 Long Range Fall 2011 Outlook, Forecasts and discussion |
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 Nov 13 2011, 09:32 AM
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#241
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 8,457 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864  |
For Bridgeport, CT... First 12 days of November this year has an average high of 57 and an average low of 39.4
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx I used the first 12 days of previous years and then added up and got the average for the 12 days of those years. You can pretty much use this for a general warm/cool trend (not exact temps).
temps10.jpg ( 261.89K )
Number of downloads: 1This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Nov 13 2011, 09:34 AM -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Nov 13 2011, 12:45 PM
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#242
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,990 Joined: 29-January 11 Member No.: 25,272 |
FWIW, I have a chance for snow in my area on Day 15 of my AccuWx 15-day forecast.
AccuWx Extended Forecast -------------------- 2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics
First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12) First Snowflakes: 11/26/12 First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory) First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13 First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!! First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12 # of Winter Storm Watches: 1 # of Winter Storm Warnings: 1 # of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1 First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12 2013 Severe Weather Statistics First Risk of Severe Weather: Slight Risks: Moderate Risks: High Risks: Severe Thunderstorm Watches: Tornado Watches: Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: Tornado Warnings: April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL. |
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Nov 13 2011, 08:07 PM
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#243
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(CIWeather @ Nov 13 2011, 12:45 PM)  FWIW, I have a chance for snow in my area on Day 15 of my AccuWx 15-day forecast. AccuWx Extended Forecast lol...at least someone does 
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Nov 14 2011, 07:32 AM
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#244
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,479 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
That's funny, my Accuweather Long Range shows snow at 38 degrees but rain at 33.
-------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Nov 14 2011, 04:10 PM
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#245
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Per the 12Z GFS, look for winter weather flights to start up roughly around the 21st in the Pacific.
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Nov 14 2011, 04:28 PM
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#246
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
DT's outlook for sustained cold...or should I say no sustained cold at least until after December 1st.
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Nov 15 2011, 10:37 AM
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#247
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,146 Joined: 22-January 09 From: Paragon IN Member No.: 17,052 |
Tom Skilling
Happy Tuesday all! Another gorgeous but WINDY day ahead with unseasonable warmth & 35 mph gusts whisking the dense morning fog which has formed in some west suburbs and across northern IN into MI away. But temps dive overnight as a shot of the coldest air of the season sweeps in off a mass of frigid air which has been building over western & north North America. Temps at the heart of this air mass failed to get above 0 yesterday from portions of Canada's Yukon & Nunavut and Northwest Territories west into interior Alaska. Morning lows were as cold as -33 in the northern Yukon! NOTHING like that's headed this way--but readings will dip into the 20s inland overnight and struggle into the low 40s Wed and to near 40 Thu--the coldest temps here in 7 months. Ahead of the chill, readings head into the 60s today (Tuesday)--a level more typical of mid October than mid-November! November is posting a near 5-degree surplus when compared to its long term average. Our climate guru Rich Koeneman ran stats for us yesterday on late season 60-deg-plus temps and it turns out we have an average of 3 to go--though as many as 13 60s occurred beyond Nov 14 in 1988. Warming's ahead later this week with another shot at 60 possible Saturday as a big autumn storm lifts out of Colorado toward Wisconsin, putting Chicago in its windy warm sector. Check out this 7-day plot of potential snowfall off our in-house MDA database. This forecast is driven by the Weather Service's GFS model. Looks like a snowy late week & early weekend ahead in parts of MN, northern WI & Michigan's UP! http://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling
Attached File(s)
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Blizzard Warning 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 |
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Nov 15 2011, 02:25 PM
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#248
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
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Nov 15 2011, 03:51 PM
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#249
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,997 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
via twitter
QUOTE BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
"GFS in la la land operational and ensembles days 10 on. Glaring feeback errors in changing pattern does it in. Euro ensembles on the mark" "This week was a bust on the GFS from last week as model had NOv 16-23 above normal n plains to lakes from last week.. Canadian whipped it" "This may change the rate of cooling feedback in mid/upper levels and US model cant handle that . Result is erratic run to run" "Theory is linked to previous years before blocks formed, 400,600 mb temps stopped rapid cooling and reversed for awhile. Good test coming" This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Nov 15 2011, 03:52 PM |
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Nov 18 2011, 11:05 AM
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#250
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
Was not completely sure of where to post this, so this thread was chosen
 Here is a little nugget from HM's blog this morning....didn't really want to here this news (but hey what can ya do right) QUOTE The GFS and Euro have backed off on the cold in two weeks. Not surprising to see the models are backing off. Just not time for the cold to come on down, despite that fact that a pool of cold weather is developing in Alaska. Eventually, the cold will come down, but not yet. HM's Blog |
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Nov 27 2011, 10:25 AM
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#251
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,457 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
From Larry's Newsletter
QUOTE The Madden-Julian Oscillation has made a large and unexpected change to Phase 1 status. Note Tropical Cyclone 5A near the southwest tip of India. This storm is expected to move north and threaten the coast of Pakistan in about 4 to 6 days. Most of southern Asia is under a warm and dry regime, with the bitter cold Arctic domain encompassing most of Russia and the Central Asian Republics. Using all 3 sources for the current MJO and forecast Here's how it looks: Source 1 Source 2 Source 3
MJO10.jpg ( 198.3K )
Number of downloads: 3When I asked Larry if that was a typo regarding going back into Phase 1 here's his response: QUOTE Not a typo. Look at the satellite depiction and not the diagrams, which are worthless. All of the convection is in the central Indian ocean!
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Nov 27 2011, 02:05 PM
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#252
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 116 Joined: 7-May 10 From: west central INDIANA Member No.: 22,730 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 27 2011, 10:25 AM) From Larry's Newsletter Using all 3 sources for the current MJO and forecast Here's how it looks: Source 1 Source 2 Source 3
MJO10.jpg ( 198.3K )
Number of downloads: 3When I asked Larry if that was a typo regarding going back into Phase 1 here's his response: what does this mean? -------------------- READY FOR WINTER and SNOWSNOWSNOW
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Nov 27 2011, 03:20 PM
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#253
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
The 12z GFS is extremely cold in the long range once again, but the teleconnections say otherwise.
Baby steps... -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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Nov 30 2011, 10:48 PM
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#254
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,022 Joined: 22-November 09 From: Morton,PA Member No.: 19,819 |
5th warmest November in Philly. 3.7 degrees above normal
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=phi This post has been edited by snow wonder: Nov 30 2011, 10:54 PM |
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