Major Hurricane Jova, 11AM PDT: CAT3 125MPH - 957MB - ENE @ 6MPH Options

[snowrawrsnow]

I was really surprised there wasn't a topic for Hurricane Jova, foretasted to make landfall along the Western Coast of Mexico as a Major Hurricane.



Jova has a well developed eye, and with mostly favorable conditions, there's no reason the system couldn't attain the expected 135 MPH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.3N 107.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.4W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 17.3N 105.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/0600Z 24.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA WOBBLING EASTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 107.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. JOVA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[NYCSuburbs]

Jova is now up to 125 mph/957 mb: Source

Jova appears to be a classic major hurricane, and with its well organized appearance and favorable environment, I see no reason why it shouldn't become a category 4. On another note, Jova would then be the 5th Category 4 hurricane of the East Pacific hurricane season. I'll check through the history records later, but I doubt that there were this many Cat4 hurricanes in most of the recent hurricane seasons.



Source

[jdrenken]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED A
UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.

RECENT REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART