Sept. 30 - Oct. 3 MidAtl/NE Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecast and OBS Options

[albanyweather]

One cutoff finally leaves and another one takes over for the weekend. The 12z GEM has quite the moisture fetch. Just what we need...more rain

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html

This post has been edited by albanyweather: Sep 29 2011, 01:02 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

I almost can't believe it's that time of the year already... snow is showing up on the NWS forecasts in parts of the NE already. With the cut off low trending SW and possibly ending up over east central NY, the higher elevations of Pennsylvania/West Virginia would be favored over the Catskills/Adirondacks to see snow, but some flakes cannot be ruled out there if the storm is further NE than currently modeled by the CMC/GFS. It's not certain that it will snow, but it's definitely interesting that the potential is there.

In order: Catskills, Adirondacks, West Virginia

[NYCSuburbs]

06z NAM - as if we haven't had enough rain already




Even the GGEM isn't that wet, but it does keep throwing back rain over New England through Monday while the cut off low sits over NYC/southern NY. This outcome will mean that SNE will not feel the effects of this cool spell, but will in fact see warmer temperatures, reaching into the 60s to lower 70s while southern New York down into most of the Mid Atlantic see highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

The GFS doesn't show anything significant, with light-moderate rain, but the ECMWF is the ugliest of them all - the cut-off low sticks around through hour 240...

[east coast storm]

06z NAM - as if we haven't had enough rain already




Even the GGEM isn't that wet, but it does keep throwing back rain over New England through Monday while the cut off low sits over NYC/southern NY. This outcome will mean that SNE will not feel the effects of this cool spell, but will in fact see warmer temperatures, reaching into the 60s to lower 70s while southern New York down into most of the Mid Atlantic see highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

The GFS doesn't show anything significant, with light-moderate rain, but the ECMWF is the ugliest of them all - the cut-off low sticks around through hour 240...

I would go with the GFS, showing the cut off low slowly pulling away to the NE monday and that
nice Canadian High building in for the rest of the week.

[NYCSuburbs]

I would go with the GFS, showing the cut off low slowly pulling away to the NE monday and that
nice Canadian High building in for the rest of the week.

I would be tempted to go with the GFS as well, but it was also the one that insisted on never showed the weekend cut off low forming, instead bringing in a strong cold air mass across the entire region with a high pressure and a significant warm spell building in by Monday/Tuesday, which as we know by now, will not be the case. I do think that the ULL should eventually pull away by the mid-late week, but the ULL might stick around a little longer than the GFS has, which could complicate the scenario for mid-late next week into the weekend a little more.

[east coast storm]

I would be tempted to go with the GFS as well, but it was also the one that insisted on never showed the weekend cut off low forming, instead bringing in a strong cold air mass across the entire region with a high pressure and a significant warm spell building in by Monday/Tuesday, which as we know by now, will not be the case. I do think that the ULL should eventually pull away by the mid-late week, but the ULL might stick around a little longer than the GFS has, which could complicate the scenario for mid-late next week into the weekend a little more.

So its becoming less clear cut that the cutoff low would move slowing NE sunday with the
high building in giving us nice weather for monday and most of next week. Is there even
a possibility that the low could even drift farther south and stall off the MA coast
giving us almost noreaster conditions with gusty NE winds and on and off rain early
next week?

[NYCSuburbs]

So its becoming less clear cut that the cutoff low would move slowing NE sunday with the
high building in giving us nice weather for monday and most of next week. Is there even
a possibility that the low could even drift farther south and stall off the MA coast
giving us almost noreaster conditions with gusty NE winds and on and off rain early
next week?

The cut off low certainly won't be leaving the region until Tuesday at the earliest, so we'll still be dealing with the clouds, chilly daytime temperatures and rain on Monday. Afterwards, the models have been trending towards showing more influence from the ULL over the region by the middle of next week, with the ECMWF even keeping the ULL over the Mid Atlantic through next week, which IMO may be taking it a bit too far. If it does stick around, it won't produce nor'easter conditions, but it will keep mostly cloudy skies in place while trapping the leftovers of the cold air mass over the region, keeping the warmth stuck to our west, with perhaps isolated showers near the coast.

[east coast storm]

The cut off low certainly won't be leaving the region until Tuesday at the earliest, so we'll still be dealing with the clouds, chilly daytime temperatures and rain on Monday. Afterwards, the models have been trending towards showing more influence from the ULL over the region by the middle of next week, with the ECMWF even keeping the ULL over the Mid Atlantic through next week, which IMO may be taking it a bit too far. If it does stick around, it won't produce nor'easter conditions, but it will keep mostly cloudy skies in place while trapping the leftovers of the cold air mass over the region, keeping the warmth stuck to our west, with perhaps isolated showers near the coast.

Thanks for replying. I think you would agree that there has been a change in the
pattern the past day or two. The forecast a few days ago was for nice weather
for most of next week monday thru friday, partly sunny breezy and cool.
Now its on and off rain for a good part of next week. Oh well. Thats the way it is.

[east coast storm]

I would be tempted to go with the GFS as well, but it was also the one that insisted on never showed the weekend cut off low forming, instead bringing in a strong cold air mass across the entire region with a high pressure and a significant warm spell building in by Monday/Tuesday, which as we know by now, will not be the case. I do think that the ULL should eventually pull away by the mid-late week, but the ULL might stick around a little longer than the GFS has, which could complicate the scenario for mid-late next week into the weekend a little more.

As you know, theres an area of clouds and heavy showers in the ocean east of Florida.
Is there a possibility that tropical moisture could be drawn up into the ULL enhancing
the rainfall in the NE?

[NYCSuburbs]

As you know, theres an area of clouds and heavy showers in the ocean east of Florida.
Is there a possibility that tropical moisture could be drawn up into the ULL enhancing
the rainfall in the NE?

There will be some of that moisture involved in the cutoff low, but most of the moisture will stay offshore, instead hitting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

[jdrenken]

There will be some of that moisture involved in the cutoff low, but most of the moisture will stay offshore, instead hitting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Yep...according to the latest GFS, small opportunity for the moisture from the convection to the East of the Bahamas.

[The Snowman]

Hoping this is the right thread, here's 3-hour snowfall totals at 8 AM EDT Oct. 1

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[east coast storm]

Hoping this is the right thread, here's 3-hour snowfall totals at 8 AM EDT Oct. 1

Thats interesting. I just wanted to add this on. During the past hour heavy t storms
have developed, they just came out of nowhere from the jersey shore NE to just
west of me on Long Island. There is alot of thunder with those cells. Those storms
are forming along the front extending from the ULL.

[hckyplayer8]

CTP outlook. I like the attitude. Why not have record breaking snow for this time of year caused by a record making low pressure.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
5H CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE DEEPENED TO AROUND 540DAM BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY ON SAT. THAT IS 4-5 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. THE MATH BEHIND THIS MAKES THIS PRETTY MUCH A RECORD-
MAKING DEPTH FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STACKED. THE COLD CORE OF THE
SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS OH SAT AND SEEMS TO SETTLE INTO THE MTS OF WV
AND THE LAURELS SUN AM. AS THE LOW SPINS AND WOBBLES EAST THEN
NORTH THEN WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE EDGES OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THE COLD UPPER LEVELS WILL CREATE INSTABILITY. MSTR
IS HIGH /BUT NOT VERY ABNORMAL/ WITH DEEP OCEAN FETCH. NO NEED TO
GET TOO DISCRETE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT. JUST WENT FOR LIKLIES TO
CATG POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT-SUN. THE TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH
AROUND 2500FT TO GIVE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ON THOSE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WILL START
TO MENTION IT FOR NOW IN THE LAURELS. WILL ALSO MENTION IN THE
NCENT MTS...WHERE THE 00Z NAM COOLED THINGS OFF ENOUGH FOR SOME
FLAKES THERE AS WELL. SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD...SO WILL CONFINE THE MENTIONS OF S TO THAT TIME
FRAME. CONSENSUS FROM MOST MDLS AND GEFS TAKE THE UPPER LOW FAR
ENOUGH OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY TO DRY THINGS UP - EXCEPT PERHAPS
FOR SOME SCT/ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SHRA ON THE NRLY WINDS. BUT SHORT
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP THEM BRIEF AND MAY NOT PUSH IN LAND VERY FAR
AT ALL. THE TEMPS MAY GET INTO THE L-M30S OVER THE HILL TOPS THIS
WEEKEND...BUT ALL THE CLOUDS AND THE CONSTANT W-N WIND WILL MAKE
IT UNLIKELY THAT ANY FROST WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FORM. WILL KEEP
MINS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FORECASTS FOR NOW FOLLOWING THE SAME
REASONING. BUT IT WON/T BE COMFORTABLE AT ALL WITH MAXES HOLDING
IN THE 40S AND 50S SAT/SUN - 15 TO 20F BELOW NORMALS FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF OCTOBER. MONDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10F MILDER...BUT STILL
5-10F BELOW NORMALS. THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW AT EVEN THE
COLDER MOUNTAIN-TOP CO-OP SITES IS SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF
OCT 7TH-9TH. AGAIN...SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF THIS EVENT MAKING 0.1
INCHES STICK. BUT IT IS A DEEP LOW...AND THE WX AROUND THESE
PARTS HAS BEEN RATHER WILD THIS YEAR- WITH A RECORD WET
SPRING FOR MANY LOCATIONS...RECORD WET AND DESTRUCTIVE FLOODS OF
SEPTEMBER AND AROUND 30 TORNADOES THIS YEAR SO FAR.

[Mike W IN herkim...]

Projected temps here have gone up 10+ degrees since they added showers to the forecast... NWS was showing low 50s last night, now there showing low to mid 60s..

[albanyweather]

KALB:

AS OF 945 PM...THE LINE OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION. A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE
SINCE DEVELOPED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. MORE SHOWERS AND OR RAIN WAS
DEVELOPING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHERE GOOD PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ENSUING.

THE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER AIR LOW HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE...SINCE THE UPPER AIR LOW WAS MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN
EAST. A LARGE AREA OF ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

[trex]

Heavy snow being reported on Beech Mountain, 5200', right outside of Boone, NC for several hours now. Looking for several inches of the white stuff above 5,000' in VA/NC and above 4,000' in WV. Flakes are flying down to 3500'. Flurries down to 2,500' by morning.

[STEVE392]

Any chance of more rain today? Had some nice showers during the overnight hours.

[NorEaster07]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...amp;product=PNS

58.95 INCHES OF RAIN AND WATER EQUIVALENT HAS FALLEN AT CENTRAL PARK
FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29...MAKING 2011 THE EIGHTH WETTEST
YEAR RECORDED AT CENTRAL PARK. THIS IS 21.59 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL

I uploaded the data from HERE and sorted by wettest years...

So if we get no more rain till end of year we'll be in the 8th wettest. Something tells me we'll be in the Top 4 wettest years this year

To get into the Top 3 we need little over 6" of rain next 3 months. Thats possible too.

[bingobobbo]

A few days ago, I was hoping for a sunny Sunday, but of course that changed. Next thing I knew, they extended the rain threat into Monday. Now that sunny day they had predicted for Tuesday has also changed into a rainy day. We may not see the sun until Wednesday, assuming this system gets out of the way--or something new does not prolong the endless streak of overcast.