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> Long Range Fall 2011 Outlook, Forecasts and discussion
NorEaster07
post Nov 13 2011, 09:32 AM
Post #241




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For Bridgeport, CT... First 12 days of November this year has an average high of 57 and an average low of 39.4
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx

I used the first 12 days of previous years and then added up and got the average for the 12 days of those years.

You can pretty much use this for a general warm/cool trend (not exact temps).
  • Looks like we are warmer this year than last year so far this month, especially the day highs.
  • 2010 barely made it past low 50s then a warm up mid November happened
  • Last year and first 12 days in November of 2007 was very similar
  • 2006 was the warmest with day highs mostly in the 60s.
  • 2007 trended much coldr by mid month with lows hitting near 30 a few times
  • The daily averages seemed to be near 40 degrees after the 8th day in 2007 This year averages are near 50.
Attached File  temps10.jpg ( 261.89K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Nov 13 2011, 09:34 AM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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CIWeather
post Nov 13 2011, 12:45 PM
Post #242




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FWIW, I have a chance for snow in my area on Day 15 of my AccuWx 15-day forecast.

AccuWx Extended Forecast


--------------------
2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12)
First Snowflakes: 11/26/12
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13
First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!!
First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings: 1
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1
First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12

2013 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks:
Moderate Risks:
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches:
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 13 2011, 08:07 PM
Post #243




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QUOTE(CIWeather @ Nov 13 2011, 12:45 PM) *
FWIW, I have a chance for snow in my area on Day 15 of my AccuWx 15-day forecast.

AccuWx Extended Forecast

lol...at least someone does biggrin.gif
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The Snowman
post Nov 14 2011, 07:32 AM
Post #244




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That's funny, my Accuweather Long Range shows snow at 38 degrees but rain at 33.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2013-2014 Winter
Total Snowfall: 67.5''
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Winter Storm Watches: 2 (1 Lake Effect)
Winter Storm Warnings: 7 (2 Lake Effect)


Annual Snowfall
2012-2013: 37''

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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jdrenken
post Nov 14 2011, 04:10 PM
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Per the 12Z GFS, look for winter weather flights to start up roughly around the 21st in the Pacific.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Nov 14 2011, 04:28 PM
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DT's outlook for sustained cold...or should I say no sustained cold at least until after December 1st.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Nov 15 2011, 10:37 AM
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Tom Skilling

Happy Tuesday all! Another gorgeous but WINDY day ahead with unseasonable warmth & 35 mph gusts whisking the dense morning fog which has formed in some west suburbs and across northern IN into MI away. But temps dive overnight as a shot of the coldest air of the season sweeps in off a mass of frigid air which has been building over western & north North America. Temps at the heart of this air mass failed to get above 0 yesterday from portions of Canada's Yukon & Nunavut and Northwest Territories west into interior Alaska. Morning lows were as cold as -33 in the northern Yukon! NOTHING like that's headed this way--but readings will dip into the 20s inland overnight and struggle into the low 40s Wed and to near 40 Thu--the coldest temps here in 7 months. Ahead of the chill, readings head into the 60s today (Tuesday)--a level more typical of mid October than mid-November! November is posting a near 5-degree surplus when compared to its long term average. Our climate guru Rich Koeneman ran stats for us yesterday on late season 60-deg-plus temps and it turns out we have an average of 3 to go--though as many as 13 60s occurred beyond Nov 14 in 1988. Warming's ahead later this week with another shot at 60 possible Saturday as a big autumn storm lifts out of Colorado toward Wisconsin, putting Chicago in its windy warm sector. Check out this 7-day plot of potential snowfall off our in-house MDA database. This forecast is driven by the Weather Service's GFS model. Looks like a snowy late week & early weekend ahead in parts of MN, northern WI & Michigan's UP!

http://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling

Attached File(s)
 


--------------------
Snow Storm
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10


Blizzard Warning
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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jdrenken
post Nov 15 2011, 02:25 PM
Post #248




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--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 15 2011, 03:51 PM
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via twitter

QUOTE
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
"GFS in la la land operational and ensembles days 10 on. Glaring feeback errors in changing pattern does it in. Euro ensembles on the mark"

"This week was a bust on the GFS from last week as model had NOv 16-23 above normal n plains to lakes from last week.. Canadian whipped it"


"This may change the rate of cooling feedback in mid/upper levels and US model cant handle that . Result is erratic run to run"

"Theory is linked to previous years before blocks formed, 400,600 mb temps stopped rapid cooling and reversed for awhile. Good test coming"


This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Nov 15 2011, 03:52 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 18 2011, 11:05 AM
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Was not completely sure of where to post this, so this thread was chosen wink.gif

Here is a little nugget from HM's blog this morning....didn't really want to here this news (but hey what can ya do right)

QUOTE
The GFS and Euro have backed off on the cold in two weeks. Not surprising to see the models are backing off. Just not time for the cold to come on down, despite that fact that a pool of cold weather is developing in Alaska. Eventually, the cold will come down, but not yet.

HM's Blog
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NorEaster07
post Nov 27 2011, 10:25 AM
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From Larry's Newsletter

QUOTE
The Madden-Julian Oscillation has made a large and unexpected change to Phase 1 status. Note Tropical Cyclone 5A near the southwest tip of India. This storm is expected to move north and threaten the coast of Pakistan in about 4 to 6 days. Most of southern Asia is under a warm and dry regime, with the bitter cold Arctic domain encompassing most of Russia and the Central Asian Republics.


Using all 3 sources for the current MJO and forecast Here's how it looks:

Source 1
Source 2
Source 3

Attached File  MJO10.jpg ( 198.3K ) Number of downloads: 3


When I asked Larry if that was a typo regarding going back into Phase 1 here's his response:

QUOTE
Not a typo. Look at the satellite depiction and not the diagrams, which are worthless. All of the convection is in the central Indian ocean!


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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andersonIN
post Nov 27 2011, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 27 2011, 10:25 AM) *
From Larry's Newsletter
Using all 3 sources for the current MJO and forecast Here's how it looks:

Source 1
Source 2
Source 3

Attached File  MJO10.jpg ( 198.3K ) Number of downloads: 3


When I asked Larry if that was a typo regarding going back into Phase 1 here's his response:

what does this mean?


--------------------
READY FOR WINTER and SNOWSNOWSNOW
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sw03181
post Nov 27 2011, 03:20 PM
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The 12z GFS is extremely cold in the long range once again, but the teleconnections say otherwise.

Baby steps...



--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
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snow wonder
post Nov 30 2011, 10:48 PM
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5th warmest November in Philly. 3.7 degrees above normal

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=phi

This post has been edited by snow wonder: Nov 30 2011, 10:54 PM
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