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> June 19-24th Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS
WolfSpider
post Jun 21 2011, 12:52 PM
Post #401




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QUOTE(forpetessake @ Jun 21 2011, 12:48 PM) *
yeppers. Jest checked it out...looks good. wink.gif

Do u think they will issue us a tornado watch?

They usually do when they issue a mesoscale discussion.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1337.html


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 21 2011, 12:53 PM
Post #402




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12Z 4KM WRF-NMM finall updated, looks better than the 15Z HRRR I think



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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 21 2011, 01:01 PM
Post #403




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From: Champaign, IL
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QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211756Z - 211900Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SERN
MO INTO SRN IL AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF AN MCV ACROSS SERN MO...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE NEWD INTO IL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND AREA PROFILERS
INDICATE 40-50 KT MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...AND SOME CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO NNEWD MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS OR BOWS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A BIT MARGINAL WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING
WITH TIME...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS
AND EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100 M2/S2 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES.


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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The Snowman
post Jun 21 2011, 01:15 PM
Post #404




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Maybe they're just sitting, but there's a chaser on the IL/IN border.
Foreshadowing?


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2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 21 2011, 01:28 PM
Post #405




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QUOTE
WOUS64 KWNS 211820
WOU1

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TORNADO WATCH 531 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC003-005-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-
049-051-055-061-065-077-079-081-083-087-101-107-115-117-119-121-
125-127-129-133-135-137-139-145-147-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-
169-171-173-181-183-189-191-199-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0531.110621T1825Z-110622T0100Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN
CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND
DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HAMILTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MASON MASSAC
MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN MOULTRIE PERRY
PIATT POPE PULASKI
RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
SHELBY ST. CLAIR UNION
VERMILION WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILLIAMSON


KYC007-145-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0531.110621T1825Z-110622T0100Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD MCCRACKEN


MOC017-031-035-055-065-071-093-099-123-149-157-179-183-186-187-
189-201-203-221-223-510-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0531.110621T1825Z-110622T0100Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOLLINGER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER
CRAWFORD DENT FRANKLIN
IRON JEFFERSON MADISON
OREGON PERRY REYNOLDS
SCOTT SHANNON ST. CHARLES
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE
WASHINGTON WAYNE


MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ST. LOUIS CITY


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...ILX...
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 21 2011, 01:25 PM
Post #406




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Here we go cool.gif

Attached Image


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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Southern Indiana
post Jun 21 2011, 01:30 PM
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Here are two photos I took where there could be something going on in the middle of the photo, possibly nothing. Its difficult to see. I thought I saw a funnel cloud and after I got over the trees this was all that was left. Im totally ok with being wrong but I wanted to share with the community for confirmation purposes of what I was looking at.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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Southern Indiana
post Jun 21 2011, 01:32 PM
Post #408




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There was wind damage in this storm I am about to report, A large (~>18-21 inch Radius, Too far to make a determination) trunk of a 3 trunk tree snapped at the base, fell on a power pole, and broke the pole in half... it was hanging by the lines.


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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futureweatherman...
post Jun 21 2011, 01:42 PM
Post #409




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QUOTE(Illinois blizzard @ Jun 21 2011, 02:25 PM) *
Here we go cool.gif

Attached Image

QUOTE
SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHAMPAIGN
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THE VERY MOIST/MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH
HAS BECOME UNCAPPED. WITH 40KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH ENHANCED
ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV MOVING NEWD FROM SRN MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ACROSS MO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/WIND
DAMAGE...BUT SHEAR SUPPORTS TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
DEVELOPS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


--------------------


QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 21 2011, 01:43 PM
Post #410




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Probs on watch



QUOTE
Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Jun 21 2011, 01:45 PM
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 21 2011, 01:39 PM
Post #411




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Is it me or is all of the NWS radars offline? blink.gif

ILX

This post has been edited by Illinois blizzard: Jun 21 2011, 01:41 PM


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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WeatherMonger
post Jun 21 2011, 01:47 PM
Post #412




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Ugh, 2 hours and 45 minutes until I'm off. Hopefully something still left by the time I get home, if anything comes through that is
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 21 2011, 01:50 PM
Post #413




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QUOTE(Illinois blizzard @ Jun 21 2011, 01:39 PM) *
Is it me or is all of the NWS radars offline? blink.gif

ILX

Doesn't have a status message and still works on my phone app. Only one in sligt risk that appears inoperable is KIND

Actually I think it's the site, ILX hasn't had a recent update from Capital airport since noon

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Jun 21 2011, 01:51 PM
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SADBadger
post Jun 21 2011, 01:44 PM
Post #414




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QUOTE(Illinois blizzard @ Jun 21 2011, 01:39 PM) *
Is it me or is all of the NWS radars offline? blink.gif

ILX


MKX, LOT and GRB are all offline, too. Not good on a day like this. I was looking at GRB radar and it was raining here in west 'Tosa. It wasn't on the radar at all.



This post has been edited by SADBadger: Jun 21 2011, 01:46 PM


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Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 21 2011, 01:44 PM
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QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 144 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CANNON FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CANNON FALLS...
NEW TRIER...
RANDOLPH...
HAMPTON...
VERMILLION...
COATES...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

&&



--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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WeatherMonger
post Jun 21 2011, 01:55 PM
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Did anyone have their weather radio go off with watch issuance? Wonder if it's just a data transmission problem through the website or if all communications, satellite or something is down
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 21 2011, 01:49 PM
Post #417




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jun 21 2011, 01:50 PM) *
Doesn't have a status message and still works on my phone app. Only one in sligt risk that appears inoperable is KIND

Actually I think it's the site, ILX hasn't had a recent update from Capital airport since noon


Yeah it is, the site not showing watches, warning, ect..


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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CentralIllinois
post Jun 21 2011, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jun 21 2011, 01:47 PM) *
Ugh, 2 hours and 45 minutes until I'm off. Hopefully something still left by the time I get home, if anything comes through that is

It's been sunny here all day....I didn't even know we were under a tornado watch till I went to to the spc page because the nws page isn't updating


--------------------



QUOTE
WCIA_dfabert Forecast is much more believeable! Notice that the legend has changed! #cILwx

^
After 1 model run



2013-2014
# of Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4
# of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:3
# of Tornado Watches:0
# of Tornado Warnings:1

2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall: 24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 21 2011, 01:51 PM
Post #419




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QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
150 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KANDIYOHI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 149 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LAKE LILLIAN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WILLMAR...
THORPE...
LAKE LILLIAN...
BLOMKEST...
SVEA...
KANDIYOHI...
PRIAM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

&&


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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SWOhioweather
post Jun 21 2011, 01:58 PM
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Let's see what we can get to popup around here. Currently 93 with a DP of 75. Feels very muggy outside...
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