 Long Range Fall 2011 Outlook, Forecasts and discussion |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts  |
 Aug 3 2011, 12:47 PM
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#41
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778  |
QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM)  Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn.  Well given recent trends if the MA is cooler then so will I be cooler...bring it on...I agree!! -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2012 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 4/30, 5/27, 7/1, 7/5, 7/26, 7/27, 9/7 Tornado watches: 2/29 (Svr Wx on Leap Day!) Tornado warnings: Slight Risk days: 2/29, 3/2 (stayed south), 3/12, 3/30, 4/16 (total bust), 4/30, 5/2 (busted), 5/4, 5/7 (didn't really pan out), 5/27, 6/18, 6/24 (busted and later removed), 6/28 (mostly busted), 7/1, 7/3-7/5, 7/7 (storms stayed just to SE), 7/18, 7/23 (bust), 7/25-7/27, 8/4 night, 8/9, 9/7 Moderate Risk days: Possibly 7/26, but it was mostly to my south/east. High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorms to date (from my house): Sandy was far more damaging than any thunderstorm. But probably something during July. Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): Think it's one of the wind guests from July |
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| Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_* |
Aug 3 2011, 12:47 PM
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#42
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM) Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. I agree, but down where you are, it will be average, once you get north of I-78, it will be a cooler than average fall, but it will only be cooler by only about one degree, it will not be anything major. |
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Aug 4 2011, 10:10 AM
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#43
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM) Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. Absolutely....a nice cool and crisp Autumn is wonderful
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| Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_* |
Aug 4 2011, 12:07 PM
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#44
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Aug 4 2011, 11:10 AM) Absolutely....a nice cool and crisp Autumn is wonderful Perhaps some snow by Thanksgiving Day? 
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Aug 4 2011, 12:53 PM
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#45
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 4 2011, 01:07 PM) Perhaps some snow by Thanksgiving Day? One can only hope right, but hey I do remember a few instances here IMBY with snow on the ground in years past for Thanksgiving....or atleast some Flurries floating around. |
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| Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_* |
Aug 4 2011, 01:37 PM
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#46
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Aug 4 2011, 01:53 PM) One can only hope right, but hey I do remember a few instances here IMBY with snow on the ground in years past for Thanksgiving....or atleast some Flurries floating around. Where I am, we have seen snow on Thanksgiving Day a few times, we had some snow showers last year, and that had accumulated to just a dusting, but there was a few years where we had received a few inches or more on Thanksgiving Day, I think that we had received 5+ inches in 1996. |
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Aug 4 2011, 02:40 PM
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#47
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,921 Joined: 7-December 08 From: South Windsor, CT Member No.: 16,373 |
I wonder if we'll see an October snow in SNE like we did a few years back.
This post has been edited by sw03181: Aug 4 2011, 02:40 PM -------------------- Rob
Member of the 30" Club 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5" 2012-2013 Winter Wx predictions: Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 39.5" 50+ Degree Days since Dec. 1: 10 Winter Wx. Events: 11/7-11/9: 7" 11/27-11/29: T 11/30: T (flurries) 12/22: T (lake-effect) 12/24: 1" (clipper) 12/27: 5" (turned to slop) 12/29-12/30: 10" (resulted in 2 week snowpack) 1/16: 4" 1/21:T (norlun) 1/25-1/26: T 1/28: 2" 2/1-2/3:T 2/5: T 2013 North American Blizzard: 32" (all-time record) 2/13: T 2/16: 2" Various T events up to 3/2: .5" 3/6-3/8: 17" 3/18-3/19: 4.5" 10/29/11, 10/29/12, and 2/8-9/13: Never forget |
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| Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_* |
Aug 4 2011, 03:29 PM
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#48
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Aug 4 2011, 03:40 PM) I wonder if we'll see an October snow in SNE like we did a few years back. We had snow in early November last year. |
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Aug 4 2011, 03:30 PM
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#49
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,690 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 3 2011, 01:44 PM) Wow, well for the Mid-Atl I certainly hope his predictions about the cooler fall-like regime for September are right. Thatd be a great way to kick off Autumn. With the -NAO becoming more persistent, it'll become cooler than average in September and much more rainfall than usual. That's when Nor'easter season may make an early visit. -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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| Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_* |
Aug 4 2011, 03:35 PM
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#50
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Aug 4 2011, 04:30 PM) With the -NAO becoming more persistent, it'll become cooler than average in September and much more rainfall than usual. That's when Nor'easter season may make an early visit. I love it when we start to get Nor'easters, they are a sign that we are getting closes and closer to winter. |
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| Removed_Member_Garrett_* |
Aug 4 2011, 04:11 PM
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#51
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Aug 4 2011, 04:30 PM) With the -NAO becoming more persistent, it'll become cooler than average in September and much more rainfall than usual. That's when Nor'easter season may make an early visit. Oh buddy, I hope so! We havent had any serious Nor'Easters during the fall since 09. I love how here, they usually start out mild and rainy and then by the time theyve lifted north of you, its freezing and windy. Its great.
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| Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_* |
Aug 4 2011, 04:14 PM
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#52
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Aug 4 2011, 05:11 PM) Oh buddy, I hope so! We havent had any serious Nor'Easters during the fall since 09. I love how here, they usually start out mild and rainy and then by the time theyve lifted north of you, its freezing and windy. Its great. I think that what you described happens everywhere when a Nor'easter hits!!! |
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Aug 4 2011, 09:51 PM
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#53
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,443 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niņa
WatchENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niņa equally likely thereafter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...y/ensodisc.html -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Aug 5 2011, 11:44 AM
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#54
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 116 Joined: 4-February 10 Member No.: 21,379 |
Check this out from steve Stormy Cold Fall
-------------------- Long Island Weather |
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Aug 5 2011, 03:15 PM
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#55
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 4 2011, 02:37 PM) Where I am, we have seen snow on Thanksgiving Day a few times, we had some snow showers last year, and that had accumulated to just a dusting, but there was a few years where we had received a few inches or more on Thanksgiving Day, I think that we had received 5+ inches in 1996. That's very cool, I do somewhat remember a Thanksgiving day several years ago that some of my family couldn't make down to the Baltimore area from PA due to some nasty Ice and Snow on the roads. |
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Aug 5 2011, 04:51 PM
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#56
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,141 Joined: 12-March 10 Member No.: 22,300 |
In the 1990s we had a few white Thanksgivings... since then we haven't had any. Last year we did get a dusting on Black Friday, and early November 2009 we had 4 inches of snow that managed to stick for a day. November was the only month that year which actually achieved average snowfall.
-------------------- Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches 2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches 2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches 2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches 2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches 2012-2013 snowfall so far: 78 inches Coldest temp of 2012-2013 winter so far: -8 F Winter 2012/2013: First frost: September 20 First freeze: October 8 First snowflakes in sky: November 8 First measurable snow: November 8 (2 inches) Total snowfall 2012-2013 season: October: None November: 2 inches December: 20 inches January: 12 inches February: 42 inches March: 2 inches |
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Aug 5 2011, 06:42 PM
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#57
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778 |
QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Aug 5 2011, 05:51 PM) In the 1990s we had a few white Thanksgivings... since then we haven't had any. Last year we did get a dusting on Black Friday, and early November 2009 we had 4 inches of snow that managed to stick for a day. November was the only month that year which actually achieved average snowfall. IIRC - after the first week Nov 2009 was exceptionally mild, not only in your area but nearly nationwide. Then Dec-Feb was cold and snowy basically everywhere except part of New York and New England. -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2012 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 4/30, 5/27, 7/1, 7/5, 7/26, 7/27, 9/7 Tornado watches: 2/29 (Svr Wx on Leap Day!) Tornado warnings: Slight Risk days: 2/29, 3/2 (stayed south), 3/12, 3/30, 4/16 (total bust), 4/30, 5/2 (busted), 5/4, 5/7 (didn't really pan out), 5/27, 6/18, 6/24 (busted and later removed), 6/28 (mostly busted), 7/1, 7/3-7/5, 7/7 (storms stayed just to SE), 7/18, 7/23 (bust), 7/25-7/27, 8/4 night, 8/9, 9/7 Moderate Risk days: Possibly 7/26, but it was mostly to my south/east. High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorms to date (from my house): Sandy was far more damaging than any thunderstorm. But probably something during July. Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): Think it's one of the wind guests from July |
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Aug 6 2011, 09:13 AM
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#58
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,417 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Aug 5 2011, 05:51 PM) In the 1990s we had a few white Thanksgivings... since then we haven't had any. Last year we did get a dusting on Black Friday, and early November 2009 we had 4 inches of snow that managed to stick for a day. November was the only month that year which actually achieved average snowfall. Yea down here in my neck of the woods Snow on or around Thanksgiving is VERY uncommon, however on the rare occasion does suprise. Now to my immediate North and West (meaning N and W of the 95 corridor) where it's traditionally colder with some elevation thrown in as well.....Snow does occur a bit more on average once approaching the end of November. See here IMBY I am only 20 miles Northeast of Baltimore and reside on the "Coastal Plain" with an elevation of a mere 100' so my temps and precipitation are primarily the same as what the city (B-More) are experiencing.....but again just 10-20 miles N and W of here is a completely different world with elevations quickly approaching 400-800' 
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Aug 7 2011, 02:23 PM
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#59
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,141 Joined: 12-March 10 Member No.: 22,300 |
QUOTE(Hertz @ Aug 5 2011, 07:42 PM) IIRC - after the first week Nov 2009 was exceptionally mild, not only in your area but nearly nationwide. Then Dec-Feb was cold and snowy basically everywhere except part of New York and New England. Yeah, I was really excited after seeing snow in October and early November... then all of the cold shots completely missed my region for the rest of the winter season. Last year we had nothing in October and hardly anything in November... then we had a great winter. I guess you can't judge how the winter will be by the fall weather. -------------------- Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches 2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches 2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches 2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches 2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches 2012-2013 snowfall so far: 78 inches Coldest temp of 2012-2013 winter so far: -8 F Winter 2012/2013: First frost: September 20 First freeze: October 8 First snowflakes in sky: November 8 First measurable snow: November 8 (2 inches) Total snowfall 2012-2013 season: October: None November: 2 inches December: 20 inches January: 12 inches February: 42 inches March: 2 inches |
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Aug 7 2011, 02:19 PM
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#60
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 828 Joined: 12-September 08 From: SW BC, Canada Member No.: 15,716 |
QUOTE(TheMaineMan @ Aug 7 2011, 12:23 PM) Yeah, I was really excited after seeing snow in October and early November... then all of the cold shots completely missed my region for the rest of the winter season. Last year we had nothing in October and hardly anything in November... then we had a great winter. I guess you can't judge how the winter will be by the fall weather. I had the biggest cold shot in November last year. Couple weeks of temps getting to lows around -10 to -13 C. |
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