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> Long Range Fall 2011 Outlook, Forecasts and discussion
Hertz
post Aug 3 2011, 12:47 PM
Post #41




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QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM) *
Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. smile.gif


Well given recent trends if the MA is cooler then so will I be cooler...bring it on...I agree!!


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 3 2011, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM) *
Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. smile.gif



I agree, but down where you are, it will be average, once you get north of I-78, it will be a cooler than average fall, but it will only be cooler by only about one degree, it will not be anything major.
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Fire/Rescue
post Aug 4 2011, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM) *
Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. smile.gif

Absolutely....a nice cool and crisp Autumn is wonderful smile.gif
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 4 2011, 12:07 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Aug 4 2011, 11:10 AM) *
Absolutely....a nice cool and crisp Autumn is wonderful smile.gif



Perhaps some snow by Thanksgiving Day?
laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Aug 4 2011, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 4 2011, 01:07 PM) *
Perhaps some snow by Thanksgiving Day?
laugh.gif laugh.gif

One can only hope right, but hey I do remember a few instances here IMBY with snow on the ground in years past for Thanksgiving....or atleast some Flurries floating around.
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 4 2011, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Aug 4 2011, 01:53 PM) *
One can only hope right, but hey I do remember a few instances here IMBY with snow on the ground in years past for Thanksgiving....or atleast some Flurries floating around.



Where I am, we have seen snow on Thanksgiving Day a few times, we had some snow showers last year, and that had accumulated to just a dusting, but there was a few years where we had received a few inches or more on Thanksgiving Day, I think that we had received 5+ inches in 1996.
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sw03181
post Aug 4 2011, 02:40 PM
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I wonder if we'll see an October snow in SNE like we did a few years back.

This post has been edited by sw03181: Aug 4 2011, 02:40 PM


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40“ ±/- 6"
# of SECS: 3
# of MECS: 1
# of HECS: 0
# of Ice storms: 0
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 4 2011, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Aug 4 2011, 03:40 PM) *
I wonder if we'll see an October snow in SNE like we did a few years back.



We had snow in early November last year.
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Niyologist
post Aug 4 2011, 03:30 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM) *
Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. smile.gif


With the -NAO becoming more persistent, it'll become cooler than average in September and much more rainfall than usual. That's when Nor'easter season may make an early visit.


--------------------
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SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6

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http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20


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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 4 2011, 03:35 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Aug 4 2011, 04:30 PM) *
With the -NAO becoming more persistent, it'll become cooler than average in September and much more rainfall than usual. That's when Nor'easter season may make an early visit.



I love it when we start to get Nor'easters, they are a sign that we are getting closes and closer to winter.
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Aug 4 2011, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Aug 4 2011, 04:30 PM) *
With the -NAO becoming more persistent, it'll become cooler than average in September and much more rainfall than usual. That's when Nor'easter season may make an early visit.


Oh buddy, I hope so! We havent had any serious Nor'Easters during the fall since 09.

I love how here, they usually start out mild and rainy and then by the time theyve lifted north of you, its freezing and windy. Its great. smile.gif
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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 4 2011, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 4 2011, 05:11 PM) *
Oh buddy, I hope so! We havent had any serious Nor'Easters during the fall since 09.

I love how here, they usually start out mild and rainy and then by the time theyve lifted north of you, its freezing and windy. Its great. smile.gif



I think that what you described happens everywhere when a Nor'easter hits!!!
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NorEaster07
post Aug 4 2011, 09:51 PM
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ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña

WatchENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...y/ensodisc.html


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Long Island Weat...
post Aug 5 2011, 11:44 AM
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Check this out from steve Stormy Cold Fall


--------------------
Long Island Weather
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Fire/Rescue
post Aug 5 2011, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 4 2011, 02:37 PM) *
Where I am, we have seen snow on Thanksgiving Day a few times, we had some snow showers last year, and that had accumulated to just a dusting, but there was a few years where we had received a few inches or more on Thanksgiving Day, I think that we had received 5+ inches in 1996.

That's very cool, I do somewhat remember a Thanksgiving day several years ago that some of my family couldn't make down to the Baltimore area from PA due to some nasty Ice and Snow on the roads.
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TheMaineMan
post Aug 5 2011, 04:51 PM
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In the 1990s we had a few white Thanksgivings... since then we haven't had any. Last year we did get a dusting on Black Friday, and early November 2009 we had 4 inches of snow that managed to stick for a day. November was the only month that year which actually achieved average snowfall. sad.gif


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Hertz
post Aug 5 2011, 06:42 PM
Post #57




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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Aug 5 2011, 05:51 PM) *
In the 1990s we had a few white Thanksgivings... since then we haven't had any. Last year we did get a dusting on Black Friday, and early November 2009 we had 4 inches of snow that managed to stick for a day. November was the only month that year which actually achieved average snowfall. sad.gif


IIRC - after the first week Nov 2009 was exceptionally mild, not only in your area but nearly nationwide. Then Dec-Feb was cold and snowy basically everywhere except part of New York and New England.


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Fire/Rescue
post Aug 6 2011, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Aug 5 2011, 05:51 PM) *
In the 1990s we had a few white Thanksgivings... since then we haven't had any. Last year we did get a dusting on Black Friday, and early November 2009 we had 4 inches of snow that managed to stick for a day. November was the only month that year which actually achieved average snowfall. sad.gif

Yea down here in my neck of the woods Snow on or around Thanksgiving is VERY uncommon, however on the rare occasion does suprise. Now to my immediate North and West (meaning N and W of the 95 corridor) where it's traditionally colder with some elevation thrown in as well.....Snow does occur a bit more on average once approaching the end of November. See here IMBY I am only 20 miles Northeast of Baltimore and reside on the "Coastal Plain" with an elevation of a mere 100' so my temps and precipitation are primarily the same as what the city (B-More) are experiencing.....but again just 10-20 miles N and W of here is a completely different world with elevations quickly approaching 400-800' wink.gif
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TheMaineMan
post Aug 7 2011, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ Aug 5 2011, 07:42 PM) *
IIRC - after the first week Nov 2009 was exceptionally mild, not only in your area but nearly nationwide. Then Dec-Feb was cold and snowy basically everywhere except part of New York and New England.


Yeah, I was really excited after seeing snow in October and early November... then all of the cold shots completely missed my region for the rest of the winter season.

Last year we had nothing in October and hardly anything in November... then we had a great winter. I guess you can't judge how the winter will be by the fall weather.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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stuffradio
post Aug 7 2011, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Aug 7 2011, 12:23 PM) *
Yeah, I was really excited after seeing snow in October and early November... then all of the cold shots completely missed my region for the rest of the winter season.

Last year we had nothing in October and hardly anything in November... then we had a great winter. I guess you can't judge how the winter will be by the fall weather.

I had the biggest cold shot in November last year. Couple weeks of temps getting to lows around -10 to -13 C.
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