Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Eastern Pacific Tropical Development 2011, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, ITCZ, LPs
Phased Vort
post Jun 13 2011, 08:47 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





Letīs use this thread to discuss possible formation of invests over the eastern Pacific ocean.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Jun 13 2011, 08:51 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





By early to the middle of next week, tropical cyclone letter B, should be churning just off the coast of southern Mexico. Therefore, invest 92E, should be activated some time late this week or during the upcoming weekend.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Jun 14 2011, 01:12 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,037
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Northeast NJ (for Thanksgiving)
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 13 2011, 09:51 PM) *
By early to the middle of next week, tropical cyclone letter B, should be churning just off the coast of southern Mexico. Therefore, invest 92E, should be activated some time late this week or during the upcoming weekend.

Is this the storm you are talking about? It only showed up very recently on the NHC page.

Attached Image

QUOTE
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCATIONWITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TOTHE SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AREFORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.


<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_epac_sub.shtml?area1#contents">Source


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Jun 14 2011, 03:23 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jun 14 2011, 01:12 PM) *
Is this the storm you are talking about? It only showed up very recently on the NHC page.

Attached Image
<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_epac_sub.shtml?area1#contents">Source



Yes. Thatīs it.

Invest activation should occur in 2 days or so.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MAC292OH10
post Jun 14 2011, 03:44 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,071
Joined: 27-January 08
From: Buckeye Lake ,OH
Member No.: 13,231





QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 14 2011, 04:23 PM) *
Yes. Thatīs it.

Invest activation should occur in 2 days or so.


yup, where there is smoke there is fire...lol

00Z 6/14 @144hr


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 14 2011, 03:52 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Jun 15 2011, 09:20 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,037
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Northeast NJ (for Thanksgiving)
Member No.: 15,491





We're slowly getting somewhere... up to 20% now:

QUOTE
1. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRALAMERICA WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ALARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS A TROPICAL WAVENEAR CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THIS AREA OF DISTURBEDWEATHER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICALCYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Source

Attached Image


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Jun 16 2011, 05:55 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,037
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Northeast NJ (for Thanksgiving)
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 14 2011, 04:23 PM) *
Yes. Thatīs it.

Invest activation should occur in 2 days or so.

Good call! Invest 92 has been activated. NHC now has it at 40% chance of development.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Jun 16 2011, 06:37 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jun 16 2011, 05:55 PM) *
Good call! Invest 92 has been activated. NHC now has it at 40% chance of development.




Thanks!

Next step is to get a tropical cyclone by Sunday, meaniing a TD and then early in the week tropical storm B.


Itīs an 80% chance of it happening for sure.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 4 2011, 03:49 PM
Post #9







Guests








This is for the wave that just came off of the Mexican coast, the NHC gives it a 10% chance of developing:



QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Aug 11 2011, 08:03 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,143
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Here's a nice piece to the puzzle.
12z ECMWF (TS Emily winner) at hour 240.

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Sep 11 2011, 03:58 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,037
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Northeast NJ (for Thanksgiving)
Member No.: 15,491





Interestingly, we haven't seen any activity in the East Pacific since Greg almost a month ago, and there seems to be no sign of any activity in the near future... Last year's last storm, Georgette, formed on September 20. Although I'm not sure how likely it is that we do not see another named storm this year, if we do not see additional named storms in the East Pacific, this year will tie last year for record low named storms.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Sep 13 2011, 02:58 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,427
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





A tropical wave seem to be stalling over Guatemala...with an apparent spin on the WV loop...perhaps if it can push West across the land before dissipating it may be revived and be of some interest in the E. Pac.
But otherwise there are no potentially active areas in the E. Pacific right now....I wonder if this will continue the rest of the season...as the Atlantic still seems to have more chances for storms this year...

Attached Image


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 27th November 2014 - 07:05 PM