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> Stock Picks, I need a score...
CMeyers
post Apr 12 2012, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE(Maw @ Mar 27 2012, 11:13 AM) *
GSS is the stock. Bought at 1.83. Paw said it swings from about 1.60 - 2.10. He'll sell when it heads upward and buy when it swings back down. We're ready for the ride!!!!!

Did you guys manage to sell when it hit its little peak at $1.97 last week? Down to $1.60 again today and I don't know that it'll bounce back. But, if you did sell I'm assuming you bought again trying to keep playing the range? I'm curious to see if the bottom end of the range will hold or if it'll chase right through it.


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aaastinkie
post Apr 13 2012, 01:48 PM
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Gold is down $20 today, I don't even want to look at my account anymore........I need KITD to hit the paydirt......so I can buy more DMND...... rolleyes.gif ohmy.gif


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jacksonville
post Apr 25 2012, 11:56 AM
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How am I going to get rich if you guys don't help?
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CMeyers
post Apr 25 2012, 12:21 PM
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QUOTE(jacksonville @ Apr 25 2012, 12:56 PM) *
How am I going to get rich if you guys don't help?

Start buying lotto tickets! tongue.gif

I'll post my thoughts on the market later this afternoon. I've been insanely busy lately. Promotion at work, closing on a house and a rather hectic rest-of-life.


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Maw
post Apr 25 2012, 12:23 PM
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QUOTE(CMeyers @ Apr 12 2012, 02:19 PM) *
Did you guys manage to sell when it hit its little peak at $1.97 last week? Down to $1.60 again today and I don't know that it'll bounce back. But, if you did sell I'm assuming you bought again trying to keep playing the range? I'm curious to see if the bottom end of the range will hold or if it'll chase right through it.


We are holding out (as of today)! It'll come back. biggrin.gif


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Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body.

Rather it should be to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand and the Good Book in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming "WOO-HOO what a ride!"
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CMeyers
post Apr 25 2012, 01:09 PM
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I guess it's been about a month since I last posted my thoughts so here goes...

In the last month there has been a lot of decent news and also a large share of bad news. The net impact of that is that the markets have been relatively flat. Europe is still a mess, US housing data is still pretty bad (though improving a bit) and global economic numbers are a little weaker than some would have hoped for. On the bright side, jobs figures haven't been getting worse lately, credit seems to be getting a little easier to find, inflation continues to be relatively low on a macro-scale and earnings numbers are coming in strong.

We're seeing a bit of a push-pull effect on the markets from bad European news and good earnings reports. Spain is back in recession, Britain is back in recession and France is running the risk of electing a socialist president. Bond yields in Spain have sky-rocketed, along with Italy and even German Bund yields are riding up fairly sharply lately. Not a good sign at all. Basically means investors require a higher interest rate to entice them to purchase government debt. On the other hand, US earnings have been quite strong. EPS growth has been about 7% last I saw this morning which is quite a lot better than anticipated.

Speaking of earnings; AAPL (Apple) absolutely blew away estimates yesterday. Which I find entertaining since they always do and yet nobody ever expects it. And, considering its such a massive company you'd think people would have a better estimate of revenue/earnings. Regardless there was heavy pressure on AAPL the last couple weeks, almost a 15% drop of the highs of $640. I stayed with it, didn't expect it to drop below $600 and by the time it did I didn't think it was worth selling. Jumped 9% on earnings after the bell last night and today. Back over $600 again. It's a great stock to own. Even at this price I think. I continue to contend that $750 is an easy target for the next couple months. Whether we see a mild pullback off the earnings jump remains to be seen over the next couple days. Last quarter it basically just took a straight line up from the earnings bounce but there wasn't near as much negative sentiment going into earnings last time. Bottom line: I think you should own Apple. And, even if there is a slight drop from todays earnings bounce it shouldn't be too significant. I think if you were to buy AAPL at the $600 level here you would do very well over the rest of the year.

As far as stocks I like and places to invest; names like CBI, an industrial cyclical, (even after fairly weak earnings yesterday) or MOS (Mosaic, a potash producer) as far as materials stocks go. SLW (Silver Wheaton) or EXK (Endeavour) (both silver names that have been hit very hard this year) are starting to get attractive too. CNX (Consol) (a coal producer) ahead of earnings tomorrow is looking quite good to me. If they beat earnings I bet that stock makes a big run. And, I think a miss has been partially priced in already so it might not take much of a hit if it misses. Unless it misses big. Coal's struggles have been well noted which have kept coal producers fairly weak (CNX, ANR...)

Might want to look towards banks a little, though I'm still leery of how well they'll do over the near term. I think the market continues to go relatively sideways for a while and banks don't often perform real well in those situations. BAC (Bank of America) has fallen significantly as I expected (I still wouldn't touch it) and other banks haven't done real well either. If you do want to invest in financials I like FAS as an ETF that performs very well when banks and other financials do. It's a 3x leveraged fund so the gains can be quite substantial, as well as the losses. Specific companies I like as far as financials go are KCG (Knight Capital Group) (had a nice move off earnings a couple days ago) and JPM (JP Morgan) and GS (Goldman Sachs) too along with PRU (Prudential) as an insurance company.

Other picks of mine include LEA (Lear corp, earnings coming in a couple days), NVMI (an Israeli semi-conductor), LIWA (an electrical component maker), DXPE (an industrial supplier) and USHS (custom home building products). Might want to look at a healthcare company like GTS (very strong upside though also quite risky). VLO (Valero petrol) looks good to me. As far as food goes maybe a company like BG (Bunge) or DRI (especially if the economy picks up).

Continues to be a stock pickers market so you can make money, or lose money while the market moves sideways.



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CMeyers
post Apr 25 2012, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE(Maw @ Apr 25 2012, 01:23 PM) *
We are holding out (as of today)! It'll come back. biggrin.gif


Good luck.


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aaastinkie
post Apr 27 2012, 05:27 PM
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Somebody's got 30k of my money and I want it back...... ohmy.gif rolleyes.gif


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aaastinkie
post May 3 2012, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE(aaastinkie @ Apr 27 2012, 06:27 PM) *
Somebody's got 30k of my money and I want it back...... ohmy.gif rolleyes.gif

They are still taking more, KITD down $2 today and still dropping.......Gold down....Come on DMND...you're my only hope.... ohmy.gif


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Maw
post May 3 2012, 12:54 PM
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GSS at 1.39. Help me, Rhonda!

Ah, it's only money...

cool.gif


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Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body.

Rather it should be to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand and the Good Book in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming "WOO-HOO what a ride!"
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CMeyers
post May 3 2012, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE(Maw @ May 3 2012, 01:54 PM) *
GSS at 1.39. Help me, Rhonda!

Ah, it's only money...

cool.gif

I believe they're scheduled to release earnings early next week. You might want to see if you get either a bounce prior to earnings (unlikely in my opinion) or a bounce after strong earnings. I don't think either are likely but that would be your chance to make some of that money back. Sometimes stocks that are in range-bound or quasi-range-bound patterns prior to earnings seem to bounce towards the higher end of that range before earnings. It's almost as if they end up pricing in surprising earnings prior to the report. I've noticed this occasionally in the last couple years. The odds of strong earnings for GSS are pretty slim though I think, so your best bet might be a bounce prior to the report. If you get the chance I'd sell into the earnings if the price gets up close to where you bought it. Just my opinion.


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aaastinkie
post May 4 2012, 05:02 AM
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Remember a short while ago when we were making money...... rolleyes.gif
I got a margin call last night......darn KITD....... ohmy.gif
You're right MAW, glad I paid cash for the new boat..... laugh.gif


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aaastinkie
post May 4 2012, 09:49 AM
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Sold some DMND to hold KITD just now, paid off all of my margin, come on warm weather, I need to float around on a remote lake and have a cold one....... rolleyes.gif


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CMeyers
post May 4 2012, 02:00 PM
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QUOTE(aaastinkie @ May 4 2012, 06:02 AM) *
Remember a short while ago when we were making money...... rolleyes.gif
I got a margin call last night......darn KITD....... ohmy.gif
You're right MAW, glad I paid cash for the new boat..... laugh.gif

Yikes. What do you like about KITD?

Nice thing about selling DMND right now is that you'll probably be able to get back in with no issue before or during any good news bounce that comes in the next couple months.


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CMeyers
post May 16 2012, 11:59 AM
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I've been kind of treading water for the last few weeks here. I don't think I'm either up or down more than 5%. Not positive of the exact number, haven't added everything up across the various portfolios. I do that at the end of the month.

I'm getting more negative as far as market outlook goes. Charts starting to look rather bearish for the coming months. I didn't like the S&P dropping below and staying below 1340 the last few days. If it doesn't move back over that level I'm going to be doing even more repositioning holdings with the expectation of a 15-20% fall in the major averages. I already sold FAS (3x bullish financial etf) in exchange for its inverse (FAZ). I did that about two weeks ago and was rather pleased with early results and then JP Morgan went and announced their 2 billion+ trading loss which sent financials down even more. Up 20% in the FAZ in two weeks and if the market does take a solid leg down would probably make a lot more. If the S&P can't regain footing over 1340 I'm going to be greatly expanding my position in FAZ over the next days/weeks. I think banks are in for a rough summer even if the overall market doesn't drop heavily so it's probably a good bet in any case.

Also planning on selling some other holdings in order to purchase a 2x inverse S&P fund (SDS). Already sold CBI (Chicago Bridge&Iron) this morning and planning on closing positions in LEA (LEAR corp) a few others in the next couple days. Those unfortunately will be closed at a loss. Lost about 15% on CBI and roughly the same on LEA as it stands currently.

I guess I'll briefly mention a few others that I hold and still like even if we head into a bear market for a stretch:

MOS - Mosaic should see a push upwards as the summer goes on which is when their demand typically spikes. Hopefully still a solid 25%+ upside to this one in the next several months

CHTP - Still sitting on this currently at a 40% loss after bad FDA ruling. Slowly melting upward the last couple weeks and there should be a new FDA ruling on their drug sometime in early June I think was the goal. If they get a positive ruling the stock triples. If not then it probably fades back a bit again. If I didn't already own it I wouldn't buy it, but I do, so I'm playing the waiting game...

DXPE and USHS - Both very good companies that I think will see strong upside over the coming months.

AAPL - Probably will stay flat or fade a little in the next couple months before a major push higher come fall when they release the new IPhone. Too good of a company to get real cute with the stock and try buying and selling it all the time with news.

DMND - Again a company that I'm holding because I'm sitting on a loss. In one portfolio I control I'm down about 30% in DMND (bought around the $30 mark), in another I'm up about 20% (bought at roughly the bottom near $20). Redone financial statements due in June and I still like the company if this whole accounting mess can actually be behind them. Major upside if things come back good and clear. If it turns out that the restated financials are really really bad (indicating much worse accounting fraud than suspected) then the stock might drop again and I'll bail in a heartbeat.

HLF - I bought it a couple days ago after it got the *bleep* beat out of it by not-so-good earnings and David Einhorn questioning the validity of the business model. He's due to speak today at a major investment conference and if he doesn't negatively mention HLF (basically if he doesn't say he's short the stock) then I think Herbalife gets a big pop. Could be a big gainer. Probably couldn't drop too much even if he is short it, it's already dropped 45% from its high...

CNX - Consol energy is in pretty bad shape thanks to terrible energy prices and demand. I was planning on selling a couple days ago, but completely forgot about it. Sticky-notes might do me good sometime laugh.gif So when it dropped a solid 15% in the last two days I kinda said "screw it, I'm going to sit on it and wait til prices rebound this fall".

Bottom line is that I think the risk for a 15%+ decline in major averages is increasing rapidly and as a result am working on transitioning my holdings to a more bearish portfolio. Holding TVIX and FAZ and will be buying SDS within the next few days probably. Depending on how the markets fare the next week or so I'll be increasing positions in all three of those.


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CMeyers
post May 16 2012, 12:00 PM
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QUOTE(Maw @ May 3 2012, 01:54 PM) *
GSS at 1.39. Help me, Rhonda!

Ah, it's only money...

cool.gif

Hopefully you got out before the $.10 drop on earnings? Probably not one you want to wait for a potential bounce on, charts and fundamentals still look brutal for GSS. At least to me...

The one good thing to be said for it is that the market for Gold itself is looking up to me. I'm thinking about buying the GLD (Gold etf). Gold miners have been hit harder than gold but most of them don't look as bad as GSS. However, reading their earnings release a bit closer I see that they're predicting a move to profitability in the next several quarters. So, maybe there isn't a whole lot more to hit the bottom and then you'll start seeing some gains. I don't know. GSS isn't the miner that I would choose...

This post has been edited by CMeyers: May 16 2012, 12:04 PM


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aaastinkie
post May 17 2012, 12:48 PM
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All I have to say is has anyone seen my missing 40K??
Are we having fun yet??.... rolleyes.gif ohmy.gif


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If you like snow so much come shovel me out!!
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CMeyers
post May 18 2012, 09:25 AM
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Just as a quick reminder for all investors out there-

DON'T BUY FACEBOOK TODAY AFTER IT OPENS FOR TRADING!!!

If you really think it's a good value, then wait a few days or weeks before things settle down to decide if it's a good buy.



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aaastinkie
post May 22 2012, 10:44 PM
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QUOTE(CMeyers @ May 18 2012, 10:25 AM) *
Just as a quick reminder for all investors out there-

DON'T BUY FACEBOOK TODAY AFTER IT OPENS FOR TRADING!!!

If you really think it's a good value, then wait a few days or weeks before things settle down to decide if it's a good buy.

OH......NOW I READ THIS........bought 650 @ 34.29......probably DUMP it today before it goes to $18.... ohmy.gif


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CMeyers
post May 23 2012, 05:53 AM
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QUOTE(aaastinkie @ May 22 2012, 11:44 PM) *
OH......NOW I READ THIS........bought 650 @ 34.29......probably DUMP it today before it goes to $18.... ohmy.gif

I would. There's still a lot of downward pressure on the stock, probably for the forseeable future too. More shares will be coming to the market, the overall economy is weak, especially overseas, and there's no real news until earnings are released in a couple months. I don't know how low it will go, can't guarantee it won't pop either though.

I wouldn't buy it until the $20 range which I think would be very attractive. Hard not to like the company, the potential growth and the overall upside to it. Beautifully priced IPO in my opinion. Most of the grumbling and whining is from a bunch of greedy pricks who only bought it because they thought they could make a quick 20% on a bounce from the open. As soon as there were some glitches and missteps along with a lack of a pop everyone started selling immediately. And that continued the last couple days.

$38 was roughly 80 times forward earnings, I think 40 or 50 times would be much more reasonable and therefore am looking for $20-24 as my entrance point. If it never reaches that then I probably won't own facebook until earnings season when I'll look at it again.

Opened up a short on gold monday, thinking it'll probably drop to the $1525 range before it starts moving up again. Little bit of support between $1525-1530. Increased my positions in SDS and FAZ yesterday morning as the rally was starting to tail off. Today should be a good day.


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