Long Range Spring 2012 Outlook, Forecast and Trends Options

[jdrenken]

Source

[WeatherMonger]

Source

After clicking on the source I seen it was from Forbes. Sounded familiar, here is one of the things he said in the link I posted back on page 1

There has been a tendency for large tornado outbreaks during La Nina episodes during the January through April months. The record numbers of tornadoes in each of those months occurred during La Nina conditions, including April 2011. Of the eleven largest and most impactful tornado outbreaks since 1950 in those months, six were during La Nina, 3 during El Nino, and 2 during neutral conditions. These statistics suggest, but don't guarantee, above-average tornado activity in January-April 2012. Historically this activity occurs mainly in the Gulf Coast (excluding the Florida Peninsula), Southeast, Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley states.

The bottom line is that La Nina conditions may lead to an active January-to-April period for tornadoes in 2012, but that can't be predicted with total certainty. We can all hope that the death toll in 2012 will be way below that of 2011.

[WeatherMatrix]

The AccuWeather.com Spring Forecast is out (details)

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[stuffradio]

The AccuWeather.com Spring Forecast is out (details)

Hopefully that means I get a normal Spring or slightly above normal Spring for temps. Accuweather had the coldest winter for my area in 20 years. I didn't get that. Luckily forecasts are a crapshoot, which means I might still get my normal or above normal temperature Spring.

The Weather Network has SW BC at near normal temps and rainfall. Meaning it could be slightly below, slightly above and spot on at times.

[The Snowman]

The AccuWeather.com Spring Forecast is out (details)

Kind of reminds me of a La Nina set up, with the way the severe wx is positioned into the OV.
Seeing as how we have a changing ENSO pattern, i'm wondering if the implications still hold true with a potential neutral ENSO spring.

[TheMaineMan]

Well, one positive is that there should be a very low risk of flooding in the NE this year, considering that there is hardly any snowpack left except for the mountains and the occasional "shady" spot that never sees sun, plus the ground is already thawing quite rapidly and no sign of heavy rain as the ground continues to thaw out.

[bjo16]

so what are the odds taht this pattern continues all the way through spring and summer for the northeast? i just cant possibly ever see this lasting and having a nice warm fantastic spring. somethings gotta change and its always bad bad bad. april and may will probably be *bleep*.

[psu1313]

so what are the odds taht this pattern continues all the way through spring and summer for the northeast? i just cant possibly ever see this lasting and having a nice warm fantastic spring. somethings gotta change and its always bad bad bad. april and may will probably be *bleep*.

The answer would normally be low and it really still should be low, but since we're breaking into new territory, it really has to be:

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[Fire/Rescue]

The answer would normally be low and it really still should be low, but since we're breaking into new territory, it really has to be:

Image fits the bill just right, we will see in a few months from now

[jdrenken]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
447 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 /547 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012/

...MORE TRIVIA ON THE RECORD WARMTH...

THROUGH MARCH 19 CHICAGO HAS SEEN 5 DAYS ABOVE 80 THIS MONTH AND
4 AT ROCKFORD. IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL
ADD 2 MORE 80 DEGREE DAYS TO THE TALLY FOR BOTH CITIES.

TO HELP PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE JUST HOW UNBELIEVABLE INCREDIBLE THIS
IS...HERE ARE A FEW 80 DEGREE DAY TRIVIA STATS.

TO SEE 80 DEGREE WARMTH IS ACTUALLY NOT ALL THAT COMMON EVEN IN
APRIL...LET ALONE EARLY TO MID MARCH. CHICAGO ONLY AVERAGES ABOUT
1 DAY IN THE 80S IN APRIL EACH YEAR. IN FACT...THE MOST NUMBER OF
80 DEGREE DAYS EVER TO OCCUR IN THE MONTH OF APRIL IN CHICAGO IS 8
BACK IN 1977...SO ONLY ONCE IN 140 YEARS HAS AN APRIL PRODUCED
MORE 80 DEGREE DAYS THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MARCH!

IN ROCKFORD...80 DEGREE WARMTH IS SLIGHTLY LESS UNCOMMON IN APRIL
DUE TO THEIR GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE COOLING EFFECTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. ROCKFORD AVERAGES 3 DAYS IN THE 80S IN APRIL WITH THE
RECORD MOST NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS IN APRIL BEING 9 BACK IN
1915. THERE WERE 3 APRILS THAT HAD 7 DAYS IN THE 80S...MEANING IF
THE FORECAST FOR 2 MORE 80S THIS WEEK PANS OUT THIS MARCH WOULD BE
TIED FOR THE 3RD MOST NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS FOR APRIL!

ASSUMING WE SEE 2 MORE 80 DEGREE DAYS AS FORECAST...THEN 7 OUT OF
17 (OR ABOUT 41%) OF CHICAGOS 80 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH DATING BACK
TO 1871 WILL HAVE OCCURRED THIS YEAR. IN ROCKFORD...ASSUMING 2
MORE 80 DEGREE DAYS OCCUR...THEN 6 OUT OF 18 (OR ABOUT 33%) OF
ROCKFORDS 80 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH WILL HAVE OCCURRED THIS MONTH.

FINALLY...AS IF THE ABOVE STATISTICS WERE NOT MIND BLOWING
ENOUGH CHECK THIS OUT.

ASSUMING THE FORECASTS VERIFY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...CHICAGO`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST 21 DAYS OF
MARCH WOULD BE 53.4 DEGREES. NOT ONLY WOULD THIS SHATTER THE
RECORD FOR THE WARMEST MARCH EVER BY A LONG SHOT...BUT IT WOULD
BE TIED FOR THE 7TH WARMEST APRIL EVER IN CHICAGO! IN
ROCKFORD...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THE FIRST 21 DAYS OF MARCH WOULD
RANK ABOVE THE 19TH WARMEST APRIL EVER!

$$

IZZI

[grandpaboy]

Just crazy........


Central and North Plains look to break the most records with this warm spell as it looks the NE and MA will cool next week and probably stay in normal to just above normal for the next couple weeks........


But like they said,.....areas in the center of the country will see warmth never experienced before against averages........really insane stuff....

[jdrenken]

What was this about cold? The models never have been good at gauging snow-pack or lack of it for that matter. Keep that in mind please and remember...

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[albanyweather]

What was this about cold? The models never have been good at gauging snow-pack or lack of it for that matter. Keep that in mind please and remember...

Come on Kool-aid...good

[jdrenken]

[grandpaboy]

Everyone might have saved a buck on their heating bills this winter.......But watch all that savings fly out the window when A/C's are screaming from April thru...............???

[telejunkie]

Everyone might have saved a buck on their heating bills this winter.......But watch all that savings fly out the window when A/C's are screaming from April thru...............???

what's an A/C?..oh yeah...the thing i'll probably need to survive this year.

I've actually never had an a/c in my life, but after the past two scorching summers and what i'm expecting this one to be like...i think it's time

[Hertz]

what's an A/C?..oh yeah...the thing i'll probably need to survive this year.

I've actually never had an a/c in my life, but after the past two scorching summers and what i'm expecting this one to be like...i think it's time

Might be a bit early to call another hot summer, I think? Or are you just going by the CPC graphic?

Plus, Vermont was not even close to the worst place (either of) the last two summers as far as heat is concerned (and I'm considering this by departure from normal, not actual temperature, so that's not a statement that's true just because it's further north).

Using Burlington and Montpelier as base checking cities, both summers were just 1F to 2F warmer than normal with only one or two major heat spells that far north. Compared to the hottest summer on record in many places further south in 2010, and among the top ten hottest in 2011, with July of both years flirting with or breaking the record for hottest month ever.

Philadelphia, for instance, 2010 was the hottest summer ever, June the hottest June ever and July within a half degree of the record, then 2011 was again much above normal and even though the whole season fell short of the 2010 record, July 2011 broke the record for hottest July and month ever.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Mar 22 2012, 07:03 PM

[jdrenken]

Might be a bit early to call another hot summer, I think? Or are you just going by the CPC graphic?

Plus, Vermont was not even close to the worst place (either of) the last two summers as far as heat is concerned (and I'm considering this by departure from normal, not actual temperature, so that's not a statement that's true just because it's further north).

Using Burlington and Montpelier as base checking cities, both summers were just 1F to 2F warmer than normal with only one or two major heat spells that far north. Compared to the hottest summer on record in many places further south in 2010, and among the top ten hottest in 2011, with July of both years flirting with or breaking the record for hottest month ever.

Philadelphia, for instance, 2010 was the hottest summer ever, June the hottest June ever and July within a half degree of the record, then 2011 was again much above normal and even though the whole season fell short of the 2010 record, July 2011 broke the record for hottest July and month ever.

sigh...

Hot in one region could be totally different than hot in another. Not to mention the fact that JB is pushing for a cold summer...so do we believe him just as much as we believe the CPC? Let me look back during this past winter...um...I know my answer.

[Hertz]

sigh...

Hot in one region could be totally different than hot in another. Not to mention the fact that JB is pushing for a cold summer...so do we believe him just as much as we believe the CPC? Let me look back during this past winter...um...I know my answer.

JB did call this record-obliterating warm spell well in advance, forecasting a record-warm March on record over a vast area (now almost certain to verify). Per Twitter and Weathebell. I don't think anyone really got the winter...even the CPC had cold back to the north and west which didn't work. And it was quite warm IIRC in the Southwest, which of all areas was actually not that far from normal. Certainly anything but a "center point" of above normal anomalies. I also recall it did not catch the extent of cold in the previous winter either, confining it all north and west, while in reality that did not happen at all in December and January as cold encompassed the East. As a final point, I recall it had cool spots in parts of the MW/OV for both of its past two summer outlooks (2010 and 2011), neither time verified and both were in fact warmer (hotter) than normal. At least in 2010 JB was forecasting a very hot summer.

I don't say either is right or wrong all the time, but the bottom line is nor do I see why the CPC should be believed in its every word and JB ignored. I'd more say they both win sometimes, and both lose sometimes.

I personally don't see any clear sign for summer at this point - neither towards a mild year or a scorcher - and also even CPC has the above normal area trimmed down considerably in JJA compared to AMJ. If you see signs one way or the other, feel free to point them out - it's what these threads are for. But so far I've just seen implied predictions with nothing solid to back them.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Mar 22 2012, 08:37 PM

[jdrenken]

JB did call this record-obliterating warm spell well in advance, forecasting a record-warm March on record over a vast area (now almost certain to verify). Per Twitter and Weathebell. I don't think anyone really got the winter...even the CPC had cold back to the north and west which didn't work. And it was quite warm IIRC in the Southwest, which of all areas was actually not that far from normal. Certainly anything but a "center point" of above normal anomalies. I also recall it did not catch the extent of cold in the previous winter either, confining it all north and west, while in reality that did not happen at all in December and January as cold encompassed the East.

As a final point, I recall it had cool spots in parts of the MW/OV for both of its past two summer outlooks (2010 and 2011), neither time verified and both were in fact warmer (hotter) than normal. At least in 2010 JB was forecasting a very hot summer.

I don't say either is right or wrong all the time, but the bottom line is nor do I see why the CPC should be believed in its every word and JB ignored. I'd more say they both win sometimes, and both lose sometimes.

I personally don't see any clear sign for summer at this point - neither towards a mild year or a scorcher - and also even CPC has the above normal area trimmed down considerably in JJA compared to AMJ. If you see signs one way or the other, feel free to point them out - it's what these threads are for. But so far I've just seen implied predictions with nothing to back them.

In a word to all of this post...

whatever...

Don't spout off like did on the last sentence when you are just as guilty.