Winter 2011-2012 Canada, Outlooks and Forecasts Options

[bigmt]

Any idea if April 2012 will resemble anything like April 2009? I had some warm days in the 20's that year. It was a fairly wet March and April, but April had warm days and then it continued warming up into the summer with a couple heat waves in the mid to upper 30's.

Those days, I was thankful I had A/C haha.

The latest CFS paints a picture of continuing cool weather for BC in April:

 usT2mMon.gif ( 7.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Things could very well change this far out however, so we'll have to watch how the pattern shapes up. If the La Nina gives up the ghost sooner than expected things could certainly turn out differently.

[Removed_Member_thehammer_*]

Check out the flowers in downtown Hamilton and the temperature anomalies are incredible! We've been nowhere near normal.
I wish they had the number of days above 0. I heard it a couple weeks ago and it was staggering. At that time, there had only been about 9 days with a high temp below 0 all winter.
What a joke this winter was.
Looks to cool off Sun-Monday and then moderate quickly before a full week of spring weather approaches late next week and the following week.

http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/...-that-went-awol

[TheFrenchman]

The latest CFS paints a picture of continuing cool weather for BC in April:

 usT2mMon.gif ( 7.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Things could very well change this far out however, so we'll have to watch how the pattern shapes up. If the La Nina gives up the ghost sooner than expected things could certainly turn out differently.

Oh no... that blue color over Quebec...!!! I want a warm spring!!

[stuffradio]

Check out the flowers in downtown Hamilton and the temperature anomalies are incredible! We've been nowhere near normal.
I wish they had the number of days above 0. I heard it a couple weeks ago and it was staggering. At that time, there had only been about 9 days with a high temp below 0 all winter.
What a joke this winter was.
Looks to cool off Sun-Monday and then moderate quickly before a full week of spring weather approaches late next week and the following week.

http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/...-that-went-awol

Snowdrops usually sprout in January here. I had Snowdrop flowers January 1st last year.

[Eastern Ontario ...]

I found this to be an interesting read in the Ottawa Citizen today. It looks like NASA is even interested in how snow falls. In a few years we may have a better means of predicting how much snow a storm may hold.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/NASA+latest+d...7144/story.html

[JJ Snowlover]

I found this to be an interesting read in the Ottawa Citizen today. It looks like NASA is even interested in how snow falls. In a few years we may have a better means of predicting how much snow a storm may hold.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/NASA+latest+d...7144/story.html

Funny, I was just about to post the same article, It was an interesting read.

[nordicWX]

Hey,

Is winter starting now???

[snowgeek93]

Winter making one last comeback this morning. -11 currently with a windchill of -18, frosted up my windows as well. Looking forward for the +13 for Wednesday though, gotta love March.

[bigmt]

Last night's 00z run of the operational Euro shows another quick-hitting chilly shot this coming weekend but the cold retreats as fast as it comes in (same old, same old there) and more warm air takes hold after that. Doubt if that will be the last frosty spell for the entire spring but heat looks as if it will continue to rule the pattern.

00z ECMWF @ hour 96:

 00zeuro850mbTSLPUS096.gif ( 66.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

 00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif ( 65.77K ) Number of downloads: 0

[an uncanny otter]

Got my first cm of snow of March this morning. At this rate we're gonna be buried under millimetres of snow!

[ottawasnowstorm]

Completely enjoying this warm weather now after the worst winter as far as I am concerned. Some aren't even wearing jackets out now. This weekend, especially sunday real warm, too.

[JJ Snowlover]

We did average out around the 11th of February, with 23 cms on the ground both years. We started the month this year with 26 cms and have been dropping everyday since (except for tomorrow )

Total snow to date 2011 (from Nov. - Feb.21) = 74 cms

Total snow to date 2012 (from Nov. - Feb.21) = 78.2 cms

We are about the same, Jan.2012 was a good boast at 40.4 cms and Dec 2011 ended up pretty good with 27.9 cms, it's been February this year that's killing us, only 3.1 cms to date after tomorrow storm 2012 should still be running even with 2011 as that year also had a couple storms at the end of Feb.

I'll anaylsis again in April to see what happened.

Thought I'd run the numbers again, now that the snow SHOULD be done...

Feb 2012 total snow = 22.7 cms
Feb 2011 total snow = 36 cms

March 2012 total snow = 5.9 cms
March 2011 total snow = 31 cms

April 2012 total snow = 4.2 cms
April 2011 total snow = 3.1 cms

Total snowfall for Ottawa 2012 = 104.8 cms, far below normals, as expected, not that much below 2011.

Total snowfall for Ottawa 2011 = 121.5 cms

Let's hope 2012 - 2013 is a better year

[ottawasnowstorm]

Thought I'd run the numbers again, now that the snow SHOULD be done...

Feb 2012 total snow = 22.7 cms
Feb 2011 total snow = 36 cms

March 2012 total snow = 5.9 cms
March 2011 total snow = 31 cms

April 2012 total snow = 4.2 cms
April 2011 total snow = 3.1 cms

Total snowfall for Ottawa 2012 = 104.8 cms, far below normals, as expected, not that much below 2011.

Total snowfall for Ottawa 2011 = 121.5 cms

Let's hope 2012 - 2013 is a better year

I was always saying this past winter of 2011/2012 would be worse than 2010/2011, that is, less snow. I don't even think a single snow event gave us 15 cm or more this year. That is....

[ottawasnowstorm]

For those of you in Ottawa.......

Just in the OTTAWA CITIZEN newspaper today, this past winter (november through march, not official winter months but what we consider winter around here), it was the WARMEST winter on record since record keeping bagan back in the 1800's. And it was the THIRD LESS snowiest on record. So, now you know why I was down all winter.......

This post has been edited by ottawasnowstorm: May 8 2012, 11:41 AM

[bigmt]

For those of you in Ottawa.......

Just in the OTTAWA CITIZEN newspaper today, this past winter (november through march, not official winter months but what we consider winter around here), it was the WARMEST winter on record since record keeping bagan back in the 1800's. And it was the THIRD LESS snowiest on record. So, now you know why I was down all winter.......

Yup, here's a link to the article and some excerpts.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/We...4535/story.html

It’s official — the winter of 2011-12 was the warmest Ottawa has ever seen.

Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips said Monday that for the period of November through March — not the official winter but the “real” winter Ottawans experience — the average temperature was –1.3 degrees C. Normal would be –5.3.

In records that go back to 1889, there’s never been a winter like it. The winter of 2001-02, which had an average temperature of –1.7, had been the champ until now.

On top of that, the winter had the third-lowest amount of snow on record for that five-month period at 108 centimetres. Normal would be 203.

Figures for Environment Canada’s official December-February winter period tell a story of very mild winter throughout the country.

The winter-that-wasn’t was most pronounced on the Prairies, which had the driest winter on record, with 56 per cent less snow and rain than normal and temperatures more than 6 C higher than normal, according to Environment Canada.

They report that the national average temperature for the winter 2011-12 was 3.6 C above normal, the third warmest since nationwide records began in 1948.

“Virtually all of the country was above normal, with most of the prairie provinces experiencing temperatures more than 6 degrees above normal,” Environment Canada’s climate science team said in its winter bulletin posted online Monday. Small areas of the British Columbia and Labrador coasts and northern Nunavut had the closest to normal temperatures.

Winter 2011-12 was also unusually dry, with 18 per cent less precipitation than normal. That made it the second driest in the 65 years of record, second only to the winter of 1956-57.

The Prairies, northern Northwest Territories and northern Quebec were at least 40 per cent drier than normal — in the case of the Prairies the driest on record at 56 per cent below normal.

Only the Pacific coast was soggier than usual, with two per cent more rain and snow than normal.

[JJ Snowlover]

Yup, here's a link to the article and some excerpts.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/We...4535/story.html

108cms according to EC, I was close at 104.8 cms

Also back in like Sept, Oct, somebody, either EC or TWN said we were supposed to have a typical COLD and SNOWY winter last year. Quite a difference.

This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: May 10 2012, 10:08 AM

[EOsnowmom]

Also back in like Sept, Oct, somebody, either EC or TWN said we were supposed to have a typical COLD and SNOWY winter last year. Quite a difference.

This post doesn't mentions snowy, but I've found a couple talking about COLD.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/11/16/ca..._n_1098650.html

and this one has poor Dave Phillips admitting how wrong they were.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/201...79251328054958/

He wasn't the only on off with their forecast. I think this winter was quite out of the ordinary and hard to predict.

[an uncanny otter]

At least there is a partial solar eclipse coming up on May 21 to offset this boring weather for some of us in eastern Canada.

http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar...gleMapFull.html