the rain picks up soon. Last year's was terrible, but 2009 was great.



The fall foliage near me should be decent, we have had an above normal amount of rain during the summer, but like you had said it will not be anywhere as good as it was back in 2009, also because summer 2009 was very cool and very wet in both my region, and in your region, and in fact, it was very cool and wet in the northeastern states on a whole.
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NorEaster07
post Aug 3 2011, 10:59 AM
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Excellent video from Steve NY-NJ-PA Weather, whom is very knowledgeable.
He discusses Negative NAO, Pattern, Troughs, and TS Emily.

His new Youtube Video today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2mO47KqW78

He's on facebook as well. http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/NY-NJ...131440866867584


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 3 2011, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 3 2011, 11:59 AM) *
Excellent video from Steve NY-NJ-PA Weather, whom is very knowledgeable.
He discusses Negative NAO, Pattern, Troughs, and TS Emily.

His new Youtube Video today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2mO47KqW78

He's on facebook as well. http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/NY-NJ...131440866867584



Do you know what he had said about the fall forecast?
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Hertz
post Aug 3 2011, 11:54 AM
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He doesn't give one directly but does say near the end he thinks "the worst of the heat is over" and "while there may be another Bermuda high/hottish period later in August, I think there'll be an overall cooling pattern as we head into September". (This may not be a direct quote, but it's to the same meaning of what I heard in the video.)


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 3 2011, 12:00 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ Aug 3 2011, 12:54 PM) *
He doesn't give one directly but does say near the end he thinks "the worst of the heat is over" and "while there may be another Bermuda high/hottish period later in August, I think there'll be an overall cooling pattern as we head into September". (This may not be a direct quote, but it's to the same meaning of what I heard in the video.)



I agree with him, I do not think that we will see any more 4+ days of 90+ degree heat in the northeastern United States, but we still will see some warm to hot days, because it is still summer, but I think that the fall will have normal to just slightly below normal temperatures, and I also think that the rainfall during fall will be at average to slightly above average, and I think the the northeast will see some good fall foliage this year, it will be much better that the no show with fall foliage that we had to go through last fall.
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Hertz
post Aug 3 2011, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 3 2011, 01:00 PM) *
I agree with him, I do not think that we will see any more 4+ days of 90+ degree heat in the northeastern United States, but we still will see some warm to hot days, because it is still summer, but I think that the fall will have normal to just slightly below normal temperatures, and I also think that the rainfall during fall will be at average to slightly above average, and I think the the northeast will see some good fall foliage this year, it will be much better that the no show with fall foliage that we had to go through last fall.


Can that general outlook apply to me here in Cleveland as well?, if so then I'll take it! smile.gif

July was nothing short of a torture chamber for me, even considering the argument that some areas suffered even worse.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Aug 3 2011, 12:08 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 3 2011, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ Aug 3 2011, 01:03 PM) *
Can that general outlook apply to me here in Cleveland as well?, if so then I'll take it! smile.gif

July was nothing short of a torture chamber for me, even considering the argument that some areas suffered even worse.


I am not sure for your area, I am assuming that it will be somewhat similar to what will occur in the northeastern states, it may be slightly cooler or slightly warmer, I just cannot tell.
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Hertz
post Aug 3 2011, 12:33 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 3 2011, 01:12 PM) *
I am not sure for your area, I am assuming that it will be somewhat similar to what will occur in the northeastern states, it may be slightly cooler or slightly warmer, I just cannot tell.


As long as you at least think it'll be similar (say within 2 degrees either direction for temp departures), then that's fine. smile.gif I partially imply a no from what you said, but to make sure, do you see any reason at this point to believe the difference will be of any greater magnitute (if there ends up being a difference at all)?

This post has been edited by Hertz: Aug 3 2011, 12:34 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 3 2011, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ Aug 3 2011, 01:33 PM) *
As long as you at least think it'll be similar (say within 2 degrees either direction for temp departures), then that's fine. smile.gif I partially imply a no from what you said, but to make sure, do you see any reason at this point to believe the difference will be of any greater magnitute (if there ends up being a difference at all)?



I still am not that sure, but I think that you are correct.
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Hertz
post Aug 3 2011, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 3 2011, 01:36 PM) *
I still am not that sure, but I think that you are correct.


Correct as in you think I most likely won't differentiate more than the specified amount (even if you're not sure)?

This post has been edited by Hertz: Aug 3 2011, 12:41 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 3 2011, 12:43 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ Aug 3 2011, 01:41 PM) *
Correct as in you think I most likely won't differentiate more than the specified amount (even if you're not sure)?



Yes, I do think that there will not be much of a temperature difference between our two regions.
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Aug 3 2011, 12:44 PM
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Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. smile.gif
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