Hurricane Phillipe, 11AM AST: CAT1 80MPH - 985MB - NNE @ 9MPH Options

[Superstorm93]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109231604
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011092312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011092312, , BEST, 0, 96N, 210W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

CODE

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL902011  09/23/11  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    24    27    30    40    52    62    66    70    72    74    77
V (KT) LAND       20    21    24    27    30    40    52    62    66    70    72    74    77
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    21    23    25    31    39    51    63    72    74    72    70
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)        14    14    12    10     8     4     4     2     3     5     4   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -4    -4    -4    -1     0    -2     5     0     3     2   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR         18    29    56    67    67    78    62   102   245   260   225   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         28.1  28.0  27.8  27.7  27.7  27.8  28.2  28.3  28.2  28.0  27.8  27.8  27.7
POT. INT. (KT)   139   139   136   134   134   135   140   141   139   136   132   132   131
ADJ. POT. INT.   143   145   140   138   137   137   141   141   137   132   126   125   123
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     70    69    68    71    70    69    67    67    69    72    71   N/A   N/A
GFS VTEX (KT)      6     7     7     7     8     8     8     7     7     8     8  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    24    23    29    30    32    41    36    26     5    -1    -9   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV         7    12    -7    -6   -27     5    28    10    22    33    13   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV       0     0    -1    -1     0     1     0    -3    -2    -4    -4   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        541   679   829   980  1133  1414  1657  1632  1603  1642  1647  1600  1562
LAT (DEG N)      9.6   9.9  10.1  10.2  10.2  10.3  10.4  10.6  11.0  11.7  12.4  13.0  13.6
LONG(DEG W)     21.0  22.6  24.1  25.6  27.0  29.7  32.1  34.2  36.1  37.7  38.8  39.8  40.8
STM SPEED (KT)    13    15    15    14    14    12    11    10     9     8     6     6     6
HEAT CONTENT      15    15    17    18    11    18    22    21    17    18    17    18    21

[jdrenken]

New invest from the 'lemon drop'.

[Superstorm93]

New invest from the 'lemon drop'.

[Superstorm93]

Probably gonna see the "P" storm from this one...

Fortunately, fish is the main course.

[NYCSuburbs]

Probably gonna see the "P" storm from this one...

Fortunately, fish is the main course.

This season is getting way too predictable... with the way how things are going, I'd be surprised if this doesn't become a tropical storm and recurves out to sea near Bermuda

On a more serious note, does anyone know what's causing all of the storms to recurve this year instead of enter the Caribbean? The Caribbean has actually been relatively quiet over the last few years, since 2009, with a lot of storms aroung the Caribbean but barely in the Caribbean itself.

[Superstorm93]

This season is getting way too predictable... with the way how things are going, I'd be surprised if this doesn't become a tropical storm and recurves out to sea near Bermuda

On a more serious note, does anyone know what's causing all of the storms to recurve this year instead of enter the Caribbean? The Caribbean has actually been relatively quiet over the last few years, since 2009, with a lot of storms aroung the Caribbean but barely in the Caribbean itself.

Actually, the west Caribbean was extremely active last year.

[NYCSuburbs]

Actually, the west Caribbean was extremely active last year.

Sorry, I should have clarified my statement better. I was thinking about the central and eastern Caribbean when making that statement; the western Caribbean has been active over the last few years but there were barely any storms moving from west to east through the Caribbean. The storm that almost did so, Tomas of last year, never ended up as strong as expected and was at its weakest point during its lifetime when in the central Caribbean.

[Superstorm93]

Sorry, I should have clarified my statement better. I was thinking about the central and eastern Caribbean when making that statement; the western Caribbean has been active over the last few years but there were barely any storms moving from west to east through the Caribbean. The storm that almost did so, Tomas of last year, never ended up as strong as expected and was at its weakest point during its lifetime when in the central Caribbean.

That's true. Tomas was supposed to roar though the Caribbean, but wound up pretty much dissipating. Something has been going on this year and the past few years that is really causing odd seasons.

This year is certainly an anomaly with the amount of weak systems forming. ACE is remarkably low for the amount of storms we have had...

[goblue96]

The counter on the Central Florida Hurricane Center website is at 2,160 days since the last hurricane made landfall in Florida.

http://flhurricane.com/

[MAC292OH10]

Sorry, I should have clarified my statement better. I was thinking about the central and eastern Caribbean when making that statement; the western Caribbean has been active over the last few years but there were barely any storms moving from west to east through the Caribbean. The storm that almost did so, Tomas of last year, never ended up as strong as expected and was at its weakest point during its lifetime when in the central Caribbean.

do you mean genuine Caribbean cruisers like Dean/Felix of '07 or late season storms like Paloma/Tomas of '08?

i wouldnt rule out Paloma/Tomas '08 or even Ida '09 typ system(s) as we near the end of the season, those tracks are along the lines of late late season climo activity...

[shane o mac]

Ya this season sucked it wasnt at all what was expected there have been storms that shouldnt of even been named like jose for example its not a good season at all ..

[Brandon]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240858
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 25.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




Source


Satellite source

[NYCSuburbs]

We now have Philippe:

00
WTNT42 KNHC 242056
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72
HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W
LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE
PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Source

This year's storm formation has slowed down significantly since Nate, though the formation of named storms is still much earlier than usual; 2005's Philippe formed on 9/17, about 7 days before this year's Philippe. Last year's "P" storm, Paula, formed on 10/11, almost 1/2 month later than this year.

[goblue96]

The fish will like Phillippe.

[Snow____]

Granted not many storms have hit the US the season is a very active one. All ready on the P storm.

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011

...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 34.2W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr


phil getting close to getting trapped under that huge high

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 38.8W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST. PHILIPPE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[rainstorm]

12Z looks more interesting

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr

[jdrenken]

12Z looks more interesting

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=168hr

Not really. More than likely, will turn into another Ophelia as he gets sheared and get caught up in the trough that the GFS is showing after your 168hr.

00Z run