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> Invest 92L, Tropical Fomation Development Level: Medium - 30%
Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Aug 10 2011, 10:19 PM
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Aug 11 2011, 12:37 AM
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Thoughts on 92L:
Attached Image

Invest 92L continues to be a rather large, disorganized area of disturbed weather to the west of the Cape Verdes. Right now there are only subtle signs of mid level rotation, however there is some low level vorticity pooling with 92L, and in a smaller area than last night, possibly showing that the system has detached from the ITCZ and is trying to consolidate.

92L is currently surrounded by a good amount of dry air/SAL, however the amount of strato-cumulus evident on satellite imagery is less than yesterday, possibly indicating the SAL/Dry air has diminished some around the large system. 92L is under an upper level anti-cyclone, which is limiting wind shear over the cyclone and promoting good outflow in both the northern and southern quadrants. This will promote further deep convection and minimize dry air intrusions.
Attached Image

92L is fairly far north for how far east it is, at 13-14N, and is on the southern side of a large high pressure centered near the Azores. Ridging is strong north of the Greater Antilles west towards the Gulf of Mexico; however a weakness in ridging is clearly evident near 50W. Even if 92L follows the low level steering currents, it will slowly turn more towards the right, and might already be doing so slowly as it is gaining latitude as it moves west-northwest.
Attached Image

The 0z GFS shows 92L (western feature on this image) remaining near the upper level anti-cyclone over the coming days as it moves off towards the WNW, and indicates the potential exists for continued good outflow over the coming days.
Attached Image
The 12z Euro also slowly decreases the dry air/SAL around 92L over the coming days until by 3-4 days out, when the invest is a well defined pouch with no significant dry air around it as it approaches the northern Lesser Antilles.

With this said however, the GFS/Euro are both not particularly bullish on development prospects over the coming days. Both of the models keep 92L as a trackable feature, but do not show development for at least 72 hours, at which point both models attempt to develop 92L into a relatively weak TC.

With this said, given low shear and good outflow but dry air which may hamper convection somewhat but should decrease gradually over the coming days, 92L should continue to slowly organize. However, visible images from this morning and current IR images reveal a rather large gyre with no organized/dominant LLC (although visible loops revealed some low level eddies spinning around Wednesday morning). This means 92L still needs to organize a good bit before becoming a tropical cyclone, and I still think genesis chances before Saturday are at about 30%. However, there seems to be a better than 50/50 chance of tropical cyclone chances shortly thereafter as dry air decreases and upper level conditions remain quite favorable for development.

Given what will likely be a slow development over the next few days of 92L, an immediate recurve probably wont recurve. Although subtropical ridging will be strongest over the eastern Atlantic, there will be no large trough over the western Atlantic until about day 5, when both the GFS/ECM show a slow moving upper trough moving off the east coast. This will likely recurve whatever 92L develops into east of the US coast as it will move off the coast well before 92L approaches the US.
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Torontoweather
post Aug 11 2011, 08:53 AM
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00z GFS peak strength:


1008mb.


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Torontoweather
post Aug 11 2011, 09:00 AM
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06z GFS peak strength:

1008mb.

Also, though:

1004mb.

Almost directly over Bermuda:


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jdrenken
post Aug 11 2011, 02:11 PM
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Bad spot for ASCAT pass...

Ascending


Descending


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The Snowman
post Aug 11 2011, 03:40 PM
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An Emily wanna-be. Notice the exposed center and main convection to the east.
Hour 96 of GFS.

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Aug 11 2011, 03:41 PM
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The Snowman
post Aug 11 2011, 08:06 PM
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500 mb
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2014 Severe Weather Season
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Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

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2013-2014: 69.5"
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Torontoweather
post Aug 11 2011, 08:36 PM
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18z GFS peak strength:


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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Aug 12 2011, 12:40 PM
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92L is looking much better on visible and convectional IR satellite loops this afternoon, with one consolidated area of convection with a distinct mid level rotation evident.
Attached Image

While extremely grainy, the most recent microwave image does not show conclusive evidence of any kind of surface circulation yet. It also does not show a particularly large area of deep convection, and ASCAT from this morning just missed the system to the west it appears, but does not show conclusive evidence of anything other than an open wave it this point either:
Attached Image

In addition, 92L, per shear analysis, has moved north of the upper level anti-cyclone it was under and is being impacted by about 20 knots of shear along with some (but not severe) SAL:
Attached Image

Low level vorticity is also rather weak with this system, which will make it difficult for a surface circulation to spin up extremely fast in the short term.

Attached Image

However, the 12z GFS shows the system developing rather rapidly in the short term, and shows a nice anti-cyclonic upper level wind pattern around the invest developing in a couple of days. This should favor gradual development.

The GFS is the only model that in its most recent run spun up 92L extremely fast. The 0z CMC eventually develops it into a powerful system, but not for 4-5 days. The 0z Euro did not show much if any development.

Given the current lack of low level circulation and some shear/dry air, I do not think this will develop extremely fast. However, a much more consolidated area of convection along with what appears to be a nice mid level vortex developing in combination with gradually decreasing shear/dry air over the weekend should make future development likely, although the reliable global models are not in agreement on when and to what extent this development will occur.

Based on the above combination of factors, the NHC may increase probability of tropical cyclone formation to 50% by the 2pm or 8pm update, but I would see no reason to rush this to cherry until a surface circulation has formed or appears to be forming.

Although the NAO has finally gone away (or is in the process of doing so), model ensembles continue to show below normal heights over Alaska and off the western US coast over the next week. This forces a ridge over the central US and continues to favor more transient troughs over the eastern US and off the east coast, meaning timing would have to be perfect for one of these Cape Verde storms to make it to the US coastline.
Attached Image

The 0z ECM ensembles show this well, with a trough moving off the east coast in 4-5 days. At this point it is likely the 92L will be some sort of tropical cyclone north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas, and in a position to be picked up by this trough which will extend fairly far south. This makes it highly probable that 92L will recurve off the US east coast, Id give it about a 98% shot at occurring, especially given its current latitude.

This system may come close to Bermuda in about 5-6 days if it evolves as expected.

This post has been edited by OHweather2: Aug 12 2011, 12:42 PM
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jdrenken
post Aug 12 2011, 06:43 PM
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The OPC's thoughts...

96hr


Take a guess of what to expect with this 500mb...


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jdrenken
post Aug 13 2011, 07:24 AM
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QUOTE
1. A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 20 MPH.


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jdrenken
post Aug 13 2011, 04:02 PM
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jdrenken
post Aug 13 2011, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 13 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-074

2. SUSPECT AREA #2 (92L...SOUTH OF BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 15/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 15/0900Z
D. 30.0N 64.5W
E. 15/1130Z TO 15/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION FOR
16/0000Z NEAR 34.0N 64.0W IF SECOND SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


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jdrenken
post Aug 14 2011, 08:55 AM
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QUOTE
AL, 92, 2011081400, , BEST, 0, 216N, 566W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2011081406, , BEST, 0, 223N, 580W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 228N, 590W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 65, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,




QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN


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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Aug 14 2011, 09:49 AM
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The Azores Wrecking Ball

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Simple... Powerful....Crushing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atla...g8dlm2java.html



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jdrenken
post Aug 14 2011, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(Doorman @ Aug 14 2011, 09:49 AM) *
The Azores Wrecking Ball

Tip: Punch Out the second to last image box for a clean movie

Simple... Powerful....Crushing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atla...g8dlm2java.html


Good loop.


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jdrenken
post Aug 14 2011, 06:28 PM
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QUOTE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 14 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

2. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 15/1800Z A. 16/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 15/1500Z C. 16/0230Z
D. 29.0N 62.0W D. 32.5N 63.5W
E. 15/1730Z TO 15/2230Z E. 16/0530Z TO 16/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


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jdrenken
post Aug 14 2011, 08:41 PM
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It's a work in progress!

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