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> Sept. 4-10, 2011 Tropical Impacts on Temperature/Frontal Patterns, How will Lee (or Katia) impact the track of cooler air?
Hertz
post Sep 2 2011, 08:54 PM
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This is a transfer (per moderator request) of a discussion started on the Lee thread in the Tropical forum:

I'm starting to get a little nervous.

Recent operational runs of the GFS, particularily today's 12Z and 18Z runs, have continually trended the track of Tropical Storm Lee further to the north and west, and now rip next week's cool airmass, expected by NWS forecasts to initially arrive as early as Sunday evening (4th), back west of my area after Tuesday, then cut it off for several days before resuming a more normal flow pattern around the weekend of the 10th-11th (hence the current end date of this thread). 850 MB temps go back up to +15C or so and it keeps trending even warmer. I really want this cooler air as it was almost 95 in my area today.

While this cold front should be a big one for finally giving the Southern Plains a break from their heat wave, I don't want to be left in the hot/sticky air either! The other models, on their latest runs, show as follows:

18Z NAM is an outlier, making Lee essentially a progressive wave along the front and the low's all the way into Kentucky by early Tuesday. Discounting this for now.

Operational 12Z ECMWF has a hint of the operational GFS idea but a little more generous with keeping it cooler. (Max 850mb temps 1 or 2C cooler with cutoff a little further east.)

Operational 12Z GEM and Ukmet are cooler and further east.

Ensemble means of GFS, ECMWF, and NAEFS are trending westward a bit but still well to the east of the operational GFS/ECMWF, especially from midweek onwards. SREF is on the more westward scenario that I don't want, though it only goes through early Tuesday.

So, not necessarily for my area alone but for the entire region affected in general, where do you think cool and warm airmasses will be located next week and do you favor a cutoff further east or west in general? If you have reasoning feel free to include it in your post(s) as well. Any thoughts would be welcome smile.gif, as patterns of model chaos like this, especially when they put cooler airmasses following hot spells in jeopardy, really get on my nerves and maybe this thread could at least be the place to post your take on the latest models as they come out and maybe even come to more of a consensus view of what will happen.


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Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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Hertz
post Sep 2 2011, 11:33 PM
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Model data would be appreciated here also, in addition to personal thoughts on how the system will ultimately move and affect the path of cooler air (as the thread title implies). It makes me superstitious to look at the models myself right now. Yes it's irrational but every time I've looked at it myself today the change was for the worse and not the better.


The NHC seems to want to yield to the deterministic models (18Z ones at least)...adjusting its track considerably further to the north...NO!!!, that is not what I want to see. I hope it is slower or further east as ensemble means show. Can the ensembles have the best handle on things just one time?

I know that sometimes the 18Z runs have a warm bias, and the 00Z runs to follow moderate things out. But I'm really relying on that luck this time. I hope I can get it!

This post has been edited by Hertz: Sep 2 2011, 11:36 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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jdrenken
post Sep 3 2011, 08:18 AM
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We already have a thread dedicated to the cooling period for this region.


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