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> Oct. 11-13th West Coast (California) Heatwave, Possibility:Medium Range [4-7 Days Out Forecast]
alxz310
post Sep 28 2011, 12:35 AM
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As we head into next week, models are showing the possibility of the first significant pacific storm of the season to impact the West Coast with rain as far south as California. A few runs of the GFS have even brought rain as far south as SoCal, courtesy of a ~540DM low in the Pacific NW. In addition, some remnant moisture from former Hurricane Hilary could flow up into SoCal later this week and this weekend causing the possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms.



This post has been edited by alxz310: Oct 8 2011, 12:45 AM


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Beck
post Sep 28 2011, 12:39 AM
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biggrin.gif

I can't wait for our first real rains of the season. The animals, plants, and myself will enjoy it so much happy.gif

NCEP Ensemble Model showing deepest low pressure over SoCal over the 6th-7th.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.00"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

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FrostFuzz
post Sep 28 2011, 12:30 PM
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Looking like another early start to the rainy season. Last year there was a storm at almost the exact same time. That one was a pretty big disappointment for anyone not along the coast though. And now that I check, there was a nice monsoon push on October 1 last year as well. It's like we are trying to do a complete repeat of last year laugh.gif


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My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15 pending

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Jet Developer
post Sep 28 2011, 01:22 PM
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They probably don't keep record of stuff like this, but this has just gotta be the gloomiest September in history for the coastal areas.
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Artisane
post Sep 28 2011, 02:22 PM
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I certainly hope the forecast for next week holds. .32" of rain over two days with highs around 70.
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LALEO
post Sep 28 2011, 04:01 PM
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So far my thoughts on this coming winter and of Hurricane remnants are coming to fruition... More rain could potentially be in the long range of next week. This winter despite El Nina will be pleasing. Nothing major to mention..... Yet. Rained the past two mornings on my way to work.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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Jet Developer
post Sep 28 2011, 09:33 PM
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Marine layer is behaving strangely again. After burning off extremely slowly and storming inland like a tsunami this evening, it is now pulling off the coast by San Diego. We must have quite an eddy out there and I'm guessing inversion strength must be at least 15 C.
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alxz310
post Sep 28 2011, 09:46 PM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Sep 28 2011, 07:33 PM) *
Marine layer is behaving strangely again. After burning off extremely slowly and storming inland like a tsunami this evening, it is now pulling off the coast by San Diego. We must have quite an eddy out there and I'm guessing inversion strength must be at least 15 C.


We're getting some light drizzle here now in Santa Monica. And must be, but I don't think the inversion is that extreme... Its around 15-16C with the marine layer, so that would mean above that it would have to be 86F-88F. Probably slightly less.

Also the 12Z GFS had about .19" of precip but the 18Z is down to nearly nothing... Interesting to see how it plays out. In other news the nws broad-brushed friday-sun with slight chance pops


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Beck
post Sep 28 2011, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Sep 28 2011, 07:33 PM) *
Marine layer is behaving strangely again. After burning off extremely slowly and storming inland like a tsunami this evening, it is now pulling off the coast by San Diego. We must have quite an eddy out there and I'm guessing inversion strength must be at least 15 C.

Sky looks weird in your direction from here. Odd colors. What are you guys doing over there in Lake Forest....? laugh.gif


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.00"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

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Al.J
post Sep 28 2011, 10:20 PM
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Looking like a soaker next week for NorCal between 1-3" of rain depending on where you are. As a reference for you guys I now work up in the foothills most of the time as I manage 3 branches so when I say the area I'm working in I'm now talking about the 2000ft elevation in the sierras just outside of Tahoe. Up there I'm thinking we should get at least 2 if not 3" if the models projections continue to hold.


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Tahoe
post Sep 28 2011, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(Al.J @ Sep 28 2011, 08:20 PM) *
Looking like a soaker next week for NorCal between 1-3" of rain depending on where you are. As a reference for you guys I now work up in the foothills most of the time as I manage 3 branches so when I say the area I'm working in I'm now talking about the 2000ft elevation in the sierras just outside of Tahoe. Up there I'm thinking we should get at least 2 if not 3" if the models projections continue to hold.


Nevada City/Grass Valley area?
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Jet Developer
post Sep 28 2011, 11:07 PM
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Something wierd happening here - notice how the marine layer is slowly moving offshore over most of San Diego County and now parts of the O.C.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat....=fog&size=2

At the same time it's moving past Burbank and near Ontario.
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FrostFuzz
post Sep 28 2011, 11:14 PM
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After a hot day yesterday temps dropped like a rock today, which is a bit surprising. The high was 88F, 12 degrees cooler than yesterday.


--------------------
My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15 pending

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LALEO
post Sep 28 2011, 11:20 PM
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It's been lightly raining or drizzling here for the past hour.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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Al.J
post Sep 28 2011, 11:30 PM
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QUOTE(Tahoe @ Sep 28 2011, 09:04 PM) *
Nevada City/Grass Valley area?


Placerville all the way up to Pollock Pines.


SPS from the NWS, looks like snow for the sierras. The exciting thing for me this year is that the eastern fringes of the area I work in is at the snow line so I'll be getting quite a bit of snow.

"
...EARLY SEASON RAIN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY...

AFTER WARM AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
COASTAL VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AS FOG RETURNS TO THE COAST AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. COOLER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.

ON MONDAY THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY IN THE NORTH
BAY...EARLY ESTIMATES OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM.

THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXACT
TIMING AND DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINED TUNED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS TO THE
SIERRA NEXT WEEK SHOULD PLAN FOR WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
CARRY CHAINS IF YOUR PLANS INCLUDE TRAVELING OVER THE TRANS-SIERRA
PASSES. EVEN THE HILLS OF THE BAY AREA WILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOL BUT DRY AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK."

Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/get...R&version=0

This post has been edited by Al.J: Sep 28 2011, 11:34 PM


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Beck
post Sep 28 2011, 11:42 PM
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No marine layer here to speak of yet, but real cool real quick here. I love how the coolness begins to move in quicker and quicker this time of year cool.gif


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.00"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

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alxz310
post Sep 29 2011, 01:58 PM
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The 12Z GFS is back with 0.19" of precipitation from that pacific storm. Seems like models keep going back and forth between bringing in precipitation, but it's looking more likely that we'll get at least something. Also, even though the GFS shows no rain/t-storms from moisture associated with Hilary, the NWS for now has kept in pops saying that models perform very poorly with moist SW flow. Interesting to see how this turns out smile.gif


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alxz310
post Sep 29 2011, 10:45 PM
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I found it funny that I saw the mention of "El Nina" on another forum, just like LALEO is saying laugh.gif

Anyways, Ken Clark seems to think that moisture with hilary won't be a factor anymore because it's weakened too much.

Also found this post interesting, from another forum ... Source: Link

QUOTE
MJO is staunchly Nio in nature right now... I was waiting for this to happen before announcing it as my reasoning for a stronger STJ than ENSO alone would suggest. Also the wind anomalies are starting to show the beginnings of what looks to be a Pineapple Express... this could surprise many forecasters who are counting on the Texas drought to continue... going out on a limb and saying the SW may end up above avg in precip this winter.


This post has been edited by alxz310: Sep 29 2011, 10:50 PM


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Beck
post Sep 30 2011, 01:15 AM
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We could be looking at highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s late next week for inland areas. First time we'll have seen that since May.

This post has been edited by Beck: Sep 30 2011, 01:16 AM


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Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
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Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

Temecula Weather Pages
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FrostFuzz
post Sep 30 2011, 09:44 AM
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Clouds are beginning to work their way in from the south east. Also a bit of moisture from Hilary is beginning to show up on radar off the coast. If we manage to get a good disturbance to set things off, there could be some decent rain out of this. Otherwise though probably not. Both sources have put down lightning this morning so dry lightning is a concern. We will see what happens...


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My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15 pending

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