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> Long Range Spring 2012 Outlook, Forecast and Trends
USA Weather
post Feb 20 2012, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 20 2012, 07:52 PM) *
I'll gladly take 10 consecutive winters even worse than this one with 1" snowfall each in Central Park, frequent 60+ degree temperatures without a single complaint as long as we see nothing close to a repeat of the "summer" of 2009... I'll take ANYTHING except for that year laugh.gif

Seriously, there were actually days during that "summer" that had colder high temperatures than this "winter"...

I seem to remember that the July of that year averaged 68.5 degrees out near here. That was crazy. I remember days where I would refuse doing any outdoor activities such as going to the pool as it was so cold out.


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snowsux
post Feb 21 2012, 01:20 AM
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QUOTE(USA Weather @ Feb 20 2012, 09:00 PM) *
I seem to remember that the July of that year averaged 68.5 degrees out near here. That was crazy. I remember days where I would refuse doing any outdoor activities such as going to the pool as it was so cold out.


2009 was a lousy weather year here in western PA, but nothing compared to the nightmare that was spring/summer 2011. Try running a sealcoating business in that weather. We literally lost the months of April and May due to the rain. I mean LOST. That's absolutely unheard of, even in what would be considered a "wet" year. 2011 took the cake hands-down. God, I hope it doesn't happen again this year. I just want normal spring weather for a change.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 21 2012, 01:41 AM
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la nina is all but turned to ruble
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Noreastericane
post Feb 21 2012, 09:26 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 20 2012, 08:52 PM) *
I'll gladly take 10 consecutive winters even worse than this one with 1" snowfall each in Central Park, frequent 60+ degree temperatures without a single complaint as long as we see nothing close to a repeat of the "summer" of 2009... I'll take ANYTHING except for that year laugh.gif

Seriously, there were actually days during that "summer" that had colder high temperatures than this "winter"...


What!? Summer 2009 was awesome! I loved it! In fact, I'd say the 12 month period from March 2009 to February 2010 was the best weather period in my life here.

This spring I'm anticipating nearly constant death ridge blowtorch temps, punctuated by multiple severe weather outbreaks that leave me without power for days. In other words, a repeat of last year. sad.gif


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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 21 2012, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE(Noreastericane @ Feb 21 2012, 09:26 AM) *
What!? Summer 2009 was awesome! I loved it! In fact, I'd say the 12 month period from March 2009 to February 2010 was the best weather period in my life here.

This spring I'm anticipating nearly constant death ridge blowtorch temps, punctuated by multiple severe weather outbreaks that leave me without power for days. In other words, a repeat of last year. sad.gif

It all comes down to each person's preferences; I have no problem with a summer without hot temperatures, just 80 degrees and sunny, but that summer it rained almost all the time and temperatures were constantly chilly; I could barely even go outdoors on some days because it was just too chilly and rainy to do regular summer activities. And there were barely any thunderstorms.

Hopefully this summer isn't as hot, but the only thing I am expecting and would be surprised if I'm wrong with is that I won't see any severe thunderstorm this year, probably because somehow I never do while everyone around me easily sees at least 2 severe thunderstorms per year.
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The Snowman
post Feb 21 2012, 04:46 PM
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A bit OT, but the warm winter and already warmer than normal GOM should keep the GOM residents wary...


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Niyologist
post Feb 21 2012, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 20 2012, 11:26 AM) *
JB


Had a feeling that was going to happen. It's seems that we have done a 1997-2002 cycle repeat, with some mixture effects of 2009-2011. Could we have a 2002-2003 repeat for next winter? Only one way to find out.


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thedarkestclouds
post Feb 21 2012, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 21 2012, 09:34 AM) *
It all comes down to each person's preferences; I have no problem with a summer without hot temperatures, just 80 degrees and sunny, but that summer it rained almost all the time and temperatures were constantly chilly; I could barely even go outdoors on some days because it was just too chilly and rainy to do regular summer activities. And there were barely any thunderstorms.

Hopefully this summer isn't as hot, but the only thing I am expecting and would be surprised if I'm wrong with is that I won't see any severe thunderstorm this year, probably because somehow I never do while everyone around me easily sees at least 2 severe thunderstorms per year.


At least we got one month of summer (August) that year. This winter we're not even getting that.
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 21 2012, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(thedarkestclouds @ Feb 21 2012, 09:30 PM) *
At least we got one month of summer (August) that year. This winter we're not even getting that.

True, although I forgot about it since the only week that there actually was a summer that year, I happened to be away on a vacation which not so coincidentally was ruined by cold and rain...

Although the last thing I'd hope for is for another round of deadly tornado outbreaks, I'm just hoping that there will actually be a decent storm to track (as in rain, wind and maybe some thunder but no huge severe wx outbreak). Ever since the pattern changed in early February, the pattern has become even less favorable for phasing, and quiet in general with no moderate-big storm activity in the East. I can see how there could be some more rain activity by March and April, but that could perhaps draw the line between an average/wetter than average summer or drier than average conditions.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 22 2012, 08:15 AM
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From Steve D
"There are significant signs of an El Nino returning in time for the summer".. he adds it will be slow to develop and thinks mid to late summer.



"I expect Spring and the start of Summer to feature La Nina like tendencies, in other words a nice ridge in the East followed by an invasion of more troughs into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by around July and August that could lead to some active severe thunderstorm potential"




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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 22 2012, 09:15 AM
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Is it time for "Fishing" yet?

Come on Spring tongue.gif
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SnowMan11
post Feb 22 2012, 09:33 AM
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jdrenken
post Feb 22 2012, 01:04 PM
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Call it a hunch...but I would depend on the NAEFS temp probabilities before the others. wink.gif

Verification...all in the verification. For those who want to know...just look deep into the Winter Weather 2011/2012 thread.


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stuffradio
post Feb 22 2012, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 22 2012, 06:33 AM) *

Isn't that moderate to strong Nino territory?
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SnowMan11
post Feb 22 2012, 03:32 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Feb 22 2012, 01:07 PM) *
Isn't that moderate to strong Nino territory?


Looks weak- moderate to me wink.gif


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snowsux
post Feb 24 2012, 12:22 AM
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With meteorological winter coming to an end next week, I would have thought I'd see some more action in this thread. Come on guys. Any ideas about what's on tap for us in March, April & May? Scouring the models for any signs of a snowstorm right now seem like a futile effort at best. We've got a fresh, new Spring awaiting us, and yet little to no prognosticating going on! I know a lot of you guys are bummed about winter, but it's over.....time to move on to spring!
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Celtic Spring
post Feb 24 2012, 02:29 PM
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2009, looking at general wx patterns and ENSO looks like a good analogue. Around here, March was cool and wet, April was warmer and dry, and May was closer to normal.


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1. Days start getting shorter.
2. Trees start changing color.
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4. First sub-70 high temperature.
5. First frost.
6. First sub-60 high temperature.
7. First freeze.
8. Leaf-drop complete.
9. First flakes.
10. WINTER!
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psu1313
post Feb 25 2012, 11:32 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Feb 24 2012, 12:22 AM) *
With meteorological winter coming to an end next week, I would have thought I'd see some more action in this thread. Come on guys. Any ideas about what's on tap for us in March, April & May? Scouring the models for any signs of a snowstorm right now seem like a futile effort at best. We've got a fresh, new Spring awaiting us, and yet little to no prognosticating going on! I know a lot of you guys are bummed about winter, but it's over.....time to move on to spring!


March should be much of the same especially across the east. Look for troughs to swing through but most of the cold will be moderated by the time it gets to the East. Also, March should feature some warmer periods as storms track to the west of the Appalachians. The pattern looks to remain for at least another 3-4 weeks as the polar vortex slides back to Alaska..shocker....

A sure fire prediction. Temps will slowly warm across the United States on average! tongue.gif

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Niyologist
post Feb 25 2012, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 22 2012, 08:15 AM) *
From Steve D
"There are significant signs of an El Nino returning in time for the summer".. he adds it will be slow to develop and thinks mid to late summer.



"I expect Spring and the start of Summer to feature La Nina like tendencies, in other words a nice ridge in the East followed by an invasion of more troughs into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by around July and August that could lead to some active severe thunderstorm potential"


Yup, definitely see this happening. La Nina sorta overstayed her welcoming time. It may not seem like El Nino won't show up now, but just wait until June. It'll become pretty obvious/apparent that it'll happen.


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post Feb 26 2012, 08:24 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Feb 21 2012, 04:25 PM) *
Had a feeling that was going to happen. It's seems that we have done a 1997-2002 cycle repeat, with some mixture effects of 2009-2011. Could we have a 2002-2003 repeat for next winter? Only one way to find out.


That would be sweet; Nashville had a great Winter 2002/2003; course, anything would be considered great compared to Winter 2011/2012 laugh.gif
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