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#1
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,563 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
The CPC winter outlook 2011/2012 mentions the possibility of spring flooding due to the increased moisture in the Northern Plains.
QUOTE Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Spring flooding could be a concern in parts of this region;
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,563 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
Implications abound this spring with above normal precipitation during the winter for the Northern Plains and Rockies. A repeat of 2011 flooding...time will tell. Hopefully 2012 spring doesn't have the same above normal precipitation anomalies that 2011 had.
LRC Winter Precipitation forecast ![]() -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#3
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 62 Joined: 25-July 10 Member No.: 23,239 ![]() |
Well I think anyone in the Northeast (including New England) could see a prolonged drought this year. Think about it: We had weather extremes in 2011. Record setting total snow for Jan. 2011, tornadoes in New England, TS Irene, flooding, and the record Oct. 2011 snowstorm also in New England. And I think 2011 has been very wet aside from Irene. So what is there left for extremes? Well, an ice storm and a drought. There has also been a major drought in the south.
I do look at Brett's long range interpretations and I look at the GFS. For the next two weeks or so, on average, very little precipitation is coming to this region especially New England. Now, I am not saying this is the start of the drought (we still need a month or two of very little precip to put a dent in all the rain we got in 2011) but this could be hinting at it. If the rest of this winter is dry, and spring is dry, we could be looking at a drought. The severity of a drought, I don't know. There could be a three (or longer) month period with very little precip. I am not saying a drought will come this year, but one could come anytime in the next 5 years. Weather has been extreme in 2011, so I see little reason why we won't experience a drought someday. Spring 2012 could very well be dry for at least a part of this region. The long range model that Brett interprets from, doesn't look very well for a wet spring. If it is a dry winter or even a kind a snowy one, I can still see a dry spring. This post has been edited by NewEnglander: Jan 2 2012, 04:33 PM |
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,038 Joined: 29-June 11 From: Oshkosh, WI Member No.: 25,792 ![]() |
I have a feeling this years LRC will lead to a warm and humid summer here in WI.
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#5
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,448 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
Forbes talks a lot about La Nina tornado outbreaks. A whole page worth of stuff. Source
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#6
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 11,225 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Grand Forks,ND Member No.: 16,148 ![]() |
For the NE/Northern Mid Atl
Weakening Nina in the later stages. NAO that should be more neutral/negative rather than positive. PNA that continues to be in a rather neutral state. Think as we sit, its a fair bet we stay warm/normal until the later parts of Spring...maybe early Summer before switching to a more normal/cool state. This post has been edited by hckyplayer8: Feb 3 2012, 09:59 AM -------------------- The opinions in my posts are of my own and do not represent those of the USAF.
Grand Forks AFB 2015-2016 Snowfall - 28.85" 52 days of trace |
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,107 Joined: 14-May 10 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 22,778 ![]() |
For the NE/Northern Mid Atl Weakening Nina in the later stages. NAO that should be more neutral/negative rather than positive. PNA that continues to be in a rather neutral state. Think as we sit, its a fair bet we stay warm/normal until the later parts of Spring...maybe early Summer before switching to a more normal/cool state. I would think the indices you described may support some overall warmth (as in, still above normal temps), but probably not as dramatically above normal (at least by mid-spring) as it has been over the winter/late fall. Would you concur? (And boy do I hope early summer prediction holds!) -------------------- Let's hope this winter actually happens!
Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night) Tornado watches: 11/17 Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10 Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31 Moderate Risk days: 11/17 High Risk days: Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17) |
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#8
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 11,225 Joined: 13-November 08 From: Grand Forks,ND Member No.: 16,148 ![]() |
I would think the indices you described may support some overall warmth (as in, still above normal temps), but probably not as dramatically above normal (at least by mid-spring) as it has been over the winter/late fall. Would you concur? (And boy do I hope early summer prediction holds!) Yeah. From what I see the first half should be on the warmer side of the scale. Then slowly tapering off to normal or slightly below conditions as Summer rounds the bend. -------------------- The opinions in my posts are of my own and do not represent those of the USAF.
Grand Forks AFB 2015-2016 Snowfall - 28.85" 52 days of trace |
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#9
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 7,173 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Norman, OK Member No.: 24,567 ![]() |
Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)?
Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it. -------------------- Annual Snowfall
2014-2015: 46" 2013-2014: 69.5" 2012-2013: 37'' Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24" Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18" |
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#10
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![]() Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 339 Joined: 7-August 11 Member No.: 25,873 ![]() |
Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)? Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it. Yeah I think that the country is in for an exciting spring severe weather season. I was wondering why this forum hasn't been hopping as of late. I'd figure that some forecasts would've popped up by now. The one thing I am absolutely dreading though is that the pattern changes to a cold and wet one in time for spring, unleashing EVEN MORE cold rain. That would stink. This post has been edited by USA Weather: Feb 4 2012, 12:01 PM -------------------- Hi.
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,112 Joined: 22-October 11 Member No.: 26,121 ![]() |
Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)? Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it. Would be a recipe for both stronger wind fields and increased instability within warm sectors. |
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,563 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)? Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it. More than likely, because of the busted LR forecast for this winter everyone is more cautious. -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,145 Joined: 12-March 10 Member No.: 22,300 ![]() |
I'm very concerned about drought in my region. We will need a particularly wet spring in order to avoid one. This is mainly due to lack of snowfall / pre-mature thawing of what little snowpack there is/was.
-------------------- Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches 2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches 2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches 2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches 2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches 2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches 2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F Total snowfall 2013-2014 season: October: None November: 1 inch December: 31 inches January: 8 inches |
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,563 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
Spring flood outlook has been released by LSX. Lower than normal probability due to the obvious snow pack departures.
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#15
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 21,448 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 ![]() |
Spring flood outlook has been released by LSX. Lower than normal probability due to the obvious snow pack departures. I hope that holds true for all of the river basins in and around the tri states area, not that I'd ever root for a flooding situation anywhere. I don't know how they've been elsewhere, but the buffalo gnats have been horrid around here for the past 3-4 years largely in part to the breeding grounds brought on by all the flooding and high waters. This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Feb 18 2012, 11:33 AM |
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,563 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
TornadoTitans blog post.
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,716 Joined: 11-December 11 From: PA Member No.: 26,255 ![]() |
More active serve weather?
-------------------- PA FF/EMT
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#18
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 24,292 Joined: 27-February 08 From: Brooklyn,NY Member No.: 14,017 ![]() |
JB
QUOTE SOI indicates La nina fading and its effects will not be like last spring with mega severe weather. More like 2009 -------------------- Anthony
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#19
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,006 Joined: 19-February 08 Member No.: 13,803 ![]() |
Spring of 2009 was almost as cold, wet & crappy in the northeast and mid-Atlantic as last spring. I hope we don't get a repeat. We're due for a dry to at least moderate spring in this part of the country. Last year in particular was an absolute washout. I was surprised that there wasn't more flooding here in the Pittsburgh area between the months of April and May. I don't think I've ever witnessed so many prolonged periods of seemingly endless precipitation in my life as I did last spring.
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
JB I'll gladly take 10 consecutive winters even worse than this one with 1" snowfall each in Central Park, frequent 60+ degree temperatures without a single complaint as long as we see nothing close to a repeat of the "summer" of 2009... I'll take ANYTHING except for that year ![]() Seriously, there were actually days during that "summer" that had colder high temperatures than this "winter"... |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 24th April 2018 - 03:50 AM |