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> Oct 18-21 MidAtl/NE Storm, See Current Obs Topic
phillyfan
post Oct 10 2011, 01:27 PM
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Henry Margusity:
QUOTE
If the storm on the 20th shown by the GFS were to come true, we could be talking about our first major snowstorm of the season in the Appalachians.




This post has been edited by phillyfan: Oct 10 2011, 01:28 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 10 2011, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 10 2011, 02:27 PM) *
Henry Margusity:

It's still too far out to be talking about the exact track and any snow potential, considering that we still need to nail down what happens with the ridge early next week, and whether there will be a surge of cold air in the north central US or a mostly zonal pattern afterwards, but there does appear to be a risk for a storm around this time frame.
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31B militaryPoli...
post Oct 10 2011, 01:48 PM
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12Z GFS pumps up a decent Western Ridge for a brief amount of time. This allows the trough to really dig down into the Deep South. The energy phases with northern stream energy sending a nor'easter up the coast. No other model has this at the time, 0Z Euro did have a ridge out West with deep trough in the East, but the model run ended.




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NorEaster07
post Oct 10 2011, 01:50 PM
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GFS has been consistant in showing something happening for this time frame.

Here are some runs of the GFS from last week.

GFS 6z from October 6th, Hours 336, 348, 360, 372
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GFS October 7th. Hour 348
Attached Image


GFS October 8th. Hour 264
Attached Image


Last GFS run from today.
Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Oct 10 2011, 01:51 PM
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NAO

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 10 2011, 01:53 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 10 2011, 02:51 PM) *
NAO

Attached Image

It doesn't look like this graphic is updated... the link that I use agrees with a -NAO, but varies with the PNA:

EDIT: It seems that this image also isn't updated... interesting why both of these sources haven't been updated for the last few days.

Attached Image

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 10 2011, 01:59 PM
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Niyologist
post Oct 10 2011, 01:56 PM
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QUOTE(31B militaryPolice @ Oct 10 2011, 02:48 PM) *
12Z GFS pumps up a decent Western Ridge for a brief amount of time. This allows the trough to really dig down into the Deep South. The energy phases with northern stream energy sending a nor'easter up the coast. No other model has this at the time, 0Z Euro did have a ridge out West with deep trough in the East, but the model run ended.




IF there's something similar to this later this year, then prepare for an LRC in-take. wink.gif


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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 10 2011, 02:02 PM
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The website that did update the teleconnections, the Raleigh Wx site, shows that the latest models have a +NAO becoming neutral around the 20th and slightly negative afterwards, a -PNA becoming positive, and a neutral AO becoming negative. If I remember correctly, this combination would be supportive of a potential storm followed by colder temperatures, but the teleconnection outlooks are subject to change given the time range.
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Superstorm93
post Oct 10 2011, 02:11 PM
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This would be fun...

Attached Image


Attached Image



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jdrenken
post Oct 10 2011, 02:21 PM
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It's a classic GFS vs Euro battle.

850mb
Attached Image


500mb
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NYCSuburbs
post Oct 10 2011, 05:55 PM
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18z GFS - it would be great for some if the 850 mb line actually meant the rain/snow line during this time of the year:

Attached Image


Attached Image


I'm not buying this type of storm development yet though, as I'm not sure that the GFS is handling the set up correctly after Sunday.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 10 2011, 05:55 PM
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HassayWx2306
post Oct 11 2011, 06:12 AM
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kind of want to start buying into this. I dont know yet. models are hinting cold air and moisture. let it play out a few more day I guess


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albanyweather
post Oct 11 2011, 07:46 AM
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Euro now has the storm. More of a cold front though.

Attached Image


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 0
Winter Watch: 0
Winter Warning:
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2014-2015: 0"
Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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HassayWx2306
post Oct 11 2011, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(albanyweather @ Oct 11 2011, 08:46 AM) *
Euro now has the storm. More of a cold front though.

Attached Image


Definitely early season NW lake effect snows with that set up and warm lake waters.


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jdrenken
post Oct 11 2011, 09:29 AM
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The 06Z GFS

216hr

Surface


850mb


850-700mb thickness


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jdrenken
post Oct 11 2011, 09:31 AM
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Compare the above to the 00Z GFS

The 00Z GFS

228hr...yes, I'm aware of the time difference.

Surface


850mb


850-700mb thickness


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 11 2011, 12:06 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 10 2011, 02:53 PM) *
It doesn't look like this graphic is updated... the link that I use agrees with a -NAO, but varies with the PNA:

EDIT: It seems that this image also isn't updated... interesting why both of these sources haven't been updated for the last few days.


I realized that too afterwards.. I guess it was from the holidays.

Here's the updated CPC Link. But esrl.noaa hasnt yet.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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albanyweather
post Oct 11 2011, 02:42 PM
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12z GFS and Euro are amping up nice now lol.
Attached Image

Attached Image



Attached Image

[attachment=142002:12zeuro8...SLPUS216.gif]

This post has been edited by albanyweather: Oct 11 2011, 02:43 PM
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Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 0
Winter Watch: 0
Winter Warning:
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2014-2015: 0"
Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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jdrenken
post Oct 11 2011, 02:45 PM
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For both the GFS and Euro to have an SLP almost on top of each other at 192hrs is almost...eerie..and makes it even more suspect. Not to mention the fact it's coming from a GOA low.

I'm going to have to look at the prior threads to see how much correction was done with the last GOA low that gave below normal temps in the Eastern 1/3rd CONUS.

Here is a look at where our system of choice is...
Attached Image

and will be on the 13th.
Attached Image


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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albanyweather
post Oct 11 2011, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 11 2011, 03:45 PM) *
For both the GFS and Euro to have an SLP almost on top of each other at 192hrs is almost...eerie..and makes it even more suspect. Not to mention the fact it's coming from a GOA low.

I'm going to have to look at the prior threads to see how much correction was done with the last GOA low that gave below normal temps in the Eastern 1/3rd CONUS.

Couldn't agree more on both points unsure.gif laugh.gif

Plus the same intensity. Odd to say the least.

This post has been edited by albanyweather: Oct 11 2011, 03:12 PM


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 0
Winter Watch: 0
Winter Warning:
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2014-2015: 0"
Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
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