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> Post-Tropical Cyclone Katia, 11AM AST: 80MPH - 954MB - ENE @ 53MPH
MAC292OH10
post Aug 27 2011, 07:34 PM
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something smells fishy...

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al922011.inves

QUOTE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108280025
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011082800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 195W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


QUOTE
Attached Image

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.


12Z ECMWF @240hr

Attached Image
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HassayWx2306
post Aug 27 2011, 07:36 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Aug 27 2011, 08:34 PM) *
something smells fishy...

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al922011.inves
12Z ECMWF @240hr

Attached Image


how big and bad is that at @hr240 Looks amazingly huge and strong could you tell me?


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ncgator15
post Aug 27 2011, 08:00 PM
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QUOTE(HassayWx2306 @ Aug 27 2011, 08:36 PM) *
how big and bad is that at @hr240 Looks amazingly huge and strong could you tell me?

In that picture it's a strong Cat 4. Roughly 150mph winds. Of course its 10 day's out, and considering that the models couldn't predict Irene's intensity just 48h from landfall and that there is absolutely NO data for models to use, we should focus on the storm surviving the next couple of days.

Otherwise, it's defiantly fun to think about. smile.gif

This post has been edited by ncgator15: Aug 27 2011, 08:06 PM
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MAC292OH10
post Aug 27 2011, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(ncgator15 @ Aug 27 2011, 09:00 PM) *
In that picture it's a strong Cat 4. Roughly 150mph winds. Of course its 10 day's out, and considering that the models couldn't predict Irene's intensity just 48h from landfall and that there is absolutely NO data for models to use, we should focus on the storm surviving the next couple of days.

Otherwise, it's defiantly fun to think about. smile.gif


those winds are at the 850mb height level, not surface...

models show the system forming under an upper-level anticyclone centered over the eastern tropical ATL, although there is shear from a lingering TUTT(axis centered over PR) draped across 20W(that should lift and fill with time)...SAL is not near as severe as it has been, 92L has a nice 850mb vort associated with it and is already showing that it is a large circulation on the MIMIC-TPW...

granted it is out in the extended range and data is limited, but this system has plenty of model support(ECMWF/GFS/GFSE/NOGAPS/GGEM), its doesn't appear to be a 1 cycle wonder or anomaly...

GFSE @240(996mb)
Attached Image


Attached Image

Attached Image


hard to see the vort since it right along 10N, which is a tad south for CV waves...
Attached Image



Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Aug 27 2011, 09:12 PM
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ncgator15
post Aug 27 2011, 09:19 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Aug 27 2011, 10:07 PM) *
those winds are at the 850mb height level, not surface...

models show the system forming under an upper-level anticyclone centered over the eastern tropical ATL, although there is shear from a lingering TUTT(axis centered over PR) draped across 20W(that should lift and fill with time)...SAL is not near as severe as it has been, 92L has a nice 850mb vort associated with it and is already showing that it is a large circulation on the MIMIC-TPW...

granted it is out in the extended range and data is limited, but this system has plenty of model support(ECMWF/GFS/GFSE/NOGAPS/GGEM), its doesn't appear to be a 1 cycle wonder or anomaly...


blink.gif Oops. My bad.

Your right about the models. It's rare for them to agree so early on. The next few runs will be worth watching.
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Snow____
post Aug 27 2011, 10:11 PM
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I'm looking forward to tracking this one too.


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Illinois blizzar...
post Aug 27 2011, 10:57 PM
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Current models
Attached Image


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Illinois blizzar...
post Aug 28 2011, 01:15 AM
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Up too a 30%
Attached Image
QUOTE
1. A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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Regionrat
post Aug 28 2011, 05:17 AM
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What does TUTT stand for?


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idecline
post Aug 28 2011, 05:28 AM
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Upgraded to a 30% orange....when I looked at the UV satellite on Accuwx this Invest seemed to have a lot of spin and good air intake as it came off the Coast of Africa....it seems that it certainly has a chance considering the lower SAL and seemingly favorable environment...the question is how far across the Atlantic will it traverse and will it be an open or closed wave?


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The Day After To...
post Aug 28 2011, 07:25 AM
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Now up to 40%

QUOTE
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Source

This post has been edited by The Day After Tommorow: Aug 28 2011, 08:41 AM


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clindner00
post Aug 28 2011, 08:29 AM
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Still 10-15 days away but looks like this could be the next potential threat to the east coast. Last 2 runs of the Euro have been in the 920's and northeast of the Bahamas while the GFS wants to make it a fish storm. Where it goes, nobody knows! hahaha
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clindner00
post Aug 28 2011, 08:30 AM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Aug 28 2011, 08:25 AM) *
Now up to 40%
Source

BTW.....that is the wrong discussion for this storm. I'll see if I can post it.
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clindner00
post Aug 28 2011, 08:32 AM
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Up to 40%

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Source is NHC. I'm not sure how to link it.
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alfoman
post Aug 28 2011, 09:13 AM
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EURO showing a storm nearing the east coast in 10 days time blink.gif


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The Snowman
post Aug 28 2011, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(alfoman @ Aug 28 2011, 09:13 AM) *
EURO showing a storm nearing the east coast in 10 days time blink.gif


Attached Image

At that point, unless it goes NNE, I think the 9/11 anniversary might be rained/stormed on.
10 days out, though, i'll take that with a fair sized grain of salt.


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My2Sons
post Aug 28 2011, 10:05 AM
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Given how south this invest is .. it should make a run toward the NC coast before fading away to the NNE/NE. Possibly similar to a Hurricane Earl track .. the more typical Cape Verde storm track.
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beninbaltimore
post Aug 28 2011, 10:06 AM
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GFS 0z ensembles





source


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Phased Vort
post Aug 28 2011, 10:13 AM
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ECWMF is bringing this invest pretty far west, past Bermudas longitude, and to the north of the Bahamas, as it interprets that a possible weakness in the CAR will not be so big.

What is fishy is that it shows a 925mb hurricane, tracking WNW towards the US, even though there's a weakness on the CAR and the hurricane itself has such a low pressure. On the real world, that would more than likely imply a recurve probably before it passas Bermuda's longitude.

However, since the 00Z ECMWF shows a pretty strong CAR/EAR( 1030mb), actually extending its southern southern circulation isobars pretty nicely all the way into the SE CONUS while a ridge is developing over the Great lakes and towards SE Canada and NW Atlantic, the run may not be that messed, as they way it was portrayed, the weakness could close off.


Here's the last frame, 10 days out:


Attached Image



Forecast:



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Removed_Member_NYsnowlover_*
post Aug 28 2011, 10:19 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 28 2011, 11:13 AM) *
ECWMF is bringing this invest pretty far west, past Bermudas longitude, and to the north of the Bahamas, as it interprets that a possible weakness in the CAR will not be so big.

What is fishy is that it shows a 925mb hurricane, tracking WNW towards the US, even though there's a weakness on te CAR and the hurricane itself has such a low pressure. On the real world, that would more than likely imply a recurve probably before it passas Bermuda's longitude.

However, since the 00Z ECMWF shows a pretty strong CAR/EAR( 1030mb), actually extending its southern southern circulation isobars pretty nicely all the way into the SE CONUS while a ridge is developing over the Great lakes and towards SE Canada and NW Atlantic, the run may not be that messed, as they way it was portrayed, the weakness could close off.
Here's the last frame, 10 days out:


Attached Image



I am nervous because after Irene, a lot of people will not take this one seriously.
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