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> INVEST 96L, Tropical Fomation Development Level: Low - 10%
MAC292OH10
post Jul 7 2011, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107071831
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011070706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011070612, , BEST, 0, 237N, 828W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070618, , BEST, 0, 232N, 841W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070700, , BEST, 0, 236N, 845W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070706, , BEST, 0, 240N, 848W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2011070712, , BEST, 0, 244N, 851W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2011070718, , BEST, 0, 248N, 853W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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MAC292OH10
post Jul 7 2011, 01:44 PM
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not pretty but hey its slow...

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image
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Novachris
post Jul 7 2011, 02:54 PM
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hopefully this will bring some much needed rain to florida.
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snowrawrsnow
post Jul 7 2011, 05:34 PM
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Hi, long time stalker, lurker, creeper, first time-poster. I still have a lot to learn about the weather, models and such, so bare with me if this or any of my posts seem ametureish.

I don't see 96L becoming anything more then a TD at max, for two reasons, one, the winds aren't going to get much better, limiting any development of this to a lower-end system, if at all. The second is how close it is to land, most models bring this system into land in the next 1-3 days (if i'm reading them right, please correct me if i'm not). Either way, 96L will bring much needed rain into Florida, thankfully with not much wind or waves.


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hckyplayer8
post Jul 7 2011, 05:36 PM
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Yawn.


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east coast storm
post Jul 7 2011, 07:09 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Jul 7 2011, 06:36 PM) *
Yawn.

I would not write 96L off just yet. As the low drifts NE in the ocean east of the
Carolinas this weekend, if will be over the gulf stream. We could have TS
Bret. You never know.
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MAC292OH10
post Jul 7 2011, 07:22 PM
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QUOTE(snowrawrsnow @ Jul 7 2011, 06:34 PM) *
Hi, long time stalker, lurker, creeper, first time-poster. I still have a lot to learn about the weather, models and such, so bare with me if this or any of my posts seem ametureish.

I don't see 96L becoming anything more then a TD at max, for two reasons, one, the winds aren't going to get much better, limiting any development of this to a lower-end system, if at all. The second is how close it is to land, most models bring this system into land in the next 1-3 days (if i'm reading them right, please correct me if i'm not). Either way, 96L will bring much needed rain into Florida, thankfully with not much wind or waves.


it may have a slim chance @ sub-tropical TD at best....reason i say subtropical is it has form in conjunction with an ULL regressing across the GOM(alot of the reason it looks like a blown out coma head mid-lat system, UL winds etc)....the NHC has now bumped it to 40% but IMHO thats appears a little high maybe 20% at best...

QUOTE
NHC Atlantic Graphical Outlook

Attached Image

1. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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jdrenken
post Jul 7 2011, 07:41 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jul 7 2011, 07:09 PM) *
I would not write 96L off just yet. As the low drifts NE in the ocean east of the
Carolinas this weekend, if will be over the gulf stream. We could have TS
Bret. You never know.


Enough. Unless you can provide the backing, don't wishcast it.


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jdrenken
post Jul 7 2011, 07:42 PM
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QUOTE(snowrawrsnow @ Jul 7 2011, 05:34 PM) *
Hi, long time stalker, lurker, creeper, first time-poster. I still have a lot to learn about the weather, models and such, so bare with me if this or any of my posts seem ametureish.

I don't see 96L becoming anything more then a TD at max, for two reasons, one, the winds aren't going to get much better, limiting any development of this to a lower-end system, if at all. The second is how close it is to land, most models bring this system into land in the next 1-3 days (if i'm reading them right, please correct me if i'm not). Either way, 96L will bring much needed rain into Florida, thankfully with not much wind or waves.


Welcome to the forums and you did a good job on your first post!


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Superstorm93
post Jul 7 2011, 07:54 PM
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Been cloudy with showers all day here. Not too much rain, but it helped.

18z HWRF



00z Early



This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Jul 7 2011, 07:55 PM


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jdrenken
post Jul 7 2011, 08:02 PM
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The 18Z model tracks.



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Superstorm93
post Jul 7 2011, 08:08 PM
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00z Model Tracks

Excellent cluster:


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east coast storm
post Jul 7 2011, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Jul 7 2011, 09:08 PM) *
00z Model Tracks

Excellent cluster:

I have a question. Would 96L move up to off the NC coast saturday and OTS and
would a second low form in the GOM saturday and move NE to off the NC coast
early next week? Thank you.
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NorEaster07
post Jul 7 2011, 09:08 PM
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Only one model has it peaking at 45mph winds.



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2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
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2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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east coast storm
post Jul 7 2011, 09:32 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 7 2011, 08:41 PM) *
Enough. Unless you can provide the backing, don't wishcast it.

I was not wishcasting Sir. As you know the NHC now has TC potential up
to 40%. There is the backing.
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Niyologist
post Jul 7 2011, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 7 2011, 10:08 PM) *
Only one model has it peaking at 45mph winds.



What happened if that one model ends up being correct? tongue.gif


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jdrenken
post Jul 7 2011, 09:46 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jul 7 2011, 09:32 PM) *
I was not wishcasting Sir. As you know the NHC now has TC potential up
to 40%. There is the backing.


The key is 40% chance of development. You are already labeling it as a TS.

QUOTE(east coast storm @ Jul 7 2011, 07:09 PM) *
I would not write 96L off just yet. As the low drifts NE in the ocean east of the
Carolinas this weekend, if will be over the gulf stream. We could have TS
Bret. You never know.


Last chance.


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jdrenken
post Jul 7 2011, 09:49 PM
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Let's bring out the CIMSS toys.

300mb




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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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jdrenken
post Jul 8 2011, 06:49 AM
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Down...down...down.



QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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rainstorm
post Jul 8 2011, 07:34 AM
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conditions horrible for developemnt. east coast trough. upper low and a cold front to the north. looks like a winter time pattern. at some point this needs to reverse for in close development. 96L reminds me a bit of bonnie last season.
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