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> Tropical Storm Rina, 10AM CDT: TS 70MPH - 989MB - NNW @ 6MPH
jdrenken
post Oct 21 2011, 09:41 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110211231
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 138N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,



QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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+Quote Post
snowrawrsnow
post Oct 21 2011, 01:21 PM
Post #2




Rank: Tornado
**

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Posts: 452
Joined: 6-July 11
From: New Castle, PA
Member No.: 25,804





QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CENTERED
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


--------------------
~Snowy♥
QUOTE
There's a blaze of light in every word
It doesn't matter which you heard
The holy or the broken Hallelujah
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jdrenken
post Oct 21 2011, 03:53 PM
Post #3




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Member No.: 14,521





OPC's thoughts...

96hr


NHC/TPC

72hr


HPC

Day 6


Day 7


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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snowrawrsnow
post Oct 21 2011, 07:22 PM
Post #4




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QUOTE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Looks like we'll have our next TD within the next couple days.


--------------------
~Snowy♥
QUOTE
There's a blaze of light in every word
It doesn't matter which you heard
The holy or the broken Hallelujah
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jdrenken
post Oct 21 2011, 10:00 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110220031
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 802W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 96, 2011102118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 805W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 96, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


--------------------
QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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WEATHERFREAK
post Oct 23 2011, 12:25 PM
Post #6




Rank: Tornado
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If it does develop by mid-late week it'll definably get picked up by an intense eastern conus trough!


--------------------
"Windy has wings to fly".
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jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 12:39 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BORDER
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.



QUOTE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 22 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 14.6N 82.5W
E. 23/1830Z TO 23/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/2000Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 22/1205Z.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 03:11 PM
Post #8




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WNW winds...but pretty decent winds at the same time. With how the NHC has labeled some systems this year, it wouldn't surprise me they pull the trigger.

QUOTE
URNT15 KNHC 232004
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 27 20111023
195430 1543N 08217W 9873 00158 0055 +234 +215 334015 017 020 001 00
195500 1543N 08216W 9877 00155 0055 +224 +217 332015 016 024 004 00
195530 1543N 08214W 9876 00154 0053 +226 +220 316018 018 025 003 03
195600 1543N 08212W 9880 00152 0052 +235 +221 306019 020 028 001 00
195630 1543N 08211W 9888 00145 0053 +238 +223 320017 018 023 001 03
195700 1544N 08209W 9874 00155 0051 +235 +220 327017 018 020 000 00
195730 1544N 08207W 9881 00149 0052 +237 +219 326017 018 020 002 00
195800 1544N 08206W 9876 00154 0052 +235 +221 325017 018 021 000 00
195830 1544N 08204W 9872 00154 0050 +235 +224 329015 016 019 000 00
195900 1544N 08202W 9880 00152 0055 +235 +226 323015 016 018 000 00
195930 1545N 08200W 9873 00163 0060 +240 +227 330013 014 020 000 00
200000 1545N 08159W 9881 00159 0063 +243 +229 337012 013 017 000 00
200030 1545N 08157W 9879 00161 0063 +246 +232 332009 010 013 000 00
200100 1546N 08155W 9883 00161 0064 +249 +232 335003 007 010 000 00
200130 1546N 08153W 9880 00163 0064 +250 +228 149007 009 008 000 00
200200 1546N 08151W 9880 00163 0063 +250 +228 151011 012 013 000 00
200230 1547N 08149W 9883 00158 0062 +250 +229 155013 014 013 000 00
200300 1547N 08148W 9880 00161 0063 +248 +230 156014 014 012 000 00
200330 1548N 08146W 9882 00160 0064 +245 +229 159014 014 012 001 00
200400 1548N 08144W 9880 00163 0065 +246 +229 166015 015 011 000 00
$$
;


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 03:12 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al182011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110231955
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
EIGHTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 18, 2011, TD, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL182011
AL, 18, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 18, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 18, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 18, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 18, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 802W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 18, 2011102118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 805W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 18, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 18, 2011102206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 18, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 814W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 18, 2011102218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 814W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 18, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 136N, 814W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 18, 2011102306, , BEST, 0, 140N, 812W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, 0,
AL, 18, 2011102312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 811W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 90, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 18, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 25, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 65, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M,


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 03:46 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


--------------------
QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 07:27 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY.


THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA BUOY IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 08:32 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

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Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Looks like we will have a name at the next update.
QUOTE
AL, 18, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 817W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M,
AL, 18, 2011102400, , BEST, 0, 161N, 820W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 60, 1010, 225, 50, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M,


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 09:51 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INFORMATION FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


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jdrenken
post Oct 23 2011, 09:53 PM
Post #14




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Posts: 32,925
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QUOTE
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 33-35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THESE
WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN GUSTS. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO HAD TO AVOID STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS... THEREFORE...
UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. SINCE THEN... HOWEVER...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...
WHICH IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STRONGER WINDS IN THAT
REGION AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY
. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING...AND THE MOST RECENT 2-HOUR AVERAGE IS T2.7/39
KT. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM RINA...THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON.

RINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF NEAR 30C FOR THE NEXT 72-96
HOURS. IN ADDITION...DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOME VERY HIGH UPPER-OCEAN CONTENT THAT
IS MORE THAN 10 TIMES THE VALUE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EVEN MORE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS RINA MOVES UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT AND VENTILATION
AVAILABLE FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING
FACTOR IS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CYCLONE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODEL...LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 KT BASED ON RECON FIXES. THE
FORECAST TRACK DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT THE
GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM THE CURRENT POSITION HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTED. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN SATELLITE
AND UPPER-AIR DATA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTED FORECAST SCENARIO
CALLS FOR RINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF RINA...FORCING THE CYCLONE ON
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DAY 4. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW RINA TO TURN
NORTHWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS..AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...HWRF...AND ECMWF
MODEL TRACKS.


IN THE SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THREATS FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS WHERE 8-15 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN DURING THE PAST 3 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.4N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.8N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.3N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.7N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.9N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 18.9N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 20.0N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 24 2011, 09:08 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

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Posts: 32,925
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 82.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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jdrenken
post Oct 24 2011, 09:09 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 32,925
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RINA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION WITH A COUPLE OF
ADJACENT SMALLER CLUSTERS...BUT NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS.
VERY LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS. RINA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL BUT IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT LESSENING
OF THE SHEAR COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE AND RADIOSONDE DATA
SHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EXISTS
JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM. GIVEN THESE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LGEM GUIDANCE AND BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

USING A COMBINATION OF CENTER FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/5. A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WILL SOON BYPASS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA...A WEAK
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF RINA. THIS STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST...BUT AT A
VERY SLOW RATE OF FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH
ARE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GFDL AND HWRF. THESE LATTER
MODELS ARE PREDICTING RINA TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE THAT WOULD
RESPOND TO THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
GIVEN THE PREDICTED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.7N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.0N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.4N 83.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

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WEATHERFREAK
post Oct 24 2011, 11:30 AM
Post #17




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 379
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From: Sarasota, FL.
Member No.: 6,152





A good chance this'll feed into the EC storm this weekend.


--------------------
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Superstorm93
post Oct 24 2011, 11:51 AM
Post #18




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--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
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snowrawrsnow
post Oct 24 2011, 01:13 PM
Post #19




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From: New Castle, PA
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QUOTE
000
WTNT63 KNHC 241804
TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS STRENGTHENED. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
UPGRADE RINA TO A HURRICANE AND TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN


QUOTE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.


Nearly sub 990's, and it seems like there MIGHT be an eye forming.

This post has been edited by snowrawrsnow: Oct 24 2011, 01:15 PM


--------------------
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QUOTE
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It doesn't matter which you heard
The holy or the broken Hallelujah
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Fire/Rescue
post Oct 24 2011, 01:17 PM
Post #20




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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Oct 24 2011, 12:51 PM) *

Very nice image....look well developed.
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