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> Aug 2nd: Severe Weather Potential in SW ON
an uncanny otter
post Aug 1 2011, 12:58 PM
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First time making a thread here.

The SPC has much of SW Ontario in a 15% and 30% of severe on Tuesday.





QUOTE
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

...GREAT LAKES INTO UPPER OH VALLEY...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WHILE SEVERAL WEAKER
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTINCT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE MOVING INTO MN BY 02/12Z...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER MN/WI/UPPER MI TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL PROMOTE
INTENSIFICATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK INTO LOWER MI.
CURRENT PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED SEVERE MCS
TRACKING INTO NORTHERN OH AND WESTERN PA DURING THE EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AN
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT
GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
Note the potential upgrade to Moderate Risk - definitely something to keep an eye on!

Greg Forbes is issuing a TORCON of 4 for north OH and south MI, indicating "Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible."
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TriC
post Aug 1 2011, 06:42 PM
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Yep looks like it could be a good afternoon Tomorrow.


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bwfan
post Aug 1 2011, 08:29 PM
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Excellent - we are in need of a good MCS through this area and some rain!
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cm023
post Aug 1 2011, 11:58 PM
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Come on MCS through London causing a East London Power outage around 3:15 pm thus the Evening shift at work to be cancelled and giving me a 4 day long weekend.. smile.gif

But seriously, looking at some future cast's for tomorrow we should get a good shot at something. Now of course the SPC has put us in the 30/15% border and we haven't seen a thing. I do believe the timing will be later in the evening around 7-9pm. Even if non-severe we should see some showers and much needed rain.

QUOTE
STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL PROMOTE
INTENSIFICATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK INTO LOWER MI.
CURRENT PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED SEVERE MCS
TRACKING INTO NORTHERN OH AND WESTERN PA DURING THE EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AN
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT
GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.


This post has been edited by cm023: Aug 1 2011, 11:59 PM
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an uncanny otter
post Aug 2 2011, 12:08 AM
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I have to work from 4-9 pm tomorrow. If I miss any good storms, I'm gonna be mad! I work on all the good storm days dry.gif
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bwfan
post Aug 2 2011, 08:19 PM
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Looks like a bust - heading into SE Michigan. Par for the course with these MCS of late.
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travis3000
post Aug 2 2011, 08:33 PM
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This year has been exceptionally quiet for storms in South/Central Ontario. I know SW Ontario has had a few decent storms but I think this area usually sees more than this year. Up here in the Alliston/Barrie region, it's been very quiet this year. Maybe 2-3 severe thunderstorm events so far this season and we are already into August. It seems that all the thunderstorms miss our area.


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an uncanny otter
post Aug 2 2011, 08:37 PM
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There's still a chance for some severe activity for Essex and Chatham-Kent tonight. I'm thinking we've got a shot at some strong storms ~3 am.

Concerned about instability, however. It was cloudy here all day, and we've had a few rounds of light showers which will surely lessen the strength of the storms. We still have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place, so I'm staying cautiously optimistic.

Not nearly as widespread as anticipated - storms look to be staying in the US for the most part.
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tml78
post Aug 2 2011, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Aug 2 2011, 09:37 PM) *
There's still a chance for some severe activity for Essex and Chatham-Kent tonight. I'm thinking we've got a shot at some strong storms ~3 am.

Concerned about instability, however. It was cloudy here all day, and we've had a few rounds of light showers which will surely lessen the strength of the storms. We still have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place, so I'm staying cautiously optimistic.

Not nearly as widespread as anticipated - storms look to be staying in the US for the most part.



looks like most of the rain is drying up before it makes it was to the GTA.

Will this trend continue the rest of the night??

or will we finally get some much needed rain for the GTA???
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bwfan
post Aug 2 2011, 08:55 PM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Aug 2 2011, 09:37 PM) *
There's still a chance for some severe activity for Essex and Chatham-Kent tonight. I'm thinking we've got a shot at some strong storms ~3 am.

Concerned about instability, however. It was cloudy here all day, and we've had a few rounds of light showers which will surely lessen the strength of the storms. We still have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place, so I'm staying cautiously optimistic.

Not nearly as widespread as anticipated - storms look to be staying in the US for the most part.

Latest lightning trends shows all activity well into SW lower Michigan. None in SW Ontario at the moment. Cells are slowly blossoming off lake Mich. I anticipate light to moderate rain showers here in London though nothing severe rolleyes.gif

Mother nature...prove me wrong tongue.gif
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bwfan
post Aug 2 2011, 09:03 PM
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Please push east some! Detroit latest forecast update...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
INTO THE PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASINGLY INTENSE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY FOR PTK/DTW/DET...BY
LATE EVENING (02Z AND BEYOND) AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.


Starting to materialize
Attached File  inmsirmi_.gif ( 42.94K ) Number of downloads: 0
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an uncanny otter
post Aug 2 2011, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(tml78 @ Aug 2 2011, 09:50 PM) *
looks like most of the rain is drying up before it makes it was to the GTA.

Will this trend continue the rest of the night??

or will we finally get some much needed rain for the GTA???
I could see the GTA getting 5-10 mm for tonight, possibly 15 mm if there is an embedded non-severe thunderstorm. Not a downpour by any means, but beneficial, to say the least. My 2 cents.
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an uncanny otter
post Aug 2 2011, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(bwfan @ Aug 2 2011, 10:03 PM) *
Please push east some! Detroit latest forecast update...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
INTO THE PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASINGLY INTENSE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY FOR PTK/DTW/DET...BY
LATE EVENING (02Z AND BEYOND) AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.


Starting to materialize
Attached File  inmsirmi_.gif ( 42.94K ) Number of downloads: 0
Those storms just north of Muskegon interest me - if they maintain strength, parts of SW Ontario could be in for some strong storms.

The cells just north of Chicago have several Tornado Warnings attached to them. FWIW.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Aug 2 2011, 09:09 PM
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travis3000
post Aug 2 2011, 09:43 PM
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Chicago is getting insane storms this year!


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http://scglweather.blogspot.com/

Exclusive Southern Ontario Weather Blog

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bwfan
post Aug 2 2011, 09:43 PM
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http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/

Lightning rolling in live right now - cool!
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bwfan
post Aug 2 2011, 09:45 PM
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http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chica...am=wrigleyville in HD with sound.
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tml78
post Aug 2 2011, 10:15 PM
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QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Aug 2 2011, 10:07 PM) *
I could see the GTA getting 5-10 mm for tonight, possibly 15 mm if there is an embedded non-severe thunderstorm. Not a downpour by any means, but beneficial, to say the least. My 2 cents.



I hope your right.. because looks like everything is dissapating.
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ottawasnowstorm
post Aug 2 2011, 11:25 PM
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Looks like these storms are all gonna miss Ottawa and eastern ontario.
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an uncanny otter
post Aug 3 2011, 01:07 PM
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Unfortunately, not the storms I was hoping for. Cloud debris and a few rounds of light rain really helped to suck the energy out of these storms, so that by the time the main line came, it consisted only of heavy rain. I'm not even sure if we had any thunder or lightning at all.

Fortunately, we received a good 25 mm of rain. I can't remember the last time I remember seeing the grass so lush and green heading into August.
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Cre47
post Aug 5 2011, 10:36 PM
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Didn't want to add another thread, but right now there is a really nasty line that is plowing through the Saguenay region as of now. Sounds a bit like a bow echo, I know it is broken up a bit on the northern flank, but it looks to have some damaging wind for sure.
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