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> The LRC Thread 2011/2012, A New Year...A New Pattern
jdrenken
post Apr 24 2012, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 23 2012, 09:53 AM) *
I posted this in the current April 22-23, GL/MidAtl/NE/ NorEaster thread.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1551077

Quite similar what I posted to NYCSuburbs a while back. The Oct 29 snow storm is just around the corner.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1547892


I just haven't had time to look deep into much lately, but did find Gary posting about it. He attributes this past weekend storm to the 29OCT11 storm here.


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jdrenken
post Apr 24 2012, 04:50 PM
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On a side note...the models are showing a system hitting Southern California in mid-range which is early May. I'm thinking they are a bit fast though.


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jdrenken
post Apr 24 2012, 05:08 PM
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Look for a Rex Block to develop in the Pacific off the West coast around the 20-25th of May.


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OSNW3
post Apr 24 2012, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 24 2012, 03:28 PM) *
I just haven't had time to look deep into much lately, but did find Gary posting about it. He attributes this past weekend storm to the 29OCT11 storm here.


I heard about this last night and from my postings the other day it is evident I completely disagree with the man who calls the cycle his.

This is a giant step in my learning process! You know, being able to disagree with GL.

All we can do is wait and see what happens Apr 29-30 ish.


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jdrenken
post Apr 24 2012, 06:12 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 24 2012, 05:25 PM) *
I heard about this last night and from my postings the other day it is evident I completely disagree with the man who calls the cycle his.

This is a giant step in my learning process! You know, being able to disagree with GL.

All we can do is wait and see what happens Apr 29-30 ish.


October 29-November 1 Plains/MW/OV/GL Clipper actually matches with the April 24-25th Severe thread as it has a "clipperish" look to it.

October 31-November 1 MidAtl/NE Storm matches the thread April 29-30 MidAtl/NE storm.


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jdrenken
post Apr 26 2012, 11:32 PM
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HPC 5 Day...
Attached File  HPC_5_Day_qpf25.JPG ( 116.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


My comments on the FB and Twitter accounts..

QUOTE
Joseph Renken
Another 8-ball view...watch for a multiple day possibility of precipitation during late April-Early May across the Tri-States.
Like Unfollow Post April 8 at 8:57pm


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Gilbertfly
post Apr 27 2012, 01:00 PM
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Recalling the heat in the middle to end of March makes the comments by LOT not all that surprising as we approach the beginning of MAY. . .

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

FOR THE LONGER TERM...FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT SOLUTION OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...HAVE CAUTIOUSLY CONTINUED THE
TREND IN THE FORECAST TO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...SFC FLOW WILL STILL BE GENERALLY
ELY...SO FAR NERN IL...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR MAY FINALLY SEE A RETURN OF 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE THAT THE PONTIAC AREA COULD SEE TEMPS TAG THE
80F MARK WEDNESDAY.
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Gilbertfly
post Apr 30 2012, 09:42 AM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Apr 27 2012, 01:00 PM) *
Recalling the heat in the middle to end of March makes the comments by LOT not all that surprising as we approach the beginning of MAY. . .


continuing. . .

well color me shocked. . . lol

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
912 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING OVER THE CWFA BY WED
MORNING...WHICH WOULD PUT MUCH OF THE AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPS SOARING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWFA. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN TOUCH 90 DEG.
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Gilbertfly
post Apr 30 2012, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Apr 30 2012, 09:42 AM) *
continuing. . .

well color me shocked. . . lol


and DVN chimes in as well....I'm going with the ECM for 500 alex...

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS ALL BLEND
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES TO COOL WITH LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER AS
STATED EARLIER THE 12Z ECM SUGGESTS THE WARM AND STORMY PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL
GIVE A DEFINITE TREND EITHER TO COOL AND DRY OR STAYING WARM AND WET.


seems logical as the heat persisted in March for a good part of 3 weeks. . .

March 15th...
Attached File  colormaxmin_20120315.gif ( 15.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


March 23rd...
Attached File  colormaxmin_20120323.gif ( 16.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


April 4th...
Attached File  colormaxmin_20120404.gif ( 16.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


obviously there were a few spikes and valleys throughout...but that was about the length of things...

March 15th to May 1st...

That's put us around 45 or 46 days...to line up the start times of the "heat"...does that sound right fellas?
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Joplinmet
post Apr 30 2012, 06:47 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 24 2012, 06:25 PM) *
I heard about this last night and from my postings the other day it is evident I completely disagree with the man who calls the cycle his.

This is a giant step in my learning process! You know, being able to disagree with GL.

All we can do is wait and see what happens Apr 29-30 ish.


What is this about?
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Joplinmet
post Apr 30 2012, 06:52 PM
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I know Josh was talking and posting stuff about what I call a system flip. However, I haven't shown it to anybody. So it would be hard to compare what I am talking about when you can't pick my brain. That is why I have always said if you guys have questions just ask.

"From the man who calls the cycle his" lmao
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OSNW3
post Apr 30 2012, 10:38 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Apr 30 2012, 03:00 PM) *
That's put us around 45 or 46 days...to line up the start times of the "heat"...does that sound right fellas?


Seems right to me G! It is about to commence. When this part of the cycle returns in late June things around here could get toasty!


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OSNW3
post Apr 30 2012, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE(Joplinmet @ Apr 30 2012, 05:52 PM) *
"From the man who calls the cycle his" lmao


I meant zero disrespect to anyone. Gary was comparing the snowfall in the east last week to the Oct 29 noreaster putting the cycle at 44 ish days for that particular time frame. I disagreed.


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OSNW3
post Apr 30 2012, 10:43 PM
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QUOTE(Joplinmet @ Apr 30 2012, 05:52 PM) *
I know Josh was talking and posting stuff about what I call a system flip. However, I haven't shown it to anybody. So it would be hard to compare what I am talking about when you can't pick my brain. That is why I have always said if you guys have questions just ask.


I still feel this needs to be studied. It happens and is evident in the trends. I think it is time we pick your brain!


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jdrenken
post May 1 2012, 04:51 PM
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I can't post much because we are having internet issues at home. But, it doesn't take brain science to see via the calendar OSNW3 created to see where we are at. Looking at the Daily maps...it also should note the pattern similarities that we have become so acclimated with.


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OSNW3
post May 2 2012, 12:21 PM
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I put the numbers together for the AccuWx 25 vs the LRC.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/accuwxvslrc0412.html

It was tight. I will begin a comparison for May soon.


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NorEaster07
post May 2 2012, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 2 2012, 01:21 PM) *
I put the numbers together for the AccuWx 25 vs the LRC.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/accuwxvslrc0412.html

It was tight. I will begin a comparison for May soon.


Wow! Excellent work there. Nice. Thanks for taking the time to do that.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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OSNW3
post May 2 2012, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 2 2012, 11:27 AM) *
Wow! Excellent work there. Nice. Thanks for taking the time to do that.


Thanks. There are many ways to hash out the LRC cycle data. For this particular comparison the LRC data is just a blend of all cycles.


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NorEaster07
post May 2 2012, 03:24 PM
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Quick side note: I was looking at NYC's trend based on the LRC and since April 22nd it has had a major spread. I even told someone back in March that end of April would see mid 80s looking at this. LOL

You're charts and info are incredible. Anyone know what changed or what it didnt see with this cooling trend?


Attached File  temps7.jpg ( 230.41K ) Number of downloads: 0


Edit: Tomorrows max temp will finally close the gap.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: May 2 2012, 03:25 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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OSNW3
post May 5 2012, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 2 2012, 02:24 PM) *
Quick side note: I was looking at NYC's trend based on the LRC and since April 22nd it has had a major spread. I even told someone back in March that end of April would see mid 80s looking at this. LOL


NorEaster07, I am very excited you brought this up. Without even knowing you did, I just finished a blog entry. It pertains to this exactly! Please check it out. It will help all of us using the trends! smile.gif

The March Anomaly & LRC Center.
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

If you would like I could run the NYC data w/o the March numbers and send it to you. Let me know!

This post has been edited by OSNW3: May 5 2012, 09:58 AM


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