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> The LRC Thread 2011/2012, A New Year...A New Pattern
OSNW3
post Sep 27 2011, 07:05 PM
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QUOTE(okie333 @ Sep 27 2011, 06:14 PM) *
What is more remarkable, though, is that the same storm has been in the pattern since at least 09-10, and it's been a doozy whenever it's passed by the US.


okie333, Iíve read articles about a "Concept 360" on the Internet. Entertaining stuff to say the least. Perhaps the second week of April the past five years is an example. I compared the storms via radar in a blog entry over a year ago before I knew about the LRC and in remembering the "Concept 360" I thought of this example and traced it back five years in the 500mb maps.

Is it all coincidence?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20070413.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20080412.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20090412.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20100407.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20110410.html

http://osnw3.blogspot.com/2010/04/early-spring-101.html


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jdrenken
post Sep 28 2011, 03:46 PM
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The 12Z GFS is a perfect example of what I'm talking about regarding similarities/differences. Yes, it shows a cut off developing in the SW, however...keep in mind that you don't have a "retrograding" low across Northern Canada like we did last year.


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OSNW3
post Sep 28 2011, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 28 2011, 03:46 PM) *
The 12Z GFS is a perfect example of what I'm talking about regarding similarities/differences. Yes, it shows a cut off developing in the SW, however...keep in mind that you don't have a "retrograding" low across Northern Canada like we did last year.


jdrenken, I like your 500mb comparison here. I recognize pattern similarities between the days of Sep 29, 2011 and Oct 16, 2010 but after that the patterns take a different course (the retro low in Canada last year, the large high forecast in the SW this year). They come back together somewhat around the day of Oct 8, 2011 and Oct 23, 2010 with the features that included the days leading up to the 'signature' storm from last year. My conclusion from this comparison is there are more differences than similarities. I also have a hard time believing the GFS more than 7 days out (50/50).

Thanks for sharing the fun! I am excited to watch the new cycle unveil itself.


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thenewbigmack
post Sep 29 2011, 12:56 PM
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So when is it safe to assume we have entered the new LRC pattern? The models are still advertising a pretty deep trough to develop over the NW and I'm wondering if this would be part of the new or old pattern? Recognizing the pattern change is tough for me since this will be my first year following it. Thanks guys
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jdrenken
post Sep 29 2011, 01:40 PM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Sep 29 2011, 12:56 PM) *
So when is it safe to assume we have entered the new LRC pattern? The models are still advertising a pretty deep trough to develop over the NW and I'm wondering if this would be part of the new or old pattern? Recognizing the pattern change is tough for me since this will be my first year following it. Thanks guys


There is a mixture of both going on right now. As you stated, there is a trough that's taking hold over the West in the near future. However, there are other features that are missing from last year like the retrograding low that moved from East to West across Northern Canada.

So, that being said...it's best to wait and see what the 'hybrid' pattern shows.


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thenewbigmack
post Sep 29 2011, 04:26 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 29 2011, 11:40 AM) *
There is a mixture of both going on right now. As you stated, there is a trough that's taking hold over the West in the near future. However, there are other features that are missing from last year like the retrograding low that moved from East to West across Northern Canada.

So, that being said...it's best to wait and see what the 'hybrid' pattern shows.

Thanks for the quick reply. Looks like its a wait and see game right now until new patterns emerge. Seems like the only time we will know the pattern for sure is once it repeats itself
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Niyologist
post Sep 29 2011, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 29 2011, 02:40 PM) *
There is a mixture of both going on right now. As you stated, there is a trough that's taking hold over the West in the near future. However, there are other features that are missing from last year like the retrograding low that moved from East to West across Northern Canada.

So, that being said...it's best to wait and see what the 'hybrid' pattern shows.


This Year's LRC is interesting, nonetheless. smile.gif


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thenewbigmack
post Oct 1 2011, 05:11 AM
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Looks as though Gary believes the western toughing is in fact part of the new LRC....
www.weatherblog.nbcactionnews.com/massive-change-in-the-weather-pattern-is-showing-up/

This post has been edited by thenewbigmack: Oct 1 2011, 05:12 AM
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The Snowman
post Oct 2 2011, 02:09 PM
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And so begins the designated period for the new LRC.


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idecline
post Oct 3 2011, 05:37 AM
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Very interesting stuff...I've been reading this thread for several weeks now and being on the West Coast I have always had a good 'feel' for the way the storms progress across the country. But the LRC is an a new word in my weather vocabulary and it will make it more interesting to see the patterns as they emerge.

The 'storm'(s) approaching the West Coast are just hitting Northern California as of 3:30am PDT and it appears this trough will be persistent and perhaps very deep...It looks similar(to me) to storms that dumped 10"+ in the nearby Santa Cruz Mountains in mid October 2009...I don't have much ability to access sites or blogs...but with all of the info here I hope to get an idea of the 'pattern' that , to me, is beginning to take shape.

idecline in Santa Cruz, CA


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The Snowman
post Oct 4 2011, 03:43 PM
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(LRC newbie here)
Wondering if the GFS is latching onto some sort of recurring theme over its 12z run today.
Hours: 72, 138, 288, 384
Attached File(s)
Attached File  12zgfs500mbHGHTNA072.gif ( 59.13K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  12zgfs500mbHGHTNA138.gif ( 58.08K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  12zgfs500mbHGHTNA288.gif ( 55.05K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  12zgfs500mbHGHTNA384.gif ( 55.54K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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Gilbertfly
post Oct 4 2011, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 4 2011, 03:43 PM) *
(LRC newbie here)
Wondering if the GFS is latching onto some sort of recurring theme over its 12z run today.
Hours: 72, 138, 288, 384


That scenario may end up being a part of the new cycle. . .but we will first need to see what transpires in reality, then wait 50 days (or so) from each of those forecast timestamps to see if they are part of the new cycle or not (meaning if they repeat, or some version of them repeats, or not)

As JD alluded to. . .we are still in the wait and see portion - take notes, then see what's repeating come november-december time
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OSNW3
post Oct 7 2011, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 4 2011, 03:43 PM) *
(LRC newbie here)
Wondering if the GFS is latching onto some sort of recurring theme over its 12z run today.
Hours: 72, 138, 288, 384


Snowman, currently I have a difficult time believing in the long range 500mb GFS past 7 days. Starting December first I will be following the 500mb GFS 7-14 day forecasts comparing them with LRC based 500mb averages. I attempted this comparison last year but it consistent as I was still creating the tool. This year it is a full onslaught, the LRC vs the GFS.

As for the new LRC, I would have to believe we have begun and it will be interesting to see if any 'signature' events from last year show their face somehow this year. Exciting times.


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OSNW3
post Oct 7 2011, 11:52 AM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Oct 4 2011, 03:55 PM) *
That scenario may end up being a part of the new cycle. . .but we will first need to see what transpires in reality, then wait 50 days (or so) from each of those forecast timestamps to see if they are part of the new cycle or not (meaning if they repeat, or some version of them repeats, or not)

As JD alluded to. . .we are still in the wait and see portion - take notes, then see what's repeating come november-december time


Gilbertfly, any particular way you are taking notes this season? Any special rhyme or reason? I think the followers of this thread should collaborate on our personal attempts and create a clear and comprehensible calendar/list.


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Regionrat
post Oct 7 2011, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 7 2011, 11:52 AM) *
Gilbertfly, any particular way you are taking notes this season? Any special rhyme or reason? I think the followers of this thread should collaborate on our personal attempts and create a clear and comprehensible calendar/list.

I am intrigued by the current pattern we're experiencing in the Midwest, and if it's part of the transition to the new LRC, or if it's part of the new pattern.

This post has been edited by Regionrat: Oct 7 2011, 01:06 PM


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OSNW3
post Oct 7 2011, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE(Regionrat @ Oct 7 2011, 12:51 PM) *
I'm not taking notes, but I am intrigued by the current pattern we're experiencing in the Midwest, and if it's part of the transition to the new LRC, or if it's part of the new pattern.


Regionrat, I think it's the new cycle. There really isn't much to go on from last years cycle anymore. My 500mb forecast graph from last year is telling me the same thing. For now, I have data and my gut telling me this is new... what we need is patience. smile.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/500mbDailyForecast.html


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Regionrat
post Oct 7 2011, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 7 2011, 01:07 PM) *
Regionrat, I think it's the new cycle. There really isn't much to go on from last years cycle anymore. My 500mb forecast graph from last year is telling me the same thing. For now, I have data and my gut telling me this is new... what we need is patience. smile.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/500mbDailyForecast.html

Patience is the key, but I'm really intrigued by this monster high, or series of highs, that have dominated the weather the past week, and look to dominate it through the middle of next week. If this general pattern repeats itself, is BRRRRR!!!!!!! on tap?


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OSNW3
post Oct 7 2011, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(Regionrat @ Oct 7 2011, 01:24 PM) *
Patience is the key, but I'm really intrigued by this monster high, or series of highs, that have dominated the weather the past week, and look to dominate it through the middle of next week. If this general pattern repeats itself, is BRRRRR!!!!!!! on tap?


Regionrat, this time last year we were in the midst of the same type of scenario. A 17 day dry spell in my back yard followed by thunderstorms.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/rc201010.html
http://osnw3.blogspot.com/2010/10/historic...post-storm.html

We do not live all that far apart and following this years LRC should prove to be exciting for the both of us. It will be interesting to follow the differences in our surface analysis as well...



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The Snowman
post Oct 10 2011, 09:21 AM
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I've been watching the ECMWF for a day or two now because of a pattern that seems to have come up- Low on west coast, high in the central US, low on east coast type of pattern. Here's today's 0z link.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0..../ecmwfloop.html


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The Snowman
post Oct 11 2011, 05:28 PM
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Anyone check out the 12z GFS putting 3 storms through Central/Southern IL in an eerily similar fashion over the next 16 days?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html


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