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> INVEST 97L, Tropical Fomation Development Level: Low 0%
snowrawrsnow
post Jul 13 2011, 08:54 AM
Post #1




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The Navy has the low pressure in the Bay of Campeche designated 97L, and the NHC has issued a special tropical outlook, upping the system from 10% to 50% chance of development.
Attached Image
QUOTE
1. UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.


I hope istarted this topic right.


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jdrenken
post Jul 13 2011, 09:33 AM
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You did fine...just remember to place the potential in the sub-title next time.
QUOTE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107131226
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011071312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011071212, , BEST, 0, 183N, 882W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071218, , BEST, 0, 189N, 896W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071300, , BEST, 0, 193N, 918W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071306, , BEST, 0, 195N, 937W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 953W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 30, 0, 0, L


QUOTE
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY.
REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI


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WeatherMatrix
post Jul 13 2011, 09:52 AM
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From our internal tropical discussion this morning:
QUOTE
An area of thunderstorms that have formed in the past 12 hours in the Bay of Campeche are showing signs of development. A Polar Orbiting Satellite image taken around 8AM EDT shows thunderstorms are starting to curve around a common center near 19.5 north, 95.5 west. The whole feature is moving west at 15 mph and the center of this feature is roughly 50 miles from the Mexican coast east of Vera Cruz, Mexico. This feature is going to move inland in about 2-4 hours. Before that there is some chance this could be classified as a depression or weak storm. Surface observations show a counter clockwise wind flow in this general area. But no observations show low enough pressure or strong enough wind to declare this an organized tropical system. Visible satellite images suggest this feature has a very small area of low pressure that won't show up on the sparse surface data until the feature moves onshore early this afternoon.


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MAC292OH10
post Jul 13 2011, 01:49 PM
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inland...0% chance....

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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 13 2011, 04:53 PM
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That was one of the shortest lasting invests I can remember recently... I didn't even notice anything about it early this morning and now it's already inland.


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