Remnant Beatriz, 03Z: 25kt Options

[Phased Vort]

INVEST 92E

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

Graphical TWO

[NYCSuburbs]

Now that I finally found my tropical weather links, 92E seems to be under a favorable environment, with no dry air, low shear, and warm SSTs. It still needs to organize itself as it's not very organized right now, but once it does, it should probably intensify into our second named tropical storm of the season. Looking at the Modeled intensity forecast, excluding the crazy SHIPS, the IVCN intensifies this into a strong tropical storm, and the GFS also somewhat develops this invest, showing it moving WNW before recurving to the NE and hitting Mexico.

[MAC292OH10]

12Z GFS



----

18Z





----

[NYCSuburbs]

I see Tropical Depression 2-E in the near future...

1. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE AREA OFDISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPECSOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE DISTURBANCE ISEXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TOBECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OFMEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THENEXT FEW DAYS.

Source



This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jun 18 2011, 03:19 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

Soon to be TD 2-E looks quite healthy this morning:



NHC agrees - they even state that a tropical depression may already be forming in their morning discussion.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEWHOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BEFORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BEINITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ORNORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERNCOAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ITCOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

The modeled intensity on wunderground keeps this as a weak tropical storm, but the modeled tracks are more of a concern for Mexico:

[Torontoweather]

Listed now as Tropical Depression 2-E on the 12z early model guidance:

[MAC292OH10]

numerous sites have this at TD.02E so NHC should be updating soon...

12Z

[Superstorm93]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...

CODE

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922011_ep022011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106191257
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Jun 19 2011, 10:00 AM

[MAC292OH10]

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...







This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 19 2011, 02:18 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...

Wow, that was quick... the southern coast of Mexico should keep a close eye on this one. It'll be interesting to see what the 5 PM update shows.

[MAC292OH10]

12Z COAMPS TCP
















120hr precip



This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 19 2011, 03:03 PM

[MAC292OH10]

18Z consensus models

[Phased Vort]

Everything progressed pretty much as scheduled.

[MAC292OH10]

18Z GFDL @36hr

[MAC292OH10]

[Superstorm93]

The COAMPS has a strong intensity bias, but FWIW...

------------------------------------------------------ STORM DATA ----------------------------------------------------------

NTIME 022
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126
LAT (DEG) 14.1 14.5 15.3 15.6 16.3 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.4 20.3 20.7 20.8 20.3 19.4 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.8 19.1 9999
LON (DEG) 259.3 258.5 258.0 257.3 256.8 256.6 255.8 255.3 254.7 254.3 254.0 253.4 252.3 251.1 249.9 249.3 249.1 249.1 249.2 249.1 249.2 9999
MAXWIND (KT) 42 54 61 69 75 83 95 94 81 61 58 50 46 37 33 28 24 24 22 23 22 9999
RMW (KM) 47 45 61 34 44 68 40 46 46 46 55 58 46 51 71 58 50 50 97 50 61 9999
MIN_SLP (MB) 1003 989 986 976 967 962 955 957 967 984 991 996 998 999 1001 1001 1002 1002 1002 1002 1002 9999
SHR_MAG (KT) 11 10 15 15 18 19 20 16 11 8 6 2 5 6 6 4 7 12 15 14 11 9999
SHR_DIR (DEG) 280 232 260 278 271 275 284 295 284 256 233 101 67 34 35 1 300 299 306 303 295 9999
STM_SPD (KT) 7 8 6 7 8 8 6 5 4 6 9 10 10 11 9 5 0 1 1 2 9999 9999

[NYCSuburbs]

Beatriz is really getting its act together... it's already a 60 mph tropical storm. NHC expects Beatriz to become a strong Category 1 hurricane, but with the conditions it's currently under, it'll be interesting to see if it can briefly become a Category 2 hurricane before coming too close to land or weakening due to colder SSTs/higher shear.



NHC's discussion also mentions this possibility indirectly, stating that Beatriz could rapidly intensify:

THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. WITH AN ALREADY
EXPANSIVE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN PRESENT...AND THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 24 HOURS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
PHYSICAL REASONS WHY BEATRIZ SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
DURING THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
NORMAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KT WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 29C. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BEATRIZ IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22-24C AND ALSO
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
CYCLONE WEAKENING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.

Source

I can't find a still satellite image, but its organization seems to have improved over the last few hours when looking at the loops.

[Torontoweather]

Beatriz is really getting its act together... it's already a 60 mph tropical storm. NHC expects Beatriz to become a strong Category 1 hurricane, but with the conditions it's currently under, it'll be interesting to see if it can briefly become a Category 2 hurricane before coming too close to land or weakening due to colder SSTs/higher shear.



NHC's discussion also mentions this possibility indirectly, stating that Beatriz could rapidly intensify:
Source

I can't find a still satellite image, but its organization seems to have improved over the last few hours when looking at the loops.

SOURCE

[NYCSuburbs]

SOURCE

Thanks. Beatriz looks quite decent especially on the visible satellite.

5 PM update has Beatriz at 70 mph:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...BEATRIZ NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED
NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

Source?

[MAC292OH10]

00Z ECMWF EPS members





This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 20 2011, 04:21 PM