 Oct 18-21 MidAtl/NE Storm, See Current Obs Topic |
  |
 Oct 10 2011, 01:27 PM
Post
#1
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 3,294 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448  |
Henry Margusity:
QUOTE If the storm on the 20th shown by the GFS were to come true, we could be talking about our first major snowstorm of the season in the Appalachians. This post has been edited by phillyfan: Oct 10 2011, 01:28 PM
Attached image(s)
-------------------- Severe Weather 2013
Severe T-Storm Watch: 4/24 Tornado Watch: 4/19 |
 |
 
|
|
Oct 10 2011, 01:48 PM
Post
#2
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,262 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 10 2011, 02:27 PM)  Henry Margusity: It's still too far out to be talking about the exact track and any snow potential, considering that we still need to nail down what happens with the ridge early next week, and whether there will be a surge of cold air in the north central US or a mostly zonal pattern afterwards, but there does appear to be a risk for a storm around this time frame. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
|
|
|
|
Oct 10 2011, 01:48 PM
Post
#3
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,333 Joined: 10-February 10 From: Lilburn, Ga Member No.: 21,686 |
12Z GFS pumps up a decent Western Ridge for a brief amount of time. This allows the trough to really dig down into the Deep South. The energy phases with northern stream energy sending a nor'easter up the coast. No other model has this at the time, 0Z Euro did have a ridge out West with deep trough in the East, but the model run ended.
 
-------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am proud to be an American Soldier!  Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based. |
|
|
|
|
Oct 10 2011, 01:50 PM
Post
#4
|
|||||
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,369 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
GFS has been consistant in showing something happening for this time frame.
Here are some runs of the GFS from last week. GFS 6z from October 6th, Hours 336, 348, 360, 372
GFS October 7th. Hour 348
GFS October 8th. Hour 264
Last GFS run from today.
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
Oct 10 2011, 01:51 PM
Post
#5
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,369 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
NAO
 -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
|
|
|
|
Oct 10 2011, 01:53 PM
Post
#6
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,262 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 10 2011, 02:51 PM) NAO It doesn't look like this graphic is updated... the link that I use agrees with a -NAO, but varies with the PNA: EDIT: It seems that this image also isn't updated... interesting why both of these sources haven't been updated for the last few days. 
This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 10 2011, 01:59 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
|
|
|
 Oct 10 2011, 01:56 PM
Post
#7
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,689 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(31B militaryPolice @ Oct 10 2011, 02:48 PM) 12Z GFS pumps up a decent Western Ridge for a brief amount of time. This allows the trough to really dig down into the Deep South. The energy phases with northern stream energy sending a nor'easter up the coast. No other model has this at the time, 0Z Euro did have a ridge out West with deep trough in the East, but the model run ended. IF there's something similar to this later this year, then prepare for an LRC in-take. 
-------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
|
|
|
|
Oct 10 2011, 02:02 PM
Post
#8
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,262 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
The website that did update the teleconnections, the Raleigh Wx site, shows that the latest models have a +NAO becoming neutral around the 20th and slightly negative afterwards, a -PNA becoming positive, and a neutral AO becoming negative. If I remember correctly, this combination would be supportive of a potential storm followed by colder temperatures, but the teleconnection outlooks are subject to change given the time range.
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
|
|
|
|
Oct 10 2011, 02:11 PM
Post
#9
|
|||
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
This would be fun...
-------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
||
|
|
|
||
|
Oct 10 2011, 02:21 PM
Post
#10
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Oct 10 2011, 05:55 PM
Post
#11
|
|||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,262 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
18z GFS - it would be great for some if the 850 mb line actually meant the rain/snow line during this time of the year:
I'm not buying this type of storm development yet though, as I'm not sure that the GFS is handling the set up correctly after Sunday. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Oct 10 2011, 05:55 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
||
|
|
|
||
|
Oct 11 2011, 06:12 AM
Post
#12
|
|
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,785 Joined: 29-June 10 From: Northeast Ohio Member No.: 23,068 |
kind of want to start buying into this. I dont know yet. models are hinting cold air and moisture. let it play out a few more day I guess
-------------------- 2013 Severe Weather Statistics.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches:2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: Slight Risks: 3 Moderate Risks: High Risks: |
|
|
|
|
Oct 11 2011, 07:46 AM
Post
#13
|
||
 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,037 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
Euro now has the storm. More of a cold front though.
-------------------- Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct 11 2011, 08:03 AM
Post
#14
|
||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,785 Joined: 29-June 10 From: Northeast Ohio Member No.: 23,068 |
QUOTE(albanyweather @ Oct 11 2011, 08:46 AM) Euro now has the storm. More of a cold front though.
Definitely early season NW lake effect snows with that set up and warm lake waters. -------------------- 2013 Severe Weather Statistics.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches:2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: Slight Risks: 3 Moderate Risks: High Risks: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct 11 2011, 09:29 AM
Post
#15
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Oct 11 2011, 09:31 AM
Post
#16
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Compare the above to the 00Z GFS
The 00Z GFS 228hr...yes, I'm aware of the time difference. Surface  850mb  850-700mb thickness 
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
Oct 11 2011, 12:06 PM
Post
#17
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,369 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 10 2011, 02:53 PM) It doesn't look like this graphic is updated... the link that I use agrees with a -NAO, but varies with the PNA: EDIT: It seems that this image also isn't updated... interesting why both of these sources haven't been updated for the last few days. I realized that too afterwards.. I guess it was from the holidays. Here's the updated CPC Link. But esrl.noaa hasnt yet. 
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
|
|
|
|
Oct 11 2011, 02:42 PM
Post
#18
|
|||||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,037 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
12z GFS and Euro are amping up nice now lol.
[attachment=142002:12zeuro8...SLPUS216.gif] This post has been edited by albanyweather: Oct 11 2011, 02:43 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
-------------------- Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
||||
|
|
|
||||
|
Oct 11 2011, 02:45 PM
Post
#19
|
||
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
For both the GFS and Euro to have an SLP almost on top of each other at 192hrs is almost...eerie..and makes it even more suspect. Not to mention the fact it's coming from a GOA low.
I'm going to have to look at the prior threads to see how much correction was done with the last GOA low that gave below normal temps in the Eastern 1/3rd CONUS. Here is a look at where our system of choice is...  and will be on the 13th.
-------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct 11 2011, 03:11 PM
Post
#20
|
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,037 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 11 2011, 03:45 PM) For both the GFS and Euro to have an SLP almost on top of each other at 192hrs is almost...eerie..and makes it even more suspect. Not to mention the fact it's coming from a GOA low. I'm going to have to look at the prior threads to see how much correction was done with the last GOA low that gave below normal temps in the Eastern 1/3rd CONUS. Couldn't agree more on both points   Plus the same intensity. Odd to say the least. This post has been edited by albanyweather: Oct 11 2011, 03:12 PM -------------------- Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
|
|
|
|
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:
|
Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 19th May 2013 - 09:50 AM |