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> The LRC Thread 2011/2012, A New Year...A New Pattern
jdrenken
post Apr 9 2012, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(Joplinmet @ Apr 9 2012, 07:57 PM) *
I am glad you guys have done a lot of work. I have 48.3 day average on this years cycle. But remember I believe that we are much further along in the pattern than Gary does with his LRC. He believes the first cycle starts roughly around mid October. That simply isn't the case. All of my research backs this up and I have that stats back to 1943 that shows it. I assume b/c Gary taught Jeremy, that is his thinking as well. I never read his blog but I know a lot of you guys do b/c you guys are up in his region. It is to bad the winter sucked for all of us. We almost set record lows down here. We had the second least amount of snow in a winter in my area. Not what I wanted for a winter lover.


Just finished your blog and webcast. Good job on both and glad that we aren't that far in our thoughts despite being babies in the pattern!


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Joplinmet
post Apr 9 2012, 09:26 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 9 2012, 09:16 PM) *
Just finished your blog and webcast. Good job on both and glad that we aren't that far in our thoughts despite being babies in the pattern!


Oh, I am super impressed with all of you guys. I am super impressed you guys even want to learn this. Of the mets that I have shown the pattern to, most have a very hard time picking it up. They usually give up.
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jdrenken
post Apr 10 2012, 08:37 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 28 2012, 10:01 PM) *
Same thing will be coming in the first week of April except we won't see temps as below normal as they were in the first week of January.


First 9 days...


Attached File(s)
Attached File  April_1_9th.JPG ( 60.21K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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Gilbertfly
post Apr 13 2012, 12:39 PM
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QUOTE(Joplinmet @ Apr 9 2012, 09:26 PM) *
Oh, I am super impressed with all of you guys. I am super impressed you guys even want to learn this. Of the mets that I have shown the pattern to, most have a very hard time picking it up. They usually give up.


Quality core group here...they test the theory and themselves in a quite complimentary fashion! It's the best way to learn and improve forecasts, eh? Great input yourself Jop! Good stuff!

To the rest of the core group....absence was required as personal matters were attended to...family illnesses and additions to the family put the LRC in the backseat....

tough to jump in mid-stream for how in depth I like to get in regards to the LRC...but i shall enjoy the show and be ready for the next lap in the LRC world this fall! Keep up the great work...if anything i might be able to add some input from an "outsiders" perspective when it comes to better explaining where things are at within' the cycle....which can help propel better understanding for true "outsiders"...

Again, great work folks...i shall read back through the thread over the weekend as the wife and kids will be out of the house for a few days visiting family...and should allow for some quiet moments to dive in a bit!

take care and keep up the quality!
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 13 2012, 12:50 PM
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Does the LRC method show anything about the developing severe drought in the Northeast region? Some forecasts I've seen in March and even early this month kept saying that the dry conditions are no big deal, yet there is already a widespread drought, bigger than that of 2010, and the forecast for the next 1-2 weeks doesn't look encouraging in terms of precipitation.
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OSNW3
post Apr 13 2012, 03:12 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 13 2012, 11:50 AM) *
Does the LRC method show anything about the developing severe drought in the Northeast region? Some forecasts I've seen in March and even early this month kept saying that the dry conditions are no big deal, yet there is already a widespread drought, bigger than that of 2010, and the forecast for the next 1-2 weeks doesn't look encouraging in terms of precipitation.


A while back I posted this to you in the Long Range Summer thread.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1544087

Looking at the LRC trend for NYC (Central Park is where the data is from), it seems there are 3 distinct 'wet' periods in each cycle which last a few days. I would have to look at the actual surface data to know how much precip fell in each occurrence, but none the less, precipitation did fall on those days in previous cycles. AND, who knows, with the jet slowly backing into a similar place as October, perhaps the 'Halloween' Noreaster will return early May and dump some good precip.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/TempDFNYC1112.html

For an explanation of how the precipitation trend works, see the link below, and scroll down to where I state my bias. http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2012/04/accuw...-vs-lrc-25.html

After reading what I wrote one more time it seems I gave an awful lot of credential to the 'wet patterns' scattered about among the elongated drier spells... what do you see in the trends?!

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 13 2012, 03:13 PM


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OSNW3
post Apr 13 2012, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Apr 13 2012, 11:39 AM) *
Quality core group here...


I was just asking JD where you went. I hope things are well and you enjoy your time diving back into the LRC. Looking forward to your quality participation again!


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Gilbertfly
post Apr 13 2012, 03:35 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 13 2012, 03:15 PM) *
I was just asking JD where you went. I hope things are well and you enjoy your time diving back into the LRC. Looking forward to your quality participation again!



Thanks! I have some questions for ya'll...but perhaps i shall read through the thread first and see if they have been answered already....

cheers!
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jdrenken
post Apr 13 2012, 04:17 PM
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At work and can't go into deep specifics...but yet another decent sized system going to be located in the GOA. I remember the LRC gang stating that May would be active and it could very well continue. The constant clashing of the cold troughs that I've made the connection with and the warmth between will verify that.


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OSNW3
post Apr 13 2012, 10:37 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 13 2012, 03:17 PM) *
At work and can't go into deep specifics...but yet another decent sized system going to be located in the GOA. I remember the LRC gang stating that May would be active and it could very well continue. The constant clashing of the cold troughs that I've made the connection with and the warmth between will verify that.


Each time you bring up the GOA I reference the loops and try to pick up on the connection. I admit, it's a little difficult. They are fun to watch regardless. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/zlrc1112.html (side note: I will be adding user controls some day)


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WeatherMonger
post Apr 15 2012, 10:03 PM
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Never noticed SPC had a verification for their outlooks, but comparing 3/02 and 4/14 they did well. Can almost see a need for 2 high risk areas on 03/02 or one large one as 4/14 had. But yesterday's didn't materialize in the north. Might be irrelevant. Was just thinking ahead to what late May might will bring

March




April



And over the initial 2 areas


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OSNW3
post Apr 18 2012, 01:36 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 15 2012, 09:03 PM) *
Never noticed SPC had a verification for their outlooks, but comparing 3/02 and 4/14 they did well. Can almost see a need for 2 high risk areas on 03/02 or one large one as 4/14 had. But yesterday's didn't materialize in the north. Might be irrelevant. Was just thinking ahead to what late May might will bring


Gary, breaking it down.
http://lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com...g&Itemid=29


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WeatherMonger
post Apr 18 2012, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 18 2012, 01:36 PM) *


The next cycle definitely needs watching, mainly because it starts the "family camping/outdoor events" season.

I had mentioned after the 3/02 outbreak we didn't need another one, and unfortunately it happened albeit not nearly as deadly but deadly enough none the less. My reasoning for thinking it could happen was the fact it would occur in mid-April where it would seem more likely for everything to come together. Last year 4/27 cycled again in June which would seem colder air farther north and harder for things to come together. I may be way off on this, I know severe set-ups can exist in any month and do, but that's kind of my reasoning for thinking this one could go 3 "successful" cycles if you will. The end of May still seems like a very favorable seasonal time frame for things to meld, versus if it were set to occur in more of the "hot" season months.

This would be the one cycle that I hope it does not happen to the past 2's severity, too many families will be tented up for the weekend away from normal media coverage.

Again, I have no weather education so most of the things I say tend to be more what makes sense to me rather than technical specifics and such. I'm trying to learn though, should have started while I was still in school.
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jdrenken
post Apr 20 2012, 07:31 AM
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984mb in the Aleutians on the 22nd will match up with a system in the first week of May.
Attached File  22APR12_OPC_Pac.JPG ( 203.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


First week of May matches with first week of February and the week of the 21st of March.


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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2012, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 20 2012, 06:31 AM) *
First week of May matches with first week of February and the week of the 21st of March.


It certainly follows a similar route through the calendar! smile.gif

How about this? The Doug Heady flip? (give or take a day)

1/12 - ish http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20120112.html
2/26 - ish http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20120226.html
4/11 - ish http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20120412.html

I think this may qualify. What do you think? It is evident this comparison is the correct place in the cycle if you follow each of the instances back and forth several days. AHHHH. I am delusional now. smile.gif


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Joplinmet
post Apr 20 2012, 02:54 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 20 2012, 01:10 PM) *
It certainly follows a similar route through the calendar! smile.gif

How about this? The Doug Heady flip? (give or take a day)

1/12 - ish http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20120112.html
2/26 - ish http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20120226.html
4/11 - ish http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20120412.html

I think this may qualify. What do you think? It is evident this comparison is the correct place in the cycle if you follow each of the instances back and forth several days. AHHHH. I am delusional now. smile.gif


Great catch Josh. I will look at them closely here in just a bit. I just posted a blog. I saw you posted Garys blog. Again we are in different parts of the pattern. I don't think this past weekends severe weather outbreak was the outbreak of March 2nd and 3rd. That was the Feb 27th and 28th storm which also produced severe weather. And the severe weather matches up in the same spot and the right part of the pattern. I will look over the maps you posted. You guys are some serious researchers. I am going to make you all come work for me, lol. It will make my life easier.
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jdrenken
post Apr 20 2012, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(Joplinmet @ Apr 20 2012, 02:54 PM) *
Great catch Josh. I will look at them closely here in just a bit. I just posted a blog. I saw you posted Garys blog. Again we are in different parts of the pattern. I don't think this past weekends severe weather outbreak was the outbreak of March 2nd and 3rd. That was the Feb 27th and 28th storm which also produced severe weather. And the severe weather matches up in the same spot and the right part of the pattern. I will look over the maps you posted. You guys are some serious researchers. I am going to make you all come work for me, lol. It will make my life easier.


I'm closer. wink.gif


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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2012, 03:27 PM
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QUOTE(Joplinmet @ Apr 20 2012, 01:54 PM) *
I saw you posted Garys blog. Again we are in different parts of the pattern. I don't think this past weekends severe weather outbreak was the outbreak of March 2nd and 3rd. That was the Feb 27th and 28th storm which also produced severe weather.


With the outbreaks being so close together time wise I think it may have confused people following along. The Feb 28 ish severe weather event is associated with another surface feature that pins it to the Apr 14 ish severe weather event, in my opinion. The relative warm-up and cool down that took place in WI (my backyard observations).

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar1112.html
(The data you see in the calendar is taken each day 7am to 7am, so the data for the 14th is really the past 24 hours of weather that really happened on the the 13th)

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 20 2012, 03:53 PM


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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2012, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 20 2012, 02:09 PM) *
I'm closer. wink.gif


Indeed, I think jdrenken is closer, like real close!


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OSNW3
post Apr 23 2012, 09:53 AM
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I posted this in the current April 22-23, GL/MidAtl/NE/ NorEaster thread.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1551077

Quite similar what I posted to NYCSuburbs a while back. The Oct 29 snow storm is just around the corner.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1547892


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