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> The LRC Thread 2011/2012, A New Year...A New Pattern
jdrenken
post Sep 22 2011, 07:42 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Sep 22 2011, 07:14 PM) *
It's possible. That cut-off low will not only representing a SW Event, it's also representing a Strong Clipper event. Although it won't be as robust, it'll still be formidable.


In a word...no. The pattern isn't coming into view yet.

As I told Craig...my post was merely telling everyone to start watching the cut off lows. Nothing more.


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Gilbertfly
post Sep 22 2011, 11:15 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 22 2011, 07:42 PM) *
In a word...no. The pattern isn't coming into view yet.

As I told Craig...my post was merely telling everyone to start watching the cut off lows. Nothing more.


to add, if i might. . .

Yes, like you said. . .take notes of certain events, but otherwise the pattern won't be truely known until it starts to cycle through the second time. . .

This can be aided by familiarizing (brainwashing) yourself with what is occuring in October-November. . .and things will start to sound and look familiar in late November and early December

The beauty of the cycle is that it is quite simplistic in nature. . .pick an event and add 45-50 (to be determined) days. . .take into consideration jet locations. . .and watch the system or event unfold (again and again and...) . . .and that's about it

The details of any given event can change or differ from cycle to cycle, but that's not for the LRC to determine. . .

Clippers did exist within' the LRC last season, but they can be fickle to see clearly. Some were obvious, others were not. . .

to the new-comers to the LRC. . .I recommend keeping it simple. . .I ran into my biggest problems last year trying to look too deeply into some of the details. Just have fun with it! It is fascinating and educational!
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thenewbigmack
post Sep 25 2011, 02:18 PM
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As a new-comer to the LRC, I have to say I'm very excited to see how this year plays out. I'm a west coast guy, so different parts of the cycle will be more and less beneficial for me as opposed to the east coast guys.
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jdrenken
post Sep 26 2011, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Sep 25 2011, 02:18 PM) *
As a new-comer to the LRC, I have to say I'm very excited to see how this year plays out. I'm a west coast guy, so different parts of the cycle will be more and less beneficial for me as opposed to the east coast guys.


Last year, the systems off the west coast were just as predictable as those East of the Rockies. Look forward to seeing someone on the West Coast come in and chat a bit. Hopefully we can get more of y'all to post.


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Craig-OmahaWX
post Sep 26 2011, 01:08 PM
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I am seeing more and more models forming a huge western trough with a big storm near October 11th


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Niyologist
post Sep 26 2011, 01:33 PM
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QUOTE(Craig-OmahaWX @ Sep 26 2011, 02:08 PM) *
I am seeing more and more models forming a huge western trough with a big storm near October 11th


It's similar to the Western Trough on October 7th-8th, 2010.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us1007.php


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jdrenken
post Sep 26 2011, 02:00 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Sep 26 2011, 01:33 PM) *
It's similar to the Western Trough on October 7th-8th, 2010.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us1007.php


The -PNA for that time period started on 04OCT10.


It then turned into a ULL that sat and spun for two days.


Remember to look at the big picture.


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thenewbigmack
post Sep 26 2011, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 26 2011, 09:01 AM) *
Last year, the systems off the west coast were just as predictable as those East of the Rockies. Look forward to seeing someone on the West Coast come in and chat a bit. Hopefully we can get more of y'all to post.

I was going to ask how consistent the storms have been on the west coast as well. Thanks for answering that. I'm looking forward to seeing what our signature storm has in store. Now that I'm more familiar with the LRC, ill definitely be posting more.
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thenewbigmack
post Sep 26 2011, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(Craig-OmahaWX @ Sep 26 2011, 11:08 AM) *
I am seeing more and more models forming a huge western trough with a big storm near October 11th

I have been noticing this as well. Whether its part of the old cycle or new one I'm not sure how to tell honestly. Its similar to the old one as pointed out, however, could that just be a coincidence?
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Niyologist
post Sep 26 2011, 02:15 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 26 2011, 03:00 PM) *
The -PNA for that time period started on 04OCT10.


It then turned into a ULL that sat and spun for two days.


Remember to look at the big picture.


Could this be a repeat so far? huh.gif


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jdrenken
post Sep 26 2011, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Sep 26 2011, 02:15 PM) *
Could this be a repeat so far? huh.gif


I wouldn't go as far as saying a 'repeat' as even a minor change in the jet configuration will yield different results.

Just don't get caught up in the similarities as much as the differences. OSNW3 has completed some interesting studies related to the subject at hand.


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okie333
post Sep 26 2011, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Sep 26 2011, 02:07 PM) *
I have been noticing this as well. Whether its part of the old cycle or new one I'm not sure how to tell honestly. Its similar to the old one as pointed out, however, could that just be a coincidence?


Actually I could be wrong, but going by the math last year the "signature storm" survived from the previous year... if my calculations are right it should be curving through the Northern Plains around the 10th, give or take, if it survived yet another cycle change.

...Oh wait, look at the 00Z GFS:

Look familiar? wink.gif

This post has been edited by okie333: Sep 26 2011, 03:34 PM


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jdrenken
post Sep 26 2011, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(okie333 @ Sep 26 2011, 03:34 PM) *
Actually I could be wrong, but going by the math last year the "signature storm" survived from the previous year... if my calculations are right it should be curving through the Northern Plains around the 10th, give or take, if it survived yet another cycle change.

...Oh wait, look at the 00Z GFS:

Look familiar? wink.gif


Psst...the signature storm from last October was the 26th. wink.gif


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okie333
post Sep 26 2011, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 26 2011, 03:37 PM) *
Psst...the signature storm from last October was the 26th. wink.gif

I know... but October 26 + (50 days [1 LRC 2010-2011 cycle] * 7) = October 11.

This post has been edited by okie333: Sep 26 2011, 04:03 PM


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Undertakerson
post Sep 26 2011, 03:49 PM
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Well, if we're to believe the long range GFS (that is, if it come to fruition) we can see a GLC from what is portrayed as a powerful WC trough that cuts left at the mid-west (actually, it's proceded by an almost similar but quicker to turn left bundle of energy). That event then eliminates the WC trough and brings the Pacific in with a rather strong jet and lending energy that eventually wants to round some decent east based Rocky Mtn heights axix and drop out of the jet and cut off at the EC.

So, will the pattern set up with the GLC's or will it play out to be one the has a W ridge that allows energy to slide down the trough and spawn clippers or, dare I mention, coastals (as per F384 on the 12z GFS)? The two signals seem to be in conflict with each other and both are viable winter set ups.

Maybe the signature event will be beyond the mid-Oct time frame and become clearer - but this patter we've seen of EC cutoffs seems to be going nowhere fast.


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stuffradio
post Sep 26 2011, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 26 2011, 09:01 AM) *
Last year, the systems off the west coast were just as predictable as those East of the Rockies. Look forward to seeing someone on the West Coast come in and chat a bit. Hopefully we can get more of y'all to post.

I don't remember specific storms from last year. All I remember is rain.
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OSNW3
post Sep 26 2011, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Sep 26 2011, 03:50 PM) *
I don't remember specific storms from last year. All I remember is rain.


stuffradio, the link below gives a short description of a feature pattern for your neck of the woods during the 2010-11 LRC.

http://lrcweather.com/index.php?view=artic...t&Itemid=29

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 26 2011, 08:43 PM


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OSNW3
post Sep 27 2011, 09:45 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 26 2011, 02:27 PM) *
I wouldn't go as far as saying a 'repeat' as even a minor change in the jet configuration will yield different results.

Just don't get caught up in the similarities as much as the differences. OSNW3 has completed some interesting studies related to the subject at hand.


In the debate of the previous cycle year repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11, it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I put all of my thoughts into a blog entry, take a look and let me know what you think.

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

Fun times ahead! Until the new pattern is defined I will continue to update my "2010-11 500mb Forecast For Green Bay using the LRC" spreadsheet as it may prove to be useful in acknowledging when the new cycle has taken hold.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/500mbDailyForecast.html


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jdrenken
post Sep 27 2011, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 27 2011, 09:45 AM) *
In the debate of the previous cycle year repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11, it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I put all of my thoughts into a blog entry, take a look and let me know what you think.

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

Fun times ahead! Until the new pattern is defined I will continue to update my "2010-11 500mb Forecast For Green Bay using the LRC" spreadsheet as it may prove to be useful in acknowledging when the new cycle has taken hold.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/500mbDailyForecast.html


Nice write up! I'm going to have to wait until I get home to look at the DjVu application as I can't download that here at work...despite being in IT. laugh.gif


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okie333
post Sep 27 2011, 06:14 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 27 2011, 09:45 AM) *
In the debate of the previous cycle year repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11, it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I put all of my thoughts into a blog entry, take a look and let me know what you think.

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

Fun times ahead! Until the new pattern is defined I will continue to update my "2010-11 500mb Forecast For Green Bay using the LRC" spreadsheet as it may prove to be useful in acknowledging when the new cycle has taken hold.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/500mbDailyForecast.html

What is more remarkable, though, is that the same storm has been in the pattern since at least 09-10, and it's been a doozy whenever it's passed by the US.


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PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles)
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