Eastern Pacific Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, ITCZ, LPs Options

[Phased Vort]

Letīs use this thread to discuss possible formation of invests over the eastern Pacific ocean.

[Phased Vort]

By early to the middle of next week, tropical cyclone letter B, should be churning just off the coast of southern Mexico. Therefore, invest 92E, should be activated some time late this week or during the upcoming weekend.

[NYCSuburbs]

By early to the middle of next week, tropical cyclone letter B, should be churning just off the coast of southern Mexico. Therefore, invest 92E, should be activated some time late this week or during the upcoming weekend.

Is this the storm you are talking about? It only showed up very recently on the NHC page.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCATIONWITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TOTHE SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AREFORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_epac_sub.shtml?area1#contents">Source

[Phased Vort]

Is this the storm you are talking about? It only showed up very recently on the NHC page.


<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_epac_sub.shtml?area1#contents">Source

Yes. Thatīs it.

Invest activation should occur in 2 days or so.

[MAC292OH10]

Yes. Thatīs it.

Invest activation should occur in 2 days or so.

yup, where there is smoke there is fire...lol

00Z 6/14 @144hr


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 14 2011, 03:52 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

We're slowly getting somewhere... up to 20% now:

1. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRALAMERICA WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ALARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS A TROPICAL WAVENEAR CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THIS AREA OF DISTURBEDWEATHER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICALCYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Source

[NYCSuburbs]

Yes. Thatīs it.

Invest activation should occur in 2 days or so.

Good call! Invest 92 has been activated. NHC now has it at 40% chance of development.

[Phased Vort]

Good call! Invest 92 has been activated. NHC now has it at 40% chance of development.

Thanks!

Next step is to get a tropical cyclone by Sunday, meaniing a TD and then early in the week tropical storm B.


Itīs an 80% chance of it happening for sure.

[Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*]

This is for the wave that just came off of the Mexican coast, the NHC gives it a 10% chance of developing:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[The Snowman]

Here's a nice piece to the puzzle.
12z ECMWF (TS Emily winner) at hour 240.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[NYCSuburbs]

Interestingly, we haven't seen any activity in the East Pacific since Greg almost a month ago, and there seems to be no sign of any activity in the near future... Last year's last storm, Georgette, formed on September 20. Although I'm not sure how likely it is that we do not see another named storm this year, if we do not see additional named storms in the East Pacific, this year will tie last year for record low named storms.

[idecline]

A tropical wave seem to be stalling over Guatemala...with an apparent spin on the WV loop...perhaps if it can push West across the land before dissipating it may be revived and be of some interest in the E. Pac.
But otherwise there are no potentially active areas in the E. Pacific right now....I wonder if this will continue the rest of the season...as the Atlantic still seems to have more chances for storms this year...