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> June 19-24th Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS
SEMIweather
post Jun 14 2011, 12:17 PM
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Then this is two systems out...and this looks like it could be a doozy if it ends up as strong as the GFS and Euro are suggesting.


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WolfSpider
post Jun 15 2011, 01:59 PM
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Attached Image

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150858
SPC AC 150858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL INTO NRN PLAINS ON DAY 4 /SAT JUN 18/. HOWEVER...GREATER
AGREEMENT EXISTS ON DAY 5 FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION ON DAY 4 TO TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON DAY 5 /SUN JUN 19/.
MODERATE-VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 2000-4000 J PER KG/ IS
EXPECTED FROM ERN NEB/IA TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN...WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50 KT AS A 50+ KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET REACHES
NEB TO MN BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT...THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY TO ERN DAKOTAS/MN.

BEYOND DAY 5...THE 15/00Z GFS INDICATES A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE UPPER MS TO LOWER MO VALLEYS ON DAY 6 /MON JUN 20/...
WHILE THE 15/00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS SAME REGION AND SWWD INTO ERN
KS TO OK FOR DAY 7 /TUE JUN 21/. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WITH THE ENEWD EJECTION OF THE WRN TROUGH INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES...A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 06/15/2011


This post has been edited by WolfSpider: Jun 15 2011, 02:00 PM


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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 16 2011, 01:07 AM
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QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes
SUNDAY
Severe thunderstorms in west and south ND, north and east SD, south MN,
north and east-central IA, north IL, south WI, south MI, north and central
IN, OH (except northeast), WV, northeast KY. Isolated severe thunderstorms
in east half NE, central KS, southwest IA. A lower chance of an isolated
severe thunderstorm in southwest PA, MD, north VA, DE.


QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes
MONDAY
Severe thunderstorms in WI, IA, east half KS, central and east NE, south
MN, spreading overnight across MO, central and east OK. Has the potential
to be a significant severe outbreak.

Source


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jdrenken
post Jun 16 2011, 06:39 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON DAY 4...THE 16/00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OH
VALLEY. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO MIDLEVEL
IMPULSES TRANSLATING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM W-E IS UNCERTAIN AND
PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.

BEYOND DAY 4...THE 16/00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
OUTLOOK FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS.
THE DIFFERENCE REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
PARENT WRN TROUGH PROGRESSING ENEWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
UPPER MS VALLEY BEING AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIALLY ON DAY
5 /MON JUN 20/...OR ON DAY 6 /TUE JUN 21/ IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.

..PETERS.. 06/16/2011


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 16 2011, 09:21 AM
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ILX mentions the potential Wed. the 22nd with the cold front passage
QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
652 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF CENTRAL IL TO KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY MON WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO IL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF PEORIA MONDAY. THEN SPREAD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL TUE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SE IL WILL LIKELY STAY DRY YET ON TUE AND HOT. 00Z ECMWF MODEL
STILL TRENDING DRIER YET OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL TUE AS IT IS SLOWER
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND
BRINGING QPF INTO IL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND WED. COULD BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT INTO HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS.

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jdrenken
post Jun 16 2011, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
751 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

VALID 12Z MON JUN 20 2011 - 12Z THU JUN 23 2011

CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW COMING INTO THE GLFAK WILL PUSH A
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE 00Z GFS
FOR A COUPLE DAYS GETS AHEAD OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET SOLUTIONS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER GUIDANCE LIES ON THE SLOW
SIDE OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE.
THIS ONCE AGAIN LED TO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. EARLY
ON...A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS WAS USED. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...STARTED WITH A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
SOLUTION FOR THE PRESSURES. FROM THIS INITIAL TEMPLATE...CHANGES
WERE MADE TO CONFORM BETTER WITH ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING TO LEAD
TO MORE REALISTIC CYCLONE PROGRESSION. THIS LED TO GOOD
CONTINUITY...AS THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING WITH THIS LOW HAS BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY WITH NO REAL SLOWING/QUICKENING
TREND APPARENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THIS FLOW PATTERN LEADS TO A PERSISTENT GULF COAST RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION HOT AND DRY. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING JUST EAST
OF FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP THE PENINSULA DRIER THAN NORMAL...BUT WHAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES FORM COULD BE STRONG AND ORGANIZED.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WARM
FRONT PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHEAST
KEEPS CHANGING DAY TO DAY...BUT FOR TIME BEING...THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED A BIT TOO WARM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID NEXT
WEEK AS ITS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 60 METERS TOO
HIGH.


--------------------
QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

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MDH
post Jun 16 2011, 09:23 PM
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Ahhhhhh! This all looks so great, but what a deadly cap!



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snowlover2
post Jun 17 2011, 01:11 AM
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New day 2 - Western Plains threat only here.
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF OK/KS EWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NWWD INTO THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH OVER MOST OF
THE WRN/CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER TOUGH ACROSS THE NERN STATES. THE
WRN/CENTRAL U.S TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
STATES AND RESULT IN RELATIVELY STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE
OH/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO CENTRAL OK/SRN TX PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT UPSLOPE ELY
WINDS WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MODELS AGREE THAT
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT FAVORS
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET FROM NEB INTO ND MAY
RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS OR TWO...WITH WIND THREAT THEN
BECOMING THE GREATER THREAT.


--------------------
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# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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snowlover2
post Jun 17 2011, 02:37 AM
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New day 3 - Believe only the plains threat here.
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Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD
THROUGH INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE WRN U.S UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
CONSEQUENTLY...IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL BE PUSHED NWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...AND EXTEND FROM NM NEWD INTO KS/NEB AND THEN EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD DEVELOP IN ERN CO...WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
EWD ACROSS KS THROUGH SRN MO AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.


...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD FROM NM INTO WRN
KS/NEB LATE SUNDAY AND PROVIDE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONGLY VEERING WINDS...THAT
INCREASE WITH HEIGHT...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NEB AND SD. AS THE
JET MAX LIFTS NEWD OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
ORGANIZE STORMS INTO AN MCS AND SUSTAIN THEM EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL KS SSWWD THROUGH WRN OK/NWRN TX...
AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ERN KS...DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN ACROSS
THIS REGION. NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SINCE IT DOES NOT AMPLIFY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AS MUCH AS OTHER MODELS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB AT LEAST TO 105 DEGREES
NEAR DRYLINE AND MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 17 2011, 06:31 AM
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Attached Image


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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DAYS 4 AND 5...
THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO EXACT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH...THE EURO..GFS AND MREF ARE ALL REMARKABLY CLOSE IN MOVING
CLOSED LOW INTO WRN SD/NEB AREA MON AFTERNOON AND INTO ERN SD TUE
AFTERNOON. IN THIS SCENARIO...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
COLD FRONT WOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO WRN KS/TX
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FROM ERN SD SWD INTO CENTRAL OK/NWRN
TX TUE. VERY HIGH PCPN WATER VALUES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...
COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE LIFTING...SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT...THE GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK
DEPICTS THE AREAS WHERE MORE SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DUE TO
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...DAY 6...
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON WED AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFTS ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION ON WED. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT GIVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR LOCATION OF
GREATER THREAT AREAS...NO GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.

...DAYS 7 AND 8...
UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
NERN STATES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THU AND FRI.

..IMY.. 06/17/2011
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The Snowman
post Jun 17 2011, 11:27 AM
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Wow.

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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 17 2011, 11:36 AM
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Henry..
QUOTE
"Major Outbreak of Severe Weather Next Week"

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snowlover2
post Jun 17 2011, 12:41 PM
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Updated day 2 - significant changes made from earlier day 2. See new day 2 post above to compare. Moderate risk being considered.
Attached Image

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QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...KS/OK...AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MO/MS VALLEY REGION WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE
DAY AND SHIFT EWD A BIT AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALOFT MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NM NEWD
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO
WRN MO BY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WY/CO AND INTO
NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN KS INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM A WRN OK LOW INTO
TX. AS THE UPPER WAVES APPROACH...THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE OLD FRONT
WILL MIX AND WINDS WILL VEER TO ELY OVER KS...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BACK WWD AND RESULTING IN A WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.
MEANWHILE...A SHARP DRYLINE WILL EXIST ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
THE KS/OK BORDER SWD INTO NRN TX. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS.

TO THE N...WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND NWD INTO WY...WRN SD AND
NEB BY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS WELL.


TO THE E...MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON THE E SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...WITH SIGNS OF WEAK
EMBEDDED FEATURES POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.

...KS/OK INTO MO...
MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF ERN KS/WRN MO EARLY
ALLOWING FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION FROM THERE WWD. VERY STRONG
HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TO
PRODUCE EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG OVER
SRN MO...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN KS...AND NRN OK AND AR. CAPPING WILL
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY BUT VERY STRONG HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE
OVER OK AS WELL AS OVER SWRN KS IN THE ELY UPSLOPE AREA SHOULD
RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. WIND PROFILES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE OK AREA MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE DRYLINE...BUT
STORMS THAT GENERATE IN SRN KS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LARGE MCS CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND
WIND DRIVEN HAIL. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARD
TO PRECISE LOCATION...VARYING FROM ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO NERN KS
AND NWRN MO. A MODERATE RISK MAY BE CONSIDERED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN REGARD TO EXACT AREA. THE MOST LIKELY
CORRIDOR FOR A MODERATE APPEARS TO BE FROM S CNTRL KS INTO MUCH OF
ERN KS AND WRN MO.

...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
RATHER COOL PROFILES ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
ERODE CAPPING RELATIVELY EARLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA SWD INTO
ERN CO/WRN KS. STORMS SHOULD FORM RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH A HAIL AND
WIND THREAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MARGINAL
BL RH MAY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW.


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Jun 17 2011, 12:45 PM


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:6

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Warnings:0
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wsushox1
post Jun 17 2011, 01:17 PM
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Oh Baby.....I've had my eye on this system for a while.

Gahh please Play out like forecasted right now.

I, fow once, have to to agree with Henry. this system has potential.

It is a closed low, but the closed low is, as of now, forecasted to be far enough away from the Target Area that it shouldn't cause a Veer-Back-Veer setup.

I will of course have a more detailed write up to come, if things continue to look good.

Synoptically its good enough for a High End Moderate to MAYBE a high risk IF things come together a little better.

Capping is an obvious concern, but with a system that appears to be this dynamic.....it shouldn't be to big of a concern.

This post has been edited by wsushox1: Jun 17 2011, 01:19 PM


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Synoptics>>>>>

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gustfront
post Jun 17 2011, 02:54 PM
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wsushox you can keep all the severe you want back in ict. We here in Joplin do not need any of that stuff again . But anyway does any part of this weekend or next week look like a high end tornadic hreat like the may22 event here for joplin mo area???????????????????????????????
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wsushox1
post Jun 17 2011, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(gustfront @ Jun 17 2011, 02:54 PM) *
wsushox you can keep all the severe you want back in ict. We here in Joplin do not need any of that stuff again . But anyway does any part of this weekend or next week look like a high end tornadic hreat like the may22 event here for joplin mo area???????????????????????????????



No, the 21st is the day that could be the worst for Joplin Area, but as of now I wouldn't say it is even close to a high end Tornadic Threat.

This post has been edited by wsushox1: Jun 17 2011, 05:13 PM


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ChiWxWatcher
post Jun 17 2011, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(wsushox1 @ Jun 17 2011, 01:17 PM) *
Oh Baby.....I've had my eye on this system for a while.

Gahh please Play out like forecasted right now.

I, fow once, have to to agree with Henry. this system has potential.

It is a closed low, but the closed low is, as of now, forecasted to be far enough away from the Target Area that it shouldn't cause a Veer-Back-Veer setup.

I will of course have a more detailed write up to come, if things continue to look good.

Synoptically its good enough for a High End Moderate to MAYBE a high risk IF things come together a little better.

Capping is an obvious concern, but with a system that appears to be this dynamic.....it shouldn't be to big of a concern.

Everyone has been saying that this is appearing to look like an outbreak, and being in the middle of Henry's high risk in IL, I am quite concerned. This is a few days out though....


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post Jun 17 2011, 07:51 PM
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 18 2011, 05:39 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

...ERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
PLAINS DAY3...THOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE NAM.
REGARDLESS...STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS NM/TX PANHANDLE AND EXTEND ALONG A CORRIDOR INTO IA/SWRN WI
WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL CERTAINLY
FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE AN
EXPANDING AND SUPPRESSING EML THAT SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR
AREAS NOT PARTICULARLY CONVERGENT/FORCED. IN FACT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A POWERFUL CAP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE 700MB TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED 14-16C.

LATEST THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE NOSE
OF A STRONG LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE NWD-EWD ALONG EDGE OF
EXPANDING EML AS THICKNESSES RISE IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY PERIOD HAIL THREAT WITH THE ELEVATED
ACTIVITY MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE LATE
IN THE DAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE WARM FRONT
AS VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS OF KS INTO OK WILL RESULT
IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT COULD/SHOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND
RISK.

..DARROW.. 06/18/2011

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WeatherMonger
post Jun 18 2011, 05:39 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...MIDWEST...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MOST LIKELY DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW MIGRATES INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.
SEASONABLY STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD A
FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MO/IA INTO IL. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST AND LIKELY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE A
NOTABLE WARM FRONT THAT RETREATS TO A POSITION NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER...SEWD INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUCH THAT SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE MCS
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE. BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE.

..DARROW.. 06/18/2011

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