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> The LRC Thread 2011/2012, A New Year...A New Pattern
NorEaster07
post May 5 2012, 11:24 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 5 2012, 10:57 AM) *
NorEaster07, I am very excited you brought this up. Without even knowing you did, I just finished a blog entry. It pertains to this exactly! Please check it out. It will help all of us using the trends! smile.gif

The March Anomaly & LRC Center.
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

If you would like I could run the NYC data w/o the March numbers and send it to you. Let me know!


Excellent blog but still a little foreign to me. :-( Ironically you mention March. I've been honeing on March 26th as the turn around point based on data from local NWS stations near me.

While we did have our warm April, the 10+ persistant heat days werent happening. And when it did, it would only last a couple days. The other factor was the wind. After March 26th the winds were not constant around 6mph anymore, they had more days above 10mph and gusts were in the 20s mph.

In fact, April was Connecticuts Windiest month in 25 mths.

Whether its related to the whole "pattern" change or not, I thought it was worth noting.

I stopped adding to this since it was becoming a long document. lol . If I did continue it would show well below normal temps after April 23rd.

I would love for you to send that to me. If you can, use BDR(Bridgeport) since its closer to me but dont go nuts. :-) Thanks!

Attached File  temp3.jpg ( 543.43K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: May 5 2012, 11:26 AM


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Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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jdrenken
post May 5 2012, 11:33 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 5 2012, 09:57 AM) *
NorEaster07, I am very excited you brought this up. Without even knowing you did, I just finished a blog entry. It pertains to this exactly! Please check it out. It will help all of us using the trends! smile.gif

The March Anomaly & LRC Center.
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

If you would like I could run the NYC data w/o the March numbers and send it to you. Let me know!


Great job on both blog post!


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jdrenken
post May 5 2012, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 5 2012, 11:24 AM) *
Excellent blog but still a little foreign to me. :-( Ironically you mention March. I've been honeing on March 26th as the turn around point based on data from local NWS stations near me.

While we did have our warm April, the 10+ persistant heat days werent happening. And when it did, it would only last a couple days. The other factor was the wind. After March 26th the winds were not constant around 6mph anymore, they had more days above 10mph and gusts were in the 20s mph.

In fact, April was Connecticuts Windiest month in 25 mths.

Whether its related to the whole "pattern" change or not, I thought it was worth noting.

I stopped adding to this since it was becoming a long document. lol . If I did continue it would show well below normal temps after April 23rd.

I would love for you to send that to me. If you can, use BDR(Bridgeport) since its closer to me but dont go nuts. :-) Thanks!

Attached File  temp3.jpg ( 543.43K ) Number of downloads: 5


I'm at work right now, but look no further than around the 8th of February to see the connection. Something else that I do is look at the climate graphs that various NWS WFO's have created like STL. Mix that with the LRC calendar that OSNW3 has created and you can't go wrong.


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jdrenken
post May 5 2012, 02:39 PM
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Can't post from work...but utilizing the instantweathermaps 500mb Euro for 15MAY12 and then looking at the LRC calendar mixed with the 500mb dailies for 04APR12, I believe the Euro will be a little too fast. It's also in the LR, so keep that in mind.


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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Gilbertfly
post May 5 2012, 11:13 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 5 2012, 09:57 AM) *
NorEaster07, I am very excited you brought this up. Without even knowing you did, I just finished a blog entry. It pertains to this exactly! Please check it out. It will help all of us using the trends! smile.gif

The March Anomaly & LRC Center.
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

If you would like I could run the NYC data w/o the March numbers and send it to you. Let me know!


Good stuff bud! You're taking things to a new level for us...thanks for all the hard work!

of note also...regional temp averages may also offer a new twist to the insight...tis the time of year for meso to leave deep cloud cover that really puts a damper on temp averages...difficult to forecast placement of left over debris from meso months in advance...but regional temp differentials sure paint a solid pic...

again, awesome stuff! although not chiming in much, I am definetly starting to get caught up on things. great job...keep it up!
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Gilbertfly
post May 5 2012, 11:16 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 1 2012, 04:51 PM) *
I can't post much because we are having internet issues at home. But, it doesn't take brain science to see via the calendar OSNW3 created to see where we are at. Looking at the Daily maps...it also should note the pattern similarities that we have become so acclimated with.


I knew i shouldn't have majored in rocket science! mad.gif

great thread collaberation between you and OSNW3 to keep this rollin'...solid stuff guys!
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OSNW3
post May 6 2012, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 5 2012, 10:24 AM) *
Excellent blog but still a little foreign to me. :-( Ironically you mention March. I've been honeing on March 26th as the turn around point based on data from local NWS stations near me.

While we did have our warm April, the 10+ persistant heat days werent happening. And when it did, it would only last a couple days. The other factor was the wind. After March 26th the winds were not constant around 6mph anymore, they had more days above 10mph and gusts were in the 20s mph.

In fact, April was Connecticuts Windiest month in 25 mths.

Whether its related to the whole "pattern" change or not, I thought it was worth noting.

I stopped adding to this since it was becoming a long document. lol . If I did continue it would show well below normal temps after April 23rd.

I would love for you to send that to me. If you can, use BDR(Bridgeport) since its closer to me but dont go nuts. :-) Thanks!


NorEaster07, we all have to remember that the seasonal position of the jet makes a world of difference from cycle to cycle. I am really interested in your wind data and I would suspect we could plot that data and follow it along in the cycle as well. I don't do it with wind data around here only because it's not on the priority list.

If you are interested for a BDR cycle trend for next year I would gladly add you to the reservation list. You would be #2 on that list. I would be more than happy to maintain it as I am very curious of your climate.


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OSNW3
post May 6 2012, 03:19 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 5 2012, 10:33 AM) *
Great job on both blog post!


Thanks jdrenken. I enjoy collaborating with you in this forum and look forward to dissecting future LRC cycles!


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OSNW3
post May 6 2012, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ May 5 2012, 10:16 PM) *
I knew i shouldn't have majored in rocket science! mad.gif

great thread collaberation between you and OSNW3 to keep this rollin'...solid stuff guys!


I recall someone stating that the LRC is weather for dummies or something like that. I am positive the statement was more elegant, but that is how my dumbass remembers it. smile.gif

The more minds in this the better. I like your regional temp avg thought. I would really enjoy having the ability to plot data for such. I say we put that on the priority list...


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OSNW3
post May 6 2012, 03:28 PM
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Is it getting easier or more difficult?

Weather Event Forecasting - Second Week Of May
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/12/weath...g-last-two.html


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jdrenken
post May 8 2012, 12:02 PM
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First, look here when the GFS was showing the Rex Block in the Pacific. Then look here as to when it finally showed up....9 days late. Note the trough over Central Europe to boot. wink.gif

Now...reference the 00Z run this morning/last evening. Here is the LRC calendar for reference.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  08MAY12_00Z_Euro_GFS.JPG ( 280.69K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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OSNW3
post May 8 2012, 12:21 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 8 2012, 11:02 AM) *
First, look here when the GFS was showing the Rex Block in the Pacific. Then look here as to when it finally showed up....9 days late. Note the trough over Central Europe to boot. wink.gif

Now...reference the 00Z run this morning/last evening. Here is the LRC calendar for reference.


I applaud your work on this comparison jdrenken! The GFS mean looks similar to what would be the cycle duration landing on Feb-17 ish. Please correct me if I am mistaken...


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jdrenken
post May 8 2012, 02:20 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 8 2012, 12:21 PM) *
I applaud your work on this comparison jdrenken! The GFS mean looks similar to what would be the cycle duration landing on Feb-17 ish. Please correct me if I am mistaken...


I'm actually thinking a little bit later due to the models showing it too early in February. They originally had it progged for the 20th of February, but the Rex Block didn't show up until roughly 9 days later. So...my thought is that we'll see the Rex Block in the Pacific around the 25th of May.


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It's a work in progress!

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OSNW3
post May 8 2012, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 8 2012, 01:20 PM) *
I'm actually thinking a little bit later due to the models showing it too early in February. They originally had it progged for the 20th of February, but the Rex Block didn't show up until roughly 9 days later. So...my thought is that we'll see the Rex Block in the Pacific around the 25th of May.


Gotcha! Thanks for explaining a little deeper. I have a feeling you are signaling the Rex Block because that is when another severe weather outbreak will take place, similar to late Feb/early Mar and again to the effect of what happened in middle April. Am I right? Or am I right? smile.gif


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WeatherMonger
post May 9 2012, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 30 2012, 08:52 PM) *
The latest 12Z suites are showing a Rex Block pattern along with a monster low in the Sea of Okhotsk returning...again. Also note the Kona Low feature being shown on the GFS and the Euro has it...just further West.


QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 8 2012, 12:02 PM) *
First, look here when the GFS was showing the Rex Block in the Pacific. Then look here as to when it finally showed up....9 days late. Note the trough over Central Europe to boot. wink.gif

Now...reference the 00Z run this morning/last evening. Here is the LRC calendar for reference.




So with Rex Block being mentioned again, we're watching for the Memorial day'ish timeframe again? If so it will be interesting to see if it can get the trifecta.
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jdrenken
post May 9 2012, 09:26 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 9 2012, 07:52 PM) *
So with Rex Block being mentioned again, we're watching for the Memorial day'ish timeframe again? If so it will be interesting to see if it can get the trifecta.


I will look into your timing specifics at work tomorrow. However, upon clicking on the first link you gave it's funny to hear about the hurricane the GFS is showing and the lower anamolies shown in the same area soo many moons ago. ;-)

EDIT: I believe it's past the "trifecta". ;-)


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OSNW3
post May 10 2012, 11:41 AM
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WeatherMonger, great research!!

Also, lots of people are talking about the May 10, 1990 snowstorm in WI.

Peep this.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_r...ather_maps.html

LRC duration low 50s that season in 1989-90.

Oct 11, Dec 2, Jan 25, Mar 19, May 10.

I strongly suggest seeking the map from the link and looking at the 500s.

Simple amazing.

EDIT: Oct 10, not Oct 11. I am working on a blog entry because it's fun to see the atmosphere cycle.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: May 10 2012, 09:30 PM


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OSNW3
post May 13 2012, 04:58 PM
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Eastern WI - May 10, 1990 & The LRC.

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2012/05/easte...0-1990-lrc.html

More historical patterns to help electrify the cycling wx pattern theory!

Seriously, analyzing past years and finding the cycle is way too much fun!


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jdrenken
post May 14 2012, 03:27 PM
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QUOTE
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
455 PM HST SUN MAY 13 2012

..RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE AT KAHULUI HI THIS MORNING

A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KAHULUI HI THIS
MORNING BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 60 DEGREES SET IN 2009 AND 1971.


Matches well with the below normal temps in the cycles.


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It's a work in progress!

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jdrenken
post May 15 2012, 08:58 PM
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Watch for a severe weather event around the 28th as the trough in the West ejects into the Plains.


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