Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

13 Pages V  « < 2 3 4 5 6 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> Long Range Spring 2012 Outlook, Forecast and Trends
WeatherMonger
post Mar 22 2012, 09:33 PM
Post #61




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,662
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





I asked about it in the 11/12 winter thread, and it pretty much verified, but the LRC has been showing this cycle to continue. Whether you buy into the LRC or not, there is definitely something to it. These record highs across the midwest have been cycling all through fall/winter. I hate to see what the April, May and June temps will look like. It doesn't necessarily mean we'll see excessive heat but above average is a likely bet.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Hertz
post Mar 22 2012, 10:13 PM
Post #62




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,107
Joined: 14-May 10
From: Cleveland, OH
Member No.: 22,778





QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 22 2012, 10:33 PM) *
I asked about it in the 11/12 winter thread, and it pretty much verified, but the LRC has been showing this cycle to continue. Whether you buy into the LRC or not, there is definitely something to it. These record highs across the midwest have been cycling all through fall/winter. I hate to see what the April, May and June temps will look like. It doesn't necessarily mean we'll see excessive heat but above average is a likely bet.


I agree above average seems more likely than below (extending further west than CPC shows like you are stating) but super-warmth has sometimes turned on a dime and many times moderated considerably after a while so blowtorch (much above average) is still no guarantee.


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stuffradio
post Mar 22 2012, 10:34 PM
Post #63




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,016
Joined: 12-September 08
From: SW BC, Canada
Member No.: 15,716





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 22 2012, 05:51 PM) *
sigh...

Hot in one region could be totally different than hot in another. Not to mention the fact that JB is pushing for a cold summer...so do we believe him just as much as we believe the CPC? Let me look back during this past winter...um...I know my answer. rolleyes.gif

The Japanese model is pushing for the cold summer in the east
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 22 2012, 10:37 PM
Post #64




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,753
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(stuffradio @ Mar 22 2012, 10:34 PM) *
The Japanese model is pushing for the cold summer in the east


I know which model he was pushing. Shoot...he pushed it all winter long for how it showed a monster storm. wink.gif

Going further...the Japanese predictions for the past winter were warm in the CONUS...yet JB kept trying to serve the blue raspberry kool-aide and monster storms that the actual JMA was forecasting. hmmm
Attached File(s)
Attached File  062011_Predicted_DJF.JPG ( 86.81K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Mar 23 2012, 09:25 AM
Post #65




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,074
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(Hertz @ Mar 22 2012, 07:01 PM) *
Might be a bit early to call another hot summer, I think? Or are you just going by the CPC graphic?

Plus, Vermont was not even close to the worst place (either of) the last two summers as far as heat is concerned (and I'm considering this by departure from normal, not actual temperature, so that's not a statement that's true just because it's further north).

Using Burlington and Montpelier as base checking cities, both summers were just 1F to 2F warmer than normal with only one or two major heat spells that far north. Compared to the hottest summer on record in many places further south in 2010, and among the top ten hottest in 2011, with July of both years flirting with or breaking the record for hottest month ever.

Philadelphia, for instance, 2010 was the hottest summer ever, June the hottest June ever and July within a half degree of the record, then 2011 was again much above normal and even though the whole season fell short of the 2010 record, July 2011 broke the record for hottest July and month ever.


No, Vermont didn't see the 100-110F+ heat that some experienced in the MA, but when you're trying to read to the kids at night with windows open and ceiling fans rocking and it's still over 80F in the room...you sure as heck remember those nights. Taking a cold shower just before going to bed to try to stop sweating...it sucks. While that has happened in the past...it occurred way more regularly the past two summers. DPs & overnight lows are really what I remember more than daytime highs. I can live with 90s just fine as long as night time temps fall back into the 60s.
Yup...too early to call it a hot summer because we can't really see the future, but unless we get some changes in the pattern I think we'll be in for some more serious hot spells as we head towards the solstice & beyond...


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/15 - 11"
1/2 - 11"
1/25 - 5"
2/5 - 9"
2/14 - 17"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grandpaboy
post Mar 23 2012, 10:09 PM
Post #66




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,522
Joined: 24-January 08
From: 39.96N, 74.2W
Member No.: 12,978





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 22 2012, 11:37 PM) *
I know which model he was pushing. Shoot...he pushed it all winter long for how it showed a monster storm. wink.gif

Going further...the Japanese predictions for the past winter were warm in the CONUS...yet JB kept trying to serve the blue raspberry kool-aide and monster storms that the actual JMA was forecasting. hmmm



laugh.gif

love the blue raspberry kool-aide reference....


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 25 2012, 02:36 PM
Post #67




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,753
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521








Attached File(s)
Attached File  25MAR12_NAEFS.JPG ( 160.76K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stuffradio
post Mar 25 2012, 04:38 PM
Post #68




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,016
Joined: 12-September 08
From: SW BC, Canada
Member No.: 15,716





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 25 2012, 12:36 PM) *



A sign that the heat is shifting more westward away from the East Coast?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Hertz
post Mar 25 2012, 09:51 PM
Post #69




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,107
Joined: 14-May 10
From: Cleveland, OH
Member No.: 22,778





QUOTE(stuffradio @ Mar 25 2012, 05:38 PM) *
A sign that the heat is shifting more westward away from the East Coast?


Actually recent models have tended to show that during the first week of April, and into the second week, colder weather in the west spreads further eastward but is still more intermittent/transient with eastward extent (with the backdoor type pattern predicted over the east for the end of March breaking down). While I'm not buying this turning into a "pattern of extremes" at this point, as in any type of pattern where there isn't even intermittent progression of colder weather further eastward following frontal passages, I would not be at all surprised from the current look if April has some NW-SE gradient between cooler and warmer temperatures, or maybe more just a W-(S)E gradient given the lack of snow cover up north where it would be expected.

Though they haven't worked great lately in general, some ENSO analogs I'm considering (1951, 1957, 2009, to name three that come right up in my head) support this tendency for mid and/or late spring weather. I also have 1945 in mind, although it's little known the ENSO state at that point, the March pattern resembles a bit less extreme form of this year's monster warmth and April of that year fits something I could envision happening.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Mar 25 2012, 09:58 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Mar 26 2012, 10:53 AM
Post #70




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,374
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 22 2012, 11:37 PM) *
I know which model he was pushing. Shoot...he pushed it all winter long for how it showed a monster storm. wink.gif

Going further...the Japanese predictions for the past winter were warm in the CONUS...yet JB kept trying to serve the blue raspberry kool-aide and monster storms that the actual JMA was forecasting. hmmm

I didn't see any comments on the verification but as far as I can see that is an awesome verification of the past winter by the JMA from back in June 2011. It nailed the USA, much of Canda and also Alaska. I know there may be some misses but as far as I can see it was pretty dead on for the Northern Hemisphere. Got the cold in Europe, Northern Africa, and much of Asia which IMHO was very accurate from 6 to 9 months out.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  062011_Predicted_DJF.JPG ( 86.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grandpaboy
post Mar 26 2012, 12:47 PM
Post #71




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,522
Joined: 24-January 08
From: 39.96N, 74.2W
Member No.: 12,978





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 26 2012, 11:53 AM) *
I didn't see any comments on the verification but as far as I can see that is an awesome verification of the past winter by the JMA from back in June 2011. It nailed the USA, much of Canda and also Alaska. I know there may be some misses but as far as I can see it was pretty dead on for the Northern Hemisphere. Got the cold in Europe, Northern Africa, and much of Asia which IMHO was very accurate from 6 to 9 months out.



But if JB is using this to verfiy......then I guess back in June when it spit this map.........he threw it out........ wink.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Mar 26 2012, 01:04 PM
Post #72




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,374
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Mar 26 2012, 01:47 PM) *
But if JB is using this to verfiy......then I guess back in June when it spit this map.........he threw it out........ wink.gif

You would be correct. His winter forecast should have been "no winter" for 85% of the USA if he is a big JMA fan. laugh.gif

But even without focusing on what JB predicted the JMA did a tremendous job with its prediction of the USA and entire Northern Hemisphere for winter 2011/2012 back in June 2011. Not perfect but not a whole lot wrong either. For the USA- Arizona & NM should have been cooler and while most of Texas was above normal the core of the warmth should have been further north in the N. Plains. But other than that bit of nitpicking in hindsight we should of all looked at the JMA last June and said "forget the winter of 2011 /2012 and onto the next". laugh.gif


Attached File(s)
Attached File  cd10_16_0_56_85_11_47_13_prcp.png ( 126.34K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Hertz
post Mar 26 2012, 03:35 PM
Post #73




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,107
Joined: 14-May 10
From: Cleveland, OH
Member No.: 22,778





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 26 2012, 02:04 PM) *
You would be correct. His winter forecast should have been "no winter" for 85% of the USA if he is a big JMA fan. laugh.gif

But even without focusing on what JB predicted the JMA did a tremendous job with its prediction of the USA and entire Northern Hemisphere for winter 2011/2012 back in June 2011. Not perfect but not a whole lot wrong either. For the USA- Arizona & NM should have been cooler and while most of Texas was above normal the core of the warmth should have been further north in the N. Plains. But other than that bit of nitpicking in hindsight we should of all looked at the JMA last June and said "forget the winter of 2011 /2012 and onto the next". laugh.gif


Yeah it had it right except the cold in the northwest should've been displaced into the southwest (if anywhere, even there it turned out near normal I think).


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 26 2012, 05:02 PM
Post #74




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,753
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





I am very confused with the CPC's newest 6-10 and 8-14 day temp outlooks. As if they are believing the GFS 100%.



Normal highs at JFK this time of year is mid 50's.

Bridgeport is lower-mid 50's.

Perfect example...just a "small" difference.

GEFS
Attached File  12Z_26MAR12_GEFS.JPG ( 119.28K ) Number of downloads: 1


GFS
Attached File  12Z_26MAR12_GFS.JPG ( 120.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


A bright spot though is that the NAEFS red hues have gotten lighter.

00Z


12Z


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Slightly Weather...
post Mar 27 2012, 03:29 PM
Post #75




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 31
Joined: 31-January 11
From: Lima, OH
Member No.: 25,323





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 26 2012, 05:02 PM) *
I am very confused with the CPC's newest 6-10 and 8-14 day temp outlooks. As if they are believing the GFS 100%.


I hadn't read the prognostic discussion in awhile, but both today and yesterday for 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks they gave their forecast confidence a "1" on a scale of 1-5.

QUOTE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 1 ON A SCALE FROM 1
TO 5, DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS, AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR ALASKA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 1 ON A SCALE
FROM 1 TO 5, DUE TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND BUT POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.


So it seems the latest maps are just their best guess at this point. I wonder if they were spoiled by the winter, just say above average and you're pretty much guaranteed to be correct. Now they're going to have to put a bit of work in to their forecast. dry.gif

This post has been edited by Slightly Weathered: Mar 27 2012, 03:30 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 27 2012, 06:52 PM
Post #76




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,753
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Slightly Weathered @ Mar 27 2012, 03:29 PM) *
So it seems the latest maps are just their best guess at this point. I wonder if they were spoiled by the winter, just say above average and you're pretty much guaranteed to be correct. Now they're going to have to put a bit of work in to their forecast. dry.gif






--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Mar 27 2012, 07:59 PM
Post #77




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





Long range GFS 18z... coming in with guns blazin for April. Wouldn't expect anything less this year. 4 storms for the CONUS from the 4th to the 12th blink.gif That does not include the 1st one for next week laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Mar 27 2012, 09:24 PM
Post #78




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,216
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(Slightly Weathered @ Mar 27 2012, 03:29 PM) *
I hadn't read the prognostic discussion in awhile, but both today and yesterday for 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks they gave their forecast confidence a "1" on a scale of 1-5.



So it seems the latest maps are just their best guess at this point. I wonder if they were spoiled by the winter, just say above average and you're pretty much guaranteed to be correct. Now they're going to have to put a bit of work in to their forecast. dry.gif

The NAEFS doesn't offer as much help anymore as well - the dark red road for the entire eastern half of the US ends here:

Attached File  2012032712_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_186.png ( 47.85K ) Number of downloads: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 28 2012, 07:00 AM
Post #79




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,753
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 27 2012, 09:24 PM) *
The NAEFS doesn't offer as much help anymore as well - the dark red road for the entire eastern half of the US ends here:

Attached File  2012032712_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_186.png ( 47.85K ) Number of downloads: 3


Actually, it helps alot. The fact that the probability goes down in this period is saying mounds.

However, it's short-lived.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  28MAR12_NAEFS.JPG ( 153.98K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 28 2012, 03:33 PM
Post #80




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,753
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





It cracks me up to see people running with the CPC outlooks showing below normal temps along the MidAtl/NE coast with "I told you so" on FB. Funny is they don't include the disco which gives that said graphic low probabilities.

CODE
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 28 2012

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2012

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN
OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. INDICATING A TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, A WEAK
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND A TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CONUS, BUT THE EUROPEAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A PATTERN LIKE ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEANS,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THAT PATTERN. TODAY'S BLEND CHART INDICATES A WEAK
RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST, AND A RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF ALASKA.

ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. ENHANCED ODDS FOR
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THERE
ARE ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST.
MJO COMPOSITES (SEE
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREC...S/TEMPERATURE/)
KEYED TO PHASE 8 AND TELECONNECTIONS ON THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER
NEAR THE WEST COAST SUPPORT THIS PATTERN. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD, A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, BUT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS STRENGTH AND SPEED. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW DEEP
IT MAY BE AND HOW MUCH IT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS LEADS TO A
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THERE ARE GREATER ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THE RIDGE FORECAST
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHILE MOST TOOLS SUPPORT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND IN NEW ENGLAND.

IN ALASKA, THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE PANHANDLE. ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR
NORTHWEST ALASKA, WHILE THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY
8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1
TO 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT POOR AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2012

THE WEEK-2 UPPER AIR FORECAST INDICATES A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, A TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST, AND A WEAK
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN A ZONAL, WEST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE CONUS. THE AO IS CURRENTLY NEUTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL.

TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN.
SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN
CREATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW
A LARGE AMOUNT OF RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE PATTERN OF THE U.S. AND WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL BLEND.

THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS, AND ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. MJO COMPOSITES (SEE
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREC...S/TEMPERATURE/)
KEYED TO PHASE 1 AND TELECONNECTIONS ON THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORT MUCH OF THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS INDICATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WHERE THERE IS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY. GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH FORECAST ONSHORE FLOW AND SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE REGION,
WHILE MOST TOOLS INDICATE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHEAST.

ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN NORTHERN ALASKA,
ASSOCIATED WITH FORECAST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE PANHANDLE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS THE
MOST LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, WHILE THERE ARE ENHANCED
ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE
FROM 1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT POOR AGREEMENT
AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.


FORECASTER: SARAH MARQUARDT


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

13 Pages V  « < 2 3 4 5 6 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 24th April 2014 - 09:48 AM