Long Range Spring 2012 Outlook, Forecast and Trends Options

[jdrenken]

The CPC winter outlook 2011/2012 mentions the possibility of spring flooding due to the increased moisture in the Northern Plains.

Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Spring flooding could be a concern in parts of this region;

[jdrenken]

Implications abound this spring with above normal precipitation during the winter for the Northern Plains and Rockies. A repeat of 2011 flooding...time will tell. Hopefully 2012 spring doesn't have the same above normal precipitation anomalies that 2011 had.

LRC Winter Precipitation forecast

[NewEnglander]

Well I think anyone in the Northeast (including New England) could see a prolonged drought this year. Think about it: We had weather extremes in 2011. Record setting total snow for Jan. 2011, tornadoes in New England, TS Irene, flooding, and the record Oct. 2011 snowstorm also in New England. And I think 2011 has been very wet aside from Irene. So what is there left for extremes? Well, an ice storm and a drought. There has also been a major drought in the south.

I do look at Brett's long range interpretations and I look at the GFS. For the next two weeks or so, on average, very little precipitation is coming to this region especially New England. Now, I am not saying this is the start of the drought (we still need a month or two of very little precip to put a dent in all the rain we got in 2011) but this could be hinting at it. If the rest of this winter is dry, and spring is dry, we could be looking at a drought. The severity of a drought, I don't know. There could be a three (or longer) month period with very little precip.

I am not saying a drought will come this year, but one could come anytime in the next 5 years. Weather has been extreme in 2011, so I see little reason why we won't experience a drought someday.

Spring 2012 could very well be dry for at least a part of this region. The long range model that Brett interprets from, doesn't look very well for a wet spring. If it is a dry winter or even a kind a snowy one, I can still see a dry spring.

This post has been edited by NewEnglander: Jan 2 2012, 04:33 PM

[OSNW3]

I have a feeling this years LRC will lead to a warm and humid summer here in WI.

[WeatherMonger]

Forbes talks a lot about La Nina tornado outbreaks. A whole page worth of stuff. Source

[hckyplayer8]

For the NE/Northern Mid Atl

Weakening Nina in the later stages.
NAO that should be more neutral/negative rather than positive.
PNA that continues to be in a rather neutral state.

Think as we sit, its a fair bet we stay warm/normal until the later parts of Spring...maybe early Summer before switching to a more normal/cool state.

This post has been edited by hckyplayer8: Feb 3 2012, 09:59 AM

[Hertz]

For the NE/Northern Mid Atl

Weakening Nina in the later stages.
NAO that should be more neutral/negative rather than positive.
PNA that continues to be in a rather neutral state.

Think as we sit, its a fair bet we stay warm/normal until the later parts of Spring...maybe early Summer before switching to a more normal/cool state.

I would think the indices you described may support some overall warmth (as in, still above normal temps), but probably not as dramatically above normal (at least by mid-spring) as it has been over the winter/late fall.

Would you concur?

(And boy do I hope early summer prediction holds!)

[hckyplayer8]

I would think the indices you described may support some overall warmth (as in, still above normal temps), but probably not as dramatically above normal (at least by mid-spring) as it has been over the winter/late fall.

Would you concur?

(And boy do I hope early summer prediction holds!)

Yeah. From what I see the first half should be on the warmer side of the scale. Then slowly tapering off
to normal or slightly below conditions as Summer rounds the bend.

[The Snowman]

Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)?
Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it.

[USA Weather]

Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)?
Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it.

Yeah I think that the country is in for an exciting spring severe weather season. I was wondering why this forum hasn't been hopping as of late. I'd figure that some forecasts would've popped up by now. The one thing I am absolutely dreading though is that the pattern changes to a cold and wet one in time for spring, unleashing EVEN MORE cold rain. That would stink.

This post has been edited by USA Weather: Feb 4 2012, 12:01 PM

[andyhb]

Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)?
Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it.

Would be a recipe for both stronger wind fields and increased instability within warm sectors.

[jdrenken]

Am I the only one here concerned about the severe weather risk from unreleased cold air and above-avg Gulf (temp wise)?
Not trying to have an attitude, but I haven't seen too much talk on it.

More than likely, because of the busted LR forecast for this winter everyone is more cautious.

[TheMaineMan]

I'm very concerned about drought in my region. We will need a particularly wet spring in order to avoid one. This is mainly due to lack of snowfall / pre-mature thawing of what little snowpack there is/was.

[jdrenken]

Spring flood outlook has been released by LSX. Lower than normal probability due to the obvious snow pack departures.

[WeatherMonger]

Spring flood outlook has been released by LSX. Lower than normal probability due to the obvious snow pack departures.

I hope that holds true for all of the river basins in and around the tri states area, not that I'd ever root for a flooding situation anywhere. I don't know how they've been elsewhere, but the buffalo gnats have been horrid around here for the past 3-4 years largely in part to the breeding grounds brought on by all the flooding and high waters.

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Feb 18 2012, 11:33 AM

[jdrenken]

TornadoTitans blog post.

[DiehardFF]

More active serve weather?

[SnowMan11]

JB

SOI indicates La nina fading and its effects will not be like last spring with mega severe weather. More like 2009

[snowsux]

Spring of 2009 was almost as cold, wet & crappy in the northeast and mid-Atlantic as last spring. I hope we don't get a repeat. We're due for a dry to at least moderate spring in this part of the country. Last year in particular was an absolute washout. I was surprised that there wasn't more flooding here in the Pittsburgh area between the months of April and May. I don't think I've ever witnessed so many prolonged periods of seemingly endless precipitation in my life as I did last spring.

[NYCSuburbs]

JB

I'll gladly take 10 consecutive winters even worse than this one with 1" snowfall each in Central Park, frequent 60+ degree temperatures without a single complaint as long as we see nothing close to a repeat of the "summer" of 2009... I'll take ANYTHING except for that year

Seriously, there were actually days during that "summer" that had colder high temperatures than this "winter"...