Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> July 26th Mid-Atl/NE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: slight
albanyweather
post Jul 25 2011, 08:40 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





May need an upgrade to a slight risk for northern areas...
Attached Image

QUOTE
...NERN STATES...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NRN
MID ATLANTIC STATES. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
SECONDARY FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT HEATING...SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME...BUT STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.


This post has been edited by albanyweather: Jul 26 2011, 07:28 AM


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Jul 26 2011, 07:32 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





Here's the upgrade from SPC. Today should be better than yesterday. Full sun here already. Nice short wave digging on the WV loop.
Attached Image

QUOTE
...NORTHEAST STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LOWER MI AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER NY/PA WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE
MORNING. STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND 50-70 KT
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.


This post has been edited by albanyweather: Jul 26 2011, 07:32 AM


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dave12308
post Jul 26 2011, 07:40 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 932
Joined: 15-June 09
From: Schenectady, NY
Member No.: 18,424





Keeping my fingers crossed! Looks like we have some potential here, and no early-day convection to screw up the diurnal heating.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Jul 26 2011, 09:06 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





QUOTE(Dave12308 @ Jul 26 2011, 08:40 AM) *
Keeping my fingers crossed! Looks like we have some potential here, and no early-day convection to screw up the diurnal heating.

Indeed. Good amount of shear, mid-level laps rates not too bad and thermodynamics increasing already. Things are looking pretty nice at the moment.


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dave12308
post Jul 26 2011, 09:43 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 932
Joined: 15-June 09
From: Schenectady, NY
Member No.: 18,424





QUOTE(albanyweather @ Jul 26 2011, 10:06 AM) *
Indeed. Good amount of shear, mid-level laps rates not too bad and thermodynamics increasing already. Things are looking pretty nice at the moment.


Yeah, not wanting to jinx things by getting too excited, but it looks like this could be our day (moreso than most others so far). The local forecast discussion is saying that we might fall just short of severe criteria as far as storms go since CAPE isn't too wild; however at this point i'd take a nice strong storm and not complain!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SyracuseSnow
post Jul 26 2011, 10:02 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,073
Joined: 28-February 08
From: Cicero, NY
Member No.: 14,040





First warning of the day in CNY.
Attached Image


--------------------
KSYR Statistics
Least Snowiest Winter 50.6" (2011-2012)
Snowiest Winter 192.1" (1992-1993)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dave12308
post Jul 26 2011, 10:12 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 932
Joined: 15-June 09
From: Schenectady, NY
Member No.: 18,424





Mesoscale discussion out for most of the area, they are saying a watch is needed soon; probably by noon EDT.

EDIT: And, as of 11:30AM EDT, Severe thunderstorm watch #686 in effect until 7PM EDT

This post has been edited by Dave12308: Jul 26 2011, 10:41 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Hail_on_Me
post Jul 26 2011, 10:23 AM
Post #8




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 397
Joined: 7-August 09
From: NE Jersey Baby!
Member No.: 18,838





RUC14Z has decent CAPE and LI for NENJ this afternoon with........A butt load of shear.

Shear around 50kts for most of the afternoon/early evening.
If only we had decent forcing today.


Helicity has some pretty interesting values as well

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=...p;archive=false


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dave12308
post Jul 26 2011, 11:36 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 932
Joined: 15-June 09
From: Schenectady, NY
Member No.: 18,424





And as usual.......... Nice impressive cells coming in from the West, and in the space of 5 minutes are totally falling apart right before they get to my area. Parameters may be good, but apparently not IMBY. Wonder if this is going to be the trend all day, hold on nicely right up until they get to the Capital Region?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Jul 26 2011, 12:05 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





Tonado warning west of Utica. Velocity scan looks classic.


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SyracuseSnow
post Jul 26 2011, 12:20 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,073
Joined: 28-February 08
From: Cicero, NY
Member No.: 14,040





QUOTE(albanyweather @ Jul 26 2011, 01:05 PM) *
Tonado warning west of Utica. Velocity scan looks classic.

It was confirmed by multiple spotters in the area, just west of Hamilton college.


--------------------
KSYR Statistics
Least Snowiest Winter 50.6" (2011-2012)
Snowiest Winter 192.1" (1992-1993)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Jul 26 2011, 12:50 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





QUOTE(Dave12308 @ Jul 26 2011, 12:36 PM) *
And as usual.......... Nice impressive cells coming in from the West, and in the space of 5 minutes are totally falling apart right before they get to my area. Parameters may be good, but apparently not IMBY. Wonder if this is going to be the trend all day, hold on nicely right up until they get to the Capital Region?

Get ready Dave laugh.gif I'm going to miss it just to the south here at work sad.gif
CODE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC001-083-091-093-261845-
/O.NEW.KALY.SV.W.0137.110726T1742Z-110726T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SOUTH CENTRAL SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 134 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  ROTTERDAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   DELMAR BY 150 PM EDT...
   LOUDONVILLE AND ALBANY BY 155 PM EDT...
   LATHAM AND COHOES BY 200 PM EDT...
   WATERVLIET...GREEN ISLAND...MENANDS AND WATERFORD BY 205 PM EDT...
   TROY BY 210 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Jul 26 2011, 01:05 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





New Meso. disco.
Attached Image
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1747.html


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Niyologist
post Jul 26 2011, 01:00 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,693
Joined: 7-January 08
From: Mount Vernon, NY
Member No.: 12,006





QUOTE(albanyweather @ Jul 26 2011, 02:05 PM) *


I REFUSE to be apart of this on this pleasant, sunny, glorious day. dry.gif tongue.gif


--------------------
CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: VSonic GR06 (MSRP $59.99), MEElec M-DUO (MSRP $79.99), Beyerdynamic DTX-910 (MSRP $79.99), Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)

SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E11 Headphone Amplifier w/C3 32GB MicroSD Card Class 6

To learn more about Sound Frequency:
http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm

If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors)
http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dave12308
post Jul 26 2011, 01:01 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 932
Joined: 15-June 09
From: Schenectady, NY
Member No.: 18,424





So far it hasn't amounted to much more than a heavy rainstorm with a bit of lightning and thunder. Still, better than most so far this year, just not what i'd call severe (or even particularly strong). Actually looks like it's gonna hit Albany better than it hit us looking at the current radar picture.

EDIT: By the way, no "damaging winds to 60MPH" around here either, if we are lucky we might have had a wind gust that hit 6.0MPH - it's actually quite still outside.

This post has been edited by Dave12308: Jul 26 2011, 01:10 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Jul 26 2011, 01:18 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





QUOTE(Dave12308 @ Jul 26 2011, 02:01 PM) *
So far it hasn't amounted to much more than a heavy rainstorm with a bit of lightning and thunder. Still, better than most so far this year, just not what i'd call severe (or even particularly strong). Actually looks like it's gonna hit Albany better than it hit us looking at the current radar picture.

EDIT: By the way, no "damaging winds to 60MPH" around here either, if we are lucky we might have had a wind gust that hit 6.0MPH - it's actually quite still outside.

Just got a warning here in Selkirk so I guess I won't miss out biggrin.gif


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dave12308
post Jul 26 2011, 01:20 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 932
Joined: 15-June 09
From: Schenectady, NY
Member No.: 18,424





Hope it amounts to more than it did here, not raining anymore and what we did get I would say didn't even warrant a warning. The heaviest precip was South of me. Also, looks like everything else to the West is going to end up going South unless it changes direction pretty quick here. Only time will tell, but like I said, hope y'all get more than we did here.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Jul 26 2011, 02:05 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





SE NY is in a pretty good spot to see severe storms persisting/intensifying as the storms there are moving into an area of higher parameters with decent bulk shear. Further south into NYC, we have good parameters, but the lapse rates aren't very supportive. There's storms in NE PA moving SE, and if they can hold themselves together over the next few hours, some places in the NYC area could be surprised late this afternoon.

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Dave12308
post Jul 26 2011, 02:16 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 932
Joined: 15-June 09
From: Schenectady, NY
Member No.: 18,424





Well, looks like this is it once this all moves out. Typical Summer 2011 "Non-Event" for us here in the middle of the city of Schenectady. Oh well, at least we got a soaking rain and some thunder and lightning.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Jul 26 2011, 02:21 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





QUOTE(Dave12308 @ Jul 26 2011, 03:16 PM) *
Well, looks like this is it once this all moves out. Typical Summer 2011 "Non-Event" for us here in the middle of the city of Schenectady. Oh well, at least we got a soaking rain and some thunder and lightning.

Not much here either. One went north, just catching the edge of the one going south. Some rain, decent lightning and thunder. Theres always Friday.


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 18th September 2014 - 02:39 AM